Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Festus said: As we debate the various X-ECS, riddle me this. If you could design the perfect winter storm for PA, how would it evolve, what features would be where and when, etc. Must use parameters that are in the realm of possibility. First week of January Temps below 20 at onset and throughout the duration of the storm Instant stickage to all surfaces immediately 30" of snow with a layer of sleet mixed in on the surface Temps in the teens by day, zero or below at night for at least the following 3-5 days Minimal drifting - drifting leaves too many open areas exposed that quickly become green even when it's cold 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Winds howling here past hour . Coming your way…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Light to moderate snow in HBG now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just seeing this...what a day at work. We are missing a TON of people due to illness. In my mind, and I'm an overthinker - amounts are a good starting point for sure, but it's only part of my consideration. For example, 8" of wind-driven snow is different than 8" of mid-March paste that is largely gone in 4 hours. So sometimes smaller amounts seem more significant to me than larger amounts do at other times. I like everyone's input - really, it is our own personal perception. Only thing I'd add to each list is the BECS criteria. For me, that's anything greater than 36". I say this because LNS has never had a storm that large, so that would be of biblical proportions to me. I feel like we get a BECS is March this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 39 minutes ago, Festus said: As we debate the various X-ECS, riddle me this. If you could design the perfect winter storm for PA, how would it evolve, what features would be where and when, etc. Must use parameters that are in the realm of possibility. Agree on early January and cold leading up to event so no surface temp or sun angle shenanigans. Would need some kind of bomb and stall or crawl scenario. At least 60 - 72 hour duration. Thundersnow in the evening for max effect (Cantore doing live feed and chasing the lightning would be icing on the cake). Also agree on not too much wind as power outages not cool. 30 - 40" for most. Want to get right on the edge but not risk structural collapse. Probably pressing that a bit at 3' though. So max snow but minimal damage to life and property. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Doesn't look good for the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Festus said: Agree on early January and cold leading up to event so no surface temp or sun angle shenanigans. Would need some kind of bomb and stall or crawl scenario. At least 60 - 72 hour duration. Thundersnow in the evening for max effect (Cantore doing live feed and chasing the lightning would be icing on the cake). Also agree on not too much wind as power outages not cool. 30 - 40" for most. Want to get right on the edge but not risk structural collapse. Probably pressing that a bit at 3' though. So max snow but minimal damage to life and property. That's exactly why I stopped at 30". More than enough snow, hopefully resulting in minimal or no damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The Low is in FL not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: The Low is in FL not good. Nothing good comes from Florida. Ever. Also roads here have caved again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 The GFS hates us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Nothing good comes from Florida. Ever. Also roads here have caved again. Very good more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, canderson said: Light to moderate snow in HBG now. Same here in Marysville. All surfaces covered again. Final event total to be determined! Not done yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 48 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just seeing this...what a day at work. We are missing a TON of people due to illness. In my mind, and I'm an overthinker - amounts are a good starting point for sure, but it's only part of my consideration. For example, 8" of wind-driven snow is different than 8" of mid-March paste that is largely gone in 4 hours. So sometimes smaller amounts seem more significant to me than larger amounts do at other times. I like everyone's input - really, it is our own personal perception. Only thing I'd add to each list is the BECS criteria. For me, that's anything greater than 36". I say this because LNS has never had a storm that large, so that would be of biblical proportions to me. Hope you avoid the illness. The long response! LOL. I asked because Superstorm (I think) said Hecs and I said it was not a Hecs, felt bad, and thought I better find out other opinions. I look at it in the thought of Hecs should only be something that happens once or twice a lifetime and BECS should be a disaster which is why I personally do not 36" is disaster in most cases. I guess it is if you are 2'8" tall and trying to take a Jebwalk. Speaking of Jebwalks, did you guys notice he was sort of down before this last storm. LOL. Dude could make losing a million dollars sound like a win usually but not this last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, canderson said: Nothing good comes from Florida. Ever. Also roads here have caved again. Our roads have never uncaved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 GFS wants nothing to do with that weekend system.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 ICON wants to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hope you avoid the illness. The long response! LOL. I asked because Superstorm (I think) said Hecs and I said it was not a Hecs, felt bad, and thought I better find out other opinions. I look at it in the thought of Hecs should only be something that happens once or twice a lifetime and BECS should be a disaster which is why I personally do not 36" is disaster in most cases. I guess it is if you are 2'8" tall and trying to take a Jebwalk. Speaking of Jebwalks, did you guys notice he was sort of down before this last storm. LOL. Dude could make losing a million dollars sound like a win usually but not this last storm. I did not notice that about Jeb, hopefully he's okay. He certainly brings...passion to the boards. He's Blizz on steroids. LOL My road was a slushy quagmire early this morning. 12 hours later, it's an ever so slightly less slushy quagmire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 I need no snow Friday night. I pick this up, and don't really want it's maiden voyage to be in a snowstorm. That's for later after I put some dry miles on it... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: I need no snow Friday night. I pick this up, and don't really want it's maiden voyage to be in a snowstorm. That's for later after I put some dry miles on it... Congrats. At this risk of sounding much younger than I am, that is BOSS. Those tires look great. No more snow issues for you. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Festus said: As we debate the various X-ECS, riddle me this. If you could design the perfect winter storm for PA, how would it evolve, what features would be where and when, etc. Must use parameters that are in the realm of possibility. blizz of 16 on a wed/thurs. Wont be too picky on the day, cause I'm easy like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Superstorm said: ICON wants to show it . Icon has it but wide right and very similar to the Gem. No Go on the JMA or Nogaps. Right now it literally is just the Euro as to affecting PA. Since we are 4 days (or less) away, grading starts...GFS can solidify its spot or the Euro can put some money back in the bank with a long awaited victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Congrats. At this risk of sounding much younger than I am, that is BOSS. Those tires look great. No more snow issues for you. LOL. Thanks! Nope, and I'll enjoy playing in the snow, just not the first night...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 46 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Our roads have never uncaved. If they were plowed they cleared off nicely here. We had a bit of sun and the wind did the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: If they were plowed they cleared off nicely here. We had a bit of sun and the wind did the rest. We never got above 30 this afternoon and the excessive sleet was just like a sheet of ice on the roads as it did raise above freezing for a short period last night. I just helped the guy delivering my grocery's and he said down in Waynesboro there is no ice on the roads so its localized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Hearing rumors that the Nam has been crowned the King but even I do not buy that. King GFS for now. #2 could be Nam but it was so poor on Summer temps, not sure I buy that either. But King Nam is a thing now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Voyager said: I need no snow Friday night. I pick this up, and don't really want it's maiden voyage to be in a snowstorm. That's for later after I put some dry miles on it... I’m a sucker for the stealth look. I had a xterra and blacked out the rims and bought bf mud terrains for it. My current truck has the flat black rims and muds as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Oh boy Erie and Cleveland getting excited :-). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Oh boy Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 18, 2022 Share Posted January 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Erie and Cleveland getting excited :-). After last storm I don't trust any model outside of 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 18, 2022 Author Share Posted January 18, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Some tucked ones baby Understanding that its a timing situation, its still very strange the GFS and Euro are so far apart when the EPS is solidly behind the op. I see some more GFS like positions on that EPS map but more tucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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