Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 17 here now after a low of 6. My point and click was 2-4" last night, I've been lowered to 1-3". For those that get more, enjoy! You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"? Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting. Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are up 15 from the low. 18 with a low of 3. Pretty expected I think. Mid 20's to upper 20's when the snow gets here and maybe some drop when it moistens the column. It certainly was expected, but I was still weenie wishing that it would be colder later so that, perhaps, we wouldn't go as far above freezing tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Voyager said: It certainly was expected, but I was still weenie wishing that it would be colder later so that, perhaps, we wouldn't go as far above freezing tomorrow morning. Yea, it would be great if it was in the mid teens when it started as to keep the plain rain at bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"? Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting. Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you. 1-3" seems to ride up to Elizabethtown, where they transition to 2-4". Honestly, if I see 2" I'll call it a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You are near MDT and only have a point and click of 1-3"? Personally I would say 3.8" for MDT if I was forecasting. Surprised they do not go 2-4 for you. You’re a bit over my prediction for MDT. I’m going with 2.9”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1-3" seems to ride up to Elizabethtown, where they transition to 2-4". Honestly, if I see 2" I'll call it a win. Going to be a tough measure this go around. Probably dark when the transition begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: You’re a bit over my prediction for MDT. I’m going with 2.9”. I'll go with 2.6" for the airport. You probably get to 3", Blizz might tack on a half inch from there. This is just based off climo more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I'll go with 2.6" for the airport. You probably get to 3", Blizz might tack on a half inch from there. This is just based off climo more than anything else. Still some weird stuff with the forum. Check out what it shows Training posting on as to a thread 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll go with 2.6" for the airport. You probably get to 3", Blizz might tack on a half inch from there. This is just based off climo more than anything else. It’ll al be scattered when we wake up anyway lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Good morning from beautiful West Hempfield Township in Lancaster County, where we’re just hoping to have some white left on the ground come Monday morning. Dropped to 4 last night but temp rising quick, up to 18 now. Haven’t followed much recently, as I was out celebrating the 40th Bday last night. Feeling a little rough this morning ha. Good luck to everyone’s snow chances and football teams today! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 17 here now after a low of 6. My point and click was 2-4" last night, I've been lowered to 1-3". For those that get more, enjoy! Lol, give it an hour and it will change, then give it another hour…more changes, then it will change again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 33 minutes ago, canderson said: I was curious so I asked CTP about why there are no wind advisories. They had a great response: Chris Anderson When there is already a winter storm advisory or warning in effect for an area, there isn't a need/requirement to add another/separate advisory. At the point/time when the other warnings and advisories are/will not be in effect, then a wind advisory is recommended. Looking at the current forecast, this point is still 24+ hrs out for just a handful (3-4) counties. There is still time to discern whether or not the marginal wind gusts (forecast to be right at or just above 40KT) warrant issuance of a stand-alone wind advisory. If forecast confidence in a period of 40+KT gusts remains or increases for these 3 or 4 counties (and for the 3 to 6 hours such conditions might last after the winter headlines expire) we probably will do it. Gusty winds are already mentioned in much of the forecast information we have out there. Can you please ask them why they have continually changed their forecast the last 2 days before the event even started? What happened to making a reasonable forecast & then maybe changing it once if needed before the event? They will change in the middle of the event and then say they had it right all along! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 From HenryMargusity this morning: The storm is underway and has overachieved in many areas of Arkansas into Tennessee and Mississippi. Snowfall has been over 7 inches in many locations and it’s still snowing hard across Tennessee into parts of Mississippi. Snow is also heavy across the western Carolina’s with ice also heavy in many areas of the Carolina’s this morning. Severe storms including tornadoes are moving across south Florida where SPC took a major bust on the severe weather potential. The surface map shows that low pressure is developing across southern Georgia and a reflection of low with the upper level system is back over Mississippi. With the wedge of cold air so entrenched, I think the low will have to go toward the coast despite the models saying that the low center is going to attack the cold and just ride through it warming everyone up above freezing. We have to see just how much that cold air will hold it’s ground as the low comes up. Heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour will come north up the mountains today into this evening. We may have a few hours of snow evaporating due to the dryness of the air. Heavy snow will move into western PA, NY, Northeast and Ontario tonight and last into Monday morning. These areas will see 12 inches perhaps more snow due to high ratios. Next weekend, we may have to go through this all over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Good morning from beautiful West Hempfield Township in Lancaster County, where we’re just hoping to have some white left on the ground come Monday morning. Dropped to 4 last night but temp rising quick, up to 18 now. Haven’t followed much recently, as I was out celebrating the 40th Bday last night. Feeling a little rough this morning ha. Good luck to everyone’s snow chances and football teams today! Happy belated birthday friend! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll go with 2.6" for the airport. You probably get to 3", Blizz might tack on a half inch from there. This is just based off climo more than anything else. I’m going with 4.1 at MDT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Good morning from beautiful West Hempfield Township in Lancaster County, where we’re just hoping to have some white left on the ground come Monday morning. Dropped to 4 last night but temp rising quick, up to 18 now. Haven’t followed much recently, as I was out celebrating the 40th Bday last night. Feeling a little rough this morning ha. Good luck to everyone’s snow chances and football teams today! Happy 40th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, give it an hour and it will change, then give it another hour…more changes, then it will change again! Exactly! And that's why I'm basing my "guess" on climo more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: From HenryMargusity this morning: The storm is underway and has overachieved in many areas of Arkansas into Tennessee and Mississippi. Snowfall has been over 7 inches in many locations and it’s still snowing hard across Tennessee into parts of Mississippi. Snow is also heavy across the western Carolina’s with ice also heavy in many areas of the Carolina’s this morning. Severe storms including tornadoes are moving across south Florida where SPC took a major bust on the severe weather potential. The surface map shows that low pressure is developing across southern Georgia and a reflection of low with the upper level system is back over Mississippi. With the wedge of cold air so entrenched, I think the low will have to go toward the coast despite the models saying that the low center is going to attack the cold and just ride through it warming everyone up above freezing. We have to see just how much that cold air will hold it’s ground as the low comes up. Heavy snow with rates of 1 inch per hour will come north up the mountains today into this evening. We may have a few hours of snow evaporating due to the dryness of the air. Heavy snow will move into western PA, NY, Northeast and Ontario tonight and last into Monday morning. These areas will see 12 inches perhaps more snow due to high ratios. Next weekend, we may have to go through this all over again. Henry...the king of hype. I hope he's wearing his Big Daddy hat today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Exactly! And that's why I'm basing my "guess" on climo more than anything. That usually works fairly well for most events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Can you please ask them why they have continually changed their forecast the last 2 days before the event even started? What happened to making a reasonable forecast & then maybe changing it once if needed before the event? They will change in the middle of the event and then say they had it right all along! They addressed this actually in the post I shared on the last page. I personally have no issues with them tweaking forecasts as they go. They’ve onky reply changed MDT 3 times - from 3-7, 3-5 and now 2-4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I’m going with 4.1 at MDT That is a fair call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 HRRR has 5 hours of moderate or better snow at MDT. So if it could get to 1" an hour average we could have an over producer there. Latest is 2-5 for most of the LSV with the ridges/somewhat higher ground in Western Cumberland going 5-6 it appears. Lots of rain East of the Susq and well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 It has gotten overcast here very quickly. Hopefully that slows the temp rise. Would love to start out the precip with temp near 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Henry...the king of hype. I hope he's wearing his Big Daddy hat today. HRRR has over 1" of rain for you. Dry slot is to your west. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: HRRR has over 1" of rain for you. Dry slot is to your west. Crazy. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'll take it. Drought cancel! LOL. If this was all snow, Rou'ville would be hurting. You would be pushing 20" and I would be 6-8". LOL. Sharp cutoff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not sure if the 12z GFS was posted. Here is 10-1 & Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 12z ICON steady as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not sure if the 12z GFS was posted. Here is 10-1 & Kuchera.Totals up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 15/4 @ 12:00 give me 1” qpf and I’ll roll the dice on precip type 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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