MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Good morning y'all If anyone wants to hear my forecast for their respective area, feel free to tag me and ask me and I'll come up with a forecast for snow/ice. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 First 12Z, HHHR, still has 6-7 hours of snow as the initial primary deepens to 991 pulling into S/W PA. A small step back from earlier accums. About 1/2" less at MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: First 12Z, HHHR, still has 6-7 hours of snow as the initial primary deepens to 991 pulling into S/W PA. A small step back from earlier accums. About 1/2" less at MDT. Nam's are somewhat similar in distribution of snow in the LSV but about 1" less. Quite a bit less farther west. Axis of "heaviest" snow really pushing out into Ohio and far N/W PA so far on 12Z's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: First 12Z, HHHR, still has 6-7 hours of snow as the initial primary deepens to 991 pulling into S/W PA. A small step back from earlier accums. About 1/2" less at MDT. I guess the beginning of the kiss of death for snow lovers. Maybe with each passing hour till we get to go time. HHHr wont have any for the burg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: I guess the beginning of the kiss of death for snow lovers. Maybe with each passing hour till we get to go time. HHHr wont have any for the burg. We are getting snow. It was just a slight pull back. RE: so far no surprises to the current forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: We are getting snow. It was just a slight pull back. RE: so far no surprises to the current forecast. Just wondering if the low level will hold on a while longer then forecast. Sometimes models are too fast on eroding it. But what do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Just wondering if the low level will hold on a while longer then forecast. Sometimes models are too fast on eroding it. But what do I know. Yea, will be interesting nowcasting. I think the most snow friendly models are going 6-7 hours. If the real low level holds longer than it would mean more frz. Hrrr has 6 hours of plain rain before the dry slot gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Maybe a MET or someone who knows more can answer this. I keep seeing the NAM put out some pretty high level precip totals in what should be all snow, as in 1.5 in qpf, but the snow depth change map is only showing like 6-8 inches of snow. One, are those maps worthless, and two do some of the models struggle with thinking there are P-Type issue when there really aren't? I know people have been saying the same thing about the UKIE where it shows 1.2 inches of QPF for example and 8 inches of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 13/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Trends Nams have been creeping east each run since last evening. I think the Nams line up with the other models fairly well right now as to low progression. Just about an 1" less for us. I ran through all the less common Meso's and 2-4" for the LSV and near counties seems to be the primary thought with almost everything 12Z so far. HRRR is more like 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 13/4 9/1 after a low of 4 looks like hrrr gets me 3-4 hours of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Good morning y'all If anyone wants to hear my forecast for their respective area, feel free to tag me and ask me and I'll come up with a forecast for snow/ice. I'll nag you...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 "Hrrr." I'll take "Model or Constipation" for $500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: I'll nag you...lol I like 4-8" for your area. Should come down pretty hard on the front end thump. Enjoy! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Nam went from 1/2 "-1" around the m/d to 2-4+ . Comparing to 0z . It could still be trending more up to game time . Nowcast time though . Yea, it definitely trended back to be close to other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CTP posted to Facebook… 520 AM 1/16/2022: A significant "Nor'Easter," one type of East Coast snowstorm (ECS), will affect the entire eastern seaboard today into Monday. Note the track/path of the center of the low pressure area (noted as a red "L" on the maps attached) will cross PA from south to north, likely just to the west of the Mainstem Susquehanna River. This track is usually one which allows a great deal of warm air to be drawn in from the Atlantic Ocean, and deeper (farther west) into PA. This results in much more mix precipitation and plain rain than would a track which would follow the NJ coast or the Delaware River. The track of the low has become much more certain over the past two days. Thus, any earlier forecasts which allowed for extreme amounts of snow over the Susq Valley are looking like they will not come to fruition. Usually, as we get closer to a (potential) storm, the forecasts improve in timing and precipitation type and amounts. This storm, and how the forecast has evolved over the last few days, is a good example of why we ask that you "stay tuned" and "check back for updates." This is especially true when there are many days to go before a storm could arrive. So, please do not latch on to the first forecast you see, especially if it is just a snowfall amount map. So many things can change regarding the interactions of all the meteorological conditions which influence a storm over the course of many days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: CTP posted to Facebook… 520 AM 1/16/2022: A significant "Nor'Easter," one type of East Coast snowstorm (ECS), will affect the entire eastern seaboard today into Monday. Note the track/path of the center of the low pressure area (noted as a red "L" on the maps attached) will cross PA from south to north, likely just to the west of the Mainstem Susquehanna River. This track is usually one which allows a great deal of warm air to be drawn in from the Atlantic Ocean, and deeper (farther west) into PA. This results in much more mix precipitation and plain rain than would a track which would follow the NJ coast or the Delaware River. The track of the low has become much more certain over the past two days. Thus, any earlier forecasts which allowed for extreme amounts of snow over the Susq Valley are looking like they will not come to fruition. Usually, as we get closer to a (potential) storm, the forecasts improve in timing and precipitation type and amounts. This storm, and how the forecast has evolved over the last few days, is a good example of why we ask that you "stay tuned" and "check back for updates." This is especially true when there are many days to go before a storm could arrive. So, please do not latch on to the first forecast you see, especially if it is just a snowfall amount map. So many things can change regarding the interactions of all the meteorological conditions which influence a storm over the course of many days. Wow, a scolding and lecture. Someone got up on the wrong side of the barometer. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Good morning y'all If anyone wants to hear my forecast for their respective area, feel free to tag me and ask me and I'll come up with a forecast for snow/ice. 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'll nag you...lol lol...I'm talking to my mom on the phone and I misread "tag" as being "nag"... 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I like 4-8" for your area. Should come down pretty hard on the front end thump. Enjoy! Thanks. I like the front end thump. I just wish we wouldn't warm above freezing at the surface. All the water logged snow and slush is going to turn into a rock once temps drop, and if I work tomorrow, I won't get it cleaned up before it re-freezes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Should be a good eve for many as the snow is falling and Steelers are kicking KC butts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Should be a good eve for many as the snow is falling and Steelers are kicking KC butts Hope so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Not sure if it was brought up yet but CTP added more counties to warnings including Mag. Warning also stats 50mph gust Really couldn’t ask for a better scenario with clear skies last night and our lowest temps of the season with clouds pushing in now to lock the cold in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Wow! Talk about a rapid temperature increase this morning. We went from -1.5 at 7:30am to 14.2 now at 10:00am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Good morning all. After reviewing the most recent 60 posts I can see that the majority of the models are still showing 5-6" of the snow thump. One thing I found interesting in the Euro surface maps was that it does not appear that any plain rain ever makes it to me. It wasn't showing much of any freezing rain. I don't know about sleet and if the sleet is part of the total snow accumulations. In any case, my low this morning was +4.3 degrees, by far the coldest temperature I've seen in I think 3 years. Temp is now up to 12.7 with a dew point of +1.4. Boy that air is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Good morning all. After reviewing the most recent 60 posts I can see that the majority of the models are still showing 5-6" of the snow thump. One thing I found interesting in the Euro surface maps was that it does not appear that any plain rain ever makes it to me. It wasn't showing much of any freezing rain. I don't know about sleet and if the sleet is part of the total snow accumulations. In any case, my low this morning was +4.3 degrees, by far the coldest temperature I've seen in I think 3 years. Temp is now up to 12.7 with a dew point of +1.4. Boy that air is dry. Its nice to see the dews staying low and not following the temp up. I’m up to 11 but dew is only 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 My point-n-click looks better than last night. They upped me from 2-4" to 3-6". Best news is that they only give me plain rain for one hour between 3-4am with an expected max temp of 37. That's pretty encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 My gridcast improved slightly Today Snow likely, mainly after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 24. Southeast wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Tonight Rain, snow and freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before 3am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 3am and 4am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain and freezing rain after 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 33 by 3am. Northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow, possibly mixed with rain and freezing rain, becoming all snow after 7am. High near 30. Breezy, with a west wind 7 to 12 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 This is mine. Warmer with a longer period of plain rain... Today A chance of snow after 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 26. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tonight Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 11pm, then snow and freezing rain between 11pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 38 by 4am. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. M.L.King Day Snow, possibly mixed with rain, becoming all snow after 10am. Temperature falling to around 29 by 5pm. Breezy, with a south wind 8 to 13 mph becoming west 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, Voyager said: Wow! Talk about a rapid temperature increase this morning. We went from -1.5 at 7:30am to 14.2 now at 10:00am. We are up 15 from the low. 18 with a low of 3. Pretty expected I think. Mid 20's to upper 20's when the snow gets here and maybe some drop when it moistens the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I was curious so I asked CTP about why there are no wind advisories. They had a great response: Chris Anderson When there is already a winter storm advisory or warning in effect for an area, there isn't a need/requirement to add another/separate advisory. At the point/time when the other warnings and advisories are/will not be in effect, then a wind advisory is recommended. Looking at the current forecast, this point is still 24+ hrs out for just a handful (3-4) counties. There is still time to discern whether or not the marginal wind gusts (forecast to be right at or just above 40KT) warrant issuance of a stand-alone wind advisory. If forecast confidence in a period of 40+KT gusts remains or increases for these 3 or 4 counties (and for the 3 to 6 hours such conditions might last after the winter headlines expire) we probably will do it. Gusty winds are already mentioned in much of the forecast information we have out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 17 here now after a low of 6. My point and click was 2-4" last night, I've been lowered to 1-3". For those that get more, enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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