Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Hopefully someone has time to post or review the euro in 30 min? Curious. I’ll be all over it for the team Sir! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: @MillvilleWx Thanks for the info. Based upon your map, do you think the Catoctins up through South Mountain stand the highest impact with the locally higher ice. 2-4” of snow with .25” or more of ice plus wind would be a high impact event No problem! I think in a local sense that area will have a higher chance of being impacted moderately to major. The elevation factor is key for them with orographic enhancement of the precip locally while locking in the cold temps at the surface. Blended guidance was fairly bullish for their impacts, so that is key in this forecast from myself. Those topographic features are important for an event like this. I honestly COULD be a little low on snow totals across the MD line, but it'll be +/- 1-2" max, so I'll hold what I have for the time being. Stay safe up there! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Voyager said: From what I heard, it even stropped at the county lines. Word on the street was that Schuylkill County roads were really bad last Sunday, but as soon as you got out of Tower City (and the Skook) and into Dauphin County on 209 at least, the roads went from bad to pretty good. Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No problem! I think in a local sense that area will have a higher chance of being impacted moderately to major. The elevation factor is key for them with orographic enhancement of the precip locally while locking in the cold temps at the surface. Blended guidance was fairly bullish for their impacts, so that is key in this forecast from myself. Those topographic features are important for an event like this. I honestly COULD be a little low on snow totals across the MD line, but it'll be +/- 1-2" max, so I'll hold what I have for the time being. Stay safe up there! Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism? Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce? If the latter, what's the relative weighting? Just curious how it works in your world. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Wouldn’t that just be a difference in pretreating? All around here they dumped all the solvent and cinders and roads were never icy. It could be. I know that Schuylkill doesn't always pre-treat like the other counties do. I'm thinking it comes down to budgeting as we don't have the population and tax base that most other counties do. It's really noticeable in the overall quality of the road maintenance itself, as our roads here in Schuylkill are generally in poor condition compared to others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Friends to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Friends to the south It won’t be long now for CTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Frederick and Washington counties have strong wording in warning WHAT...Snow changing to ice. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 inches and ice accumulations of one tenth to three tenths of an inch. * WHERE...In Maryland, Washington and Frederick MD Counties. In Virginia, Northern Fauquier and Western Loudoun Counties. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could fall at 1 to 3 inches per hour for a time late Sunday into Sunday evening, making roads nearly impassable for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 For my big winner, I'm sticking with my call from a few days ago -- Mt. Mitchell, NC. As for IMBY, I'll put the Over/Under for snowfall in Lancaster at 1.5". Sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Arctic air is still drilling into PA. Dew points are currently below zero across most of PA. Something tells me this will not be so easy to dislodge tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Festus said: Quick question - when you analyze a complex storm like this and have to nail down an exact forecast, what's the mechanism? Do you just blend model output or factor in some forecasting experience that no model can reproduce? If the latter, what's the relative weighting? Just curious how it works in your world. Thanks! No problem! There's a method to the madness. One of the biggest things I utilize is the CIPS analogs with recognition of key features and then compare to previous events. I also have a pretty good memory for weather, so I remember setups with a similar evolution in certain areas of the forecast and weight that towards guidance. Blending guidance can be good for a complex situation, but sometimes intuition with the meteorology at hand can take precedence, especially for something historical or heavy climo based (Elevation dependent storms are big with this). Knowing your geography and how things typically unfold is important. Nailing forecasts exactly is extremely difficult, but the key is to stay within a bounds that can verify an Advisory or Warning when you put one out. As an NWS met, I think about being within reason and adjustments up are okay compared to adjustments down. Impact based forecasting. I want to be as close to right as possible, but not missing too much. In this case, it's hard to create a forecast when the transition time frame is uber important. That can make or break a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: For my big winner, I'm sticking with my call from a few days ago -- Mt. Mitchell, NC. As for IMBY, I'll put the Over/Under for snowfall in Lancaster at 1.5". Sadly. I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops. And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Arctic air is still drilling into PA. Dew points are currently below zero across all of PA. Something tells me this will not be so easy to dislodge tomorrow night. That is something JB was eluding to earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Looks like nice thump to dry slot with little ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 CTP might wait until tonight for Warning & Advisory announcements. They just reissued their Watch with some updated wording. Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063>065-160700- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton- Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry- Cumberland-Adams-York- Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Newport, Carlisle, Gettysburg, and York 1227 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to one tenth of an inch possible. The greatest chance of the heavier snow amounts will be across the Central Mountains. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour possible Sunday evening into Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: No problem! There's a method to the madness. One of the biggest things I utilize is the CIPS analogs with recognition of key features and then compare to previous events. I also have a pretty good memory for weather, so I remember setups with a similar evolution in certain areas of the forecast and weight that towards guidance. Blending guidance can be good for a complex situation, but sometimes intuition with the meteorology at hand can take precedence, especially for something historical or heavy climo based (Elevation dependent storms are big with this). Knowing your geography and how things typically unfold is important. Nailing forecasts exactly is extremely difficult, but the key is to stay within a bounds that can verify an Advisory or Warning when you put one out. As an NWS met, I think about being within reason and adjustments up are okay compared to adjustments down. Impact based forecasting. I want to be as close to right as possible, but not missing too much. In this case, it's hard to create a forecast when the transition time frame is uber important. That can make or break a forecast. Thanks. Very interesting and enlightening. WAY back when (we're talking the Barry Walton era), I was a Meteorology major at Millersville but alas, I switched to Physics and and moved on from there. But I've always retained weather as a hobby and have the upmost respect for those who practice the craft in the real world. Your outputs can effect and in many cases save people's lives. Thanks for your work. It is much appreciated! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here is the 12z Euro. I is now showing a triple point low which I have mot seen yet for this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here is some more from the 12z Euro. We will need to see if future model runs show the triple point any possible impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Here is the 12z Euro close up snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 12z Euro has over 4 inches at MDT with the 6 inch line to Carlisle, Newport & Chambersburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 Hey guys! Just a heads up with the European output. It is a model that struggles a lot of time with the finer transition periods and is likely missing some ZR in the mix. There will likely still be some freezing rain to contend with, despite what the model signifies. This is where mesos come in handy. Some areas may see little ice, but other areas that typically hold the cold better will, so keep that in the back of your thoughts for the storm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 @MAG5035 Any thoughts on the triple point look on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 This is only tangentially related to the storm, but the point forecast for State College for tonight's low temperature, 5 degrees, if it verifies, would be the lowest temperature here since 2 February 2019. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Not sure why it seems so lofty of a number considering several models not named the NAM and support from CTP? We shall see what the actual numbers say on Monday. Hey, you might very well be right...and I hope you are! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 I am warned. Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 125 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 PAZ006-010-011-017-024-033-034-160900- /O.UPG.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ /O.EXB.KCTP.WS.W.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/ Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-Bedford- Including the cities of Coudersport, St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, DuBois, Clearfield, Johnstown, Somerset, and Bedford 125 PM EST Sat Jan 15 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph on Monday. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 1 PM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour possible late Sunday and Sunday night. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation and Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission strongly encourage motorists to heed all travel restrictions and delay unnecessary travel as significant winter weather conditions will make travel very hazardous. Call 5 1 1 or visit www.511pa.com for the latest travel, roadway and traffic conditions. To report snow or ice, post to the NWS State College Facebook page, use Twitter @NWSStateCollege, or visit weather.gov/ctp. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 24 minutes ago, Hoar_Frost said: This is only tangentially related to the storm, but the point forecast for State College for tonight's low temperature, 5 degrees, if it verifies, would be the lowest temperature here since 2 February 2019. Good luck with this storm out there. Hopefully sleet/ice don’t cut into it too much. Lots of sleetfests when I went to PSU. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Festus said: I think the "official" measurement will be over but it will be so squished and watered down by Monday morning the it will look like 1" tops. And that's what the non-weenies will say happened and harass the mets for busting. Haha this is likely true. I should also clarify I'm talking KLNS. Obviously there could well be significant differences between, say, south of Quarryville and up north of you towards the Lebanon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 12z EPS had a slight uptick in snow for Harrisburg over the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 The 12z Euro control run gets 5 inches to Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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