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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

@MillvilleWx

Thanks for the info.  Based upon your map, do you think the Catoctins up through South Mountain stand the highest impact with the locally higher ice.   2-4” of snow with .25” or more of ice plus wind would be a high impact  event 

No problem! I think in a local sense that area will have a higher chance of being impacted moderately to major. The elevation factor is key for them with orographic enhancement of the precip locally while locking in the cold temps at the surface. Blended guidance was fairly bullish for their impacts, so that is key in this forecast from myself. Those topographic features are important for an event like this. I honestly COULD be a little low on snow totals across the MD line, but it'll be +/- 1-2" max, so I'll hold what I have for the time being. Stay safe up there!

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9 minutes ago, Voyager said:

From what I heard, it even stropped at the county lines. Word on the street was that Schuylkill County roads were really bad last Sunday, but as soon as you got out of Tower City (and the Skook) and into Dauphin County on 209 at least, the roads went from bad to pretty good.

Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy.

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6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

No problem! I think in a local sense that area will have a higher chance of being impacted moderately to major. The elevation factor is key for them with orographic enhancement of the precip locally while locking in the cold temps at the surface. Blended guidance was fairly bullish for their impacts, so that is key in this forecast from myself. Those topographic features are important for an event like this. I honestly COULD be a little low on snow totals across the MD line, but it'll be +/- 1-2" max, so I'll hold what I have for the time being. Stay safe up there!

Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism?  Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce?  If the latter, what's the relative weighting?  Just curious how it works in your world.  Thanks!

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1 minute ago, canderson said:

Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy.

It could be. I know that Schuylkill doesn't always pre-treat like the other counties do. I'm thinking it comes down to budgeting as we don't have the population and tax base that most other counties do. It's really noticeable in the overall quality of the road maintenance itself, as our roads here in Schuylkill are generally in poor condition compared to others.

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Frederick and Washington counties have strong wording in warning 

WHAT...Snow changing to ice. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch.
* WHERE...In Maryland, Washington and Frederick MD Counties. In Virginia, Northern Fauquier and Western Loudoun Counties.

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour for a time late Sunday into Sunday evening, making roads nearly impassable for a time.

 

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5 minutes ago, Festus said:

Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism?  Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce?  If the latter, what's the relative weighting?  Just curious how it works in your world.  Thanks!

No problem! There's a method to the madness. One of the biggest things I utilize is the CIPS analogs with recognition of key features and then compare to previous events. I also have a pretty good memory for weather, so I remember setups with a similar evolution in certain areas of the forecast and weight that towards guidance. Blending guidance can be good for a complex situation, but sometimes intuition with the meteorology at hand can take precedence, especially for something historical or heavy climo based (Elevation dependent storms are big with this). Knowing your geography and how things typically unfold is important.

Nailing forecasts exactly is extremely difficult, but the key is to stay within a bounds that can verify an Advisory or Warning when you put one out. As an NWS met, I think about being within reason and adjustments up are okay compared to adjustments down. Impact based forecasting. I want to be as close to right as possible, but not missing too much. In this case, it's hard to create a forecast when the transition time frame is uber important. That can make or break a forecast.  

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3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

For my big winner, I'm sticking with my call from a few days ago -- Mt. Mitchell, NC.

As for IMBY, I'll put the Over/Under for snowfall in Lancaster at 1.5".  Sadly.

I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops.  And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting. 

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CTP might wait until tonight for Warning & Advisory announcements.

They just reissued their Watch with some updated wording.

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-160700-
/O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-York-
Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,
Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7
  inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch
  possible. The greatest chance of the heavier snow amounts will
  be across the Central Mountains. Winds could gust as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour
  possible Sunday evening into Sunday night.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

No problem! There's a method to the madness. One of the biggest things I utilize is the CIPS analogs with recognition of key features and then compare to previous events. I also have a pretty good memory for weather, so I remember setups with a similar evolution in certain areas of the forecast and weight that towards guidance. Blending guidance can be good for a complex situation, but sometimes intuition with the meteorology at hand can take precedence, especially for something historical or heavy climo based (Elevation dependent storms are big with this). Knowing your geography and how things typically unfold is important.

Nailing forecasts exactly is extremely difficult, but the key is to stay within a bounds that can verify an Advisory or Warning when you put one out. As an NWS met, I think about being within reason and adjustments up are okay compared to adjustments down. Impact based forecasting. I want to be as close to right as possible, but not missing too much. In this case, it's hard to create a forecast when the transition time frame is uber important. That can make or break a forecast.  

Thanks.  Very interesting and enlightening.  WAY back when (we're talking the Barry Walton era), I was a Meteorology major at Millersville but alas, I switched to Physics and and moved on from there.  But I've always retained weather as a hobby and have the upmost respect for those who practice the craft in the real world.  Your outputs can effect and in many cases save people's lives.  Thanks for your work.  It is much appreciated!

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Hey guys! Just a heads up with the European output. It is a model that struggles a lot of time with the finer transition periods and is likely missing some ZR in the mix. There will likely still be some freezing rain to contend with, despite what the model signifies. This is where mesos come in handy. Some areas may see little ice, but other areas that typically hold the cold better will, so keep that in the back of your thoughts for the storm. 

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I am warned. 

 

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service State College PA

125 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

 

PAZ006-010-011-017-024-033-034-160900-

/O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/

/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/

Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-Bedford-

Including the cities of Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway,

Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Johnstown, Somerset, and Bedford

125 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022

 

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST

MONDAY...

 

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow

  accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of around

  one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph on Monday.

 

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

 

* WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday.

 

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous

  conditions could impact the morning commute.

 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour

  possible late Sunday and Sunday night.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania

Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all

travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant

winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous.

 

Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway

and traffic conditions.

 

To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook

page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp.

 

&&

 

$$

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24 minutes ago, Hoar_Frost said:

This is only tangentially related to the storm, but the point forecast for State College for tonight's low temperature, 5 degrees, if it verifies, would be the lowest temperature here since 2 February 2019.  

Good luck with this storm out there. Hopefully sleet/ice don’t cut into it too much. Lots of sleetfests when I went to PSU. 

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1 hour ago, Festus said:

I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops.  And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting. 

Haha this is likely true.  I should also clarify I'm talking KLNS.  Obviously there could well be significant differences between, say, south of Quarryville and up north of you towards the Lebanon line.

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