Ruin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Lets go id be happy with a heavy thumb of 6 inch snow before any ice to help protect the snow then a bit of rain with temps falling later in the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks, I’ll take my chances with a moisture laden storm coming up from the south in mid January with bitter cold the day before the storm. We will see how it plays out. Also, side note, nice Sixers win tonight in Miami! They are 8 games over .500 on the season. They are 2-8 when I'm in the building. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Best GFS run for the LSV since Thursday pm. Maybe for LSV, but doesn't appear to change much in my location. Guess I'm just too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 No matter what happens tomorrow evening this system has been absolutely fascinating. Models have been uro is rock solid so if it is right major kudos). But we don’t see this type of thing much and it’s been interesting to watch develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks, I’ll take my chances with a moisture laden storm coming up from the south in mid January with bitter cold the day before the storm. We will see how it plays out. Also, side note, nice Sixers win tonight in Miami! I looked 3 times and pivotal shows mdt at less than 3" kuch on 0Z gfs. So many map issues recently. Maybe sleet issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Down to 9.7 - coldest on this station, which goes back 3 years. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I can't believe how consistent many of the models have been for me / Cumberland County. Very close to the 6" mark (in the middle of the county) with a little less to the east and a little more to the west. All it will take is 3 hours of 2"/hr snow for me to hit my target! Meanwhile I bottomed out here about 30 minutes ago at 10.9 degrees and for the moment it has reversed and I'm up to 11.7. Really great radiational cooling nights are always like this. The temps go down a few degrees, then stop, then go up a little bit, then stop, then start dropping again to a lower reading. The sky looked great tonight with the calm and crisp conditions along with almost a full moon directly up over my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I looked 3 times and pivotal shows mdt at less than 3" kuch on 0Z gfs. So many map issues recently. Maybe sleet issues? Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera. For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera. For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch. After reviewing again it is weird in that east of the Susq 10:1 gives higher amounts while west of the Susq it's Kuchera that gives higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Try using 10-1 and not Kuchera. For this storm 10-1 has shown slightly higher amounts versus Kuch. I tried both. It looks nothing like the map blizz posted. It does show the tongue of heavy snow down into Cumberland. Shows mdt and training at 2, 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 CTP’s latest discussion is heavily focused in the dry slot. I’d rather have it than sleet and rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 If you believe the 0Z GFS depiction, here are the maps for accumulated freezing rain, and then ice accretion from the ZR... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 I just called some friends in on this and it suspected that wxbell is including sleet due to changeover algorithm issues. I am not sold on that as it could be a pivotal issues but either way we do have two very different outputs. Obviously TT cannot be used. Either wxbell or pivotal is having an issue with the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I just called some friends in on this and it suspected that wxbell is including sleet due to changeover algorithm issues. I am not sold on that as it could be a pivotal issues but either way we do have two very different outputs. Obviously TT cannot be used. Either wxbell or pivotal is having an issue with the changeover. I would bet Pivotal is not so good. You get what you pay for…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Here is the 0z GFS again… close up … Kuchera, 10-1, sleet & freezing rain…, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I would bet Pivotal is not so good. You get what you pay for…. For wxbell to be right it would have to be over 1" an hour as mdt only has snow for about 4 hours per the research done. That was why the assumption was made that sleet was included. Its hours 22-25 at mdt. Flipped before hour 26. Could be a thump and be right. But either way, drastic differences between the maps. This may be a cause of some past confusion, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Down to 4.1 now. Curious to see if I can get to, or below, zero tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2022 Author Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Voyager said: Down to 4.1 now. Curious to see if I can get to, or below, zero tonight. We are down to 5 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are down to 5 here. Considering your location, that's pretty impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 @Bubbler86 @Itstrainingtime Check out the Canadian for later next week….Wow! It hasn’t loaded yet on Weatherbell, but they are discussing it in the Mid Atlantic Medium range thread. Impressive coastal snow storm that gets most of CTP with major snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ding ding ding before 1 am we hit our forecasted over night low in my area. 12 lets get to 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @Bubbler86 @Itstrainingtime Check out the Canadian for later next week….Wow! It hasn’t loaded yet on Weatherbell, but they are discussing it in the Mid Atlantic Medium range thread. Impressive coastal snow storm that gets most of CTP with major snow. 0z Euro has it too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro for today’s storm. Initial primary low up to WV, which helps the front end snow thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Then the low says hello to PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z Euro takes everyone back to some light snow Monday am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 0z Euro snow holds steady for CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6z HRRR still agrees with the Euro on Warning level snow to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 down to 8 4 temps lower then forecasted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 ok went to warm up the car cause of how cold it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 3 this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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