Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[mahantango#1]

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[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Exactly what I was trying to convey in a PBP sense...not a forecast. 

I was just thinking in general about our rare “great” coastal storms. By the time the storm approaches our latitude, we usually already have a really good amount of snow on the ground. There is usually a lot of precip well out ahead of the low as it gains latitude up from the gulf states.

My point is that we can score decent snow with this storm by the time the low reaches southern VA or the DelMarVa, even if it then goes downhill after that for us.

 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I was just thinking in general about our rare “great” coastal storms. By the time the storm approaches our latitude, we usually already have a really good amount of snow on the ground. There is usually a lot of precip well out ahead of the low as it gains latitude up from the gulf states.

My point is that we can score decent snow with this storm by the time the low reaches southern VA or the DelMarVa, even if it then goes downhill after that for us.

 

WHTM 27 has not really wavered on amounts.

[Bubbler86]

 

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

WHTM 27 has not really wavered on amounts.

[Ruin]

my area lost most of its snow cover from the recent 40s temps. maybe a slushy 2 inchs before we had the big freeze now every thing is solid ice.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Ruin said:

my area lost most of its snow cover from the recent 40s temps. maybe a slushy 2 inchs before we had the big freeze now every thing is solid ice.

You are lucky you made it out of the MA board alive.    They are not going to want to hear about your issues in Harrisburg.  LOL.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

Maybe DT is a consultant for WHTM.

[Bubbler86]

At hour 32 the HRRR has a still strengthening wave entering eastern KENTUCKY!  LOL. 

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

WHTM 27 has not really wavered on amounts.

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

They have on the website we are to change to rain by 10pm lol and the storm starts like at 4?

[Ruin]

11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

 

lol then you hear the most accurate forecast intro its like sure you can be accurate if you change it 20 times before it starts.

[Bubbler86]

The HRRR is snowing on the LSV for a long time as it traverses under PA from KY.  Still waiting for the final totals. 

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

They dropped most of the Harrisburg area & surrounding LSV from 6 -10 to 3-6, do that is a healthy drop.

But the upper end of Dauphin county (where I live) and west of the river they didn't lower them. It doesn't jive with NWS point and click forecast WHTM is double the amounts of NWS.

[Cashtown_Coop]

With the Euro, this is all snow for most before the flip.   

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The HRRR is snowing on the LSV for a long time as it traverses under PA from KY.  Still waiting for the final totals. 

Is it showing a true Miller B.   True thump then a dry slot.   If that’s the case I could see 6-10” 

[Ruin]

Maybe the Volcano that blew its top in Tonga will change something lol

[Blizzard of 93]

Meanwhile 12 degrees currently in Marysville.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Is it showing a true Miller B.   True thump then a dry slot.   If that’s the case I could see 6-10” 

And its more than one run.  Much less coastal/easterly fetch.  Definitely the LSV special right now.  Looks like it is showing 4-6" before the dryslot. 

[Blizzard of 93]

We won’t lose any flakes tomorrow due to initial temps or warm ground!

[Voyager]

44 minutes ago, Greensnow said:

-4 right now in Clarks Green. Going to be a mess tomorrow night and Monday.

Yes it will be.

I do YouTube videos from time to time of my trucking work days (hey, people love them) and I made one yesterday that I'm uploading right now. When it finishes, I'll link it up here and you can see where I get the water I haul, and what potential problems I'm going to have if we end up with a 3-6 inch iceberg for Monday, or Tuesday if I don't run on Monday.

[canderson]

It is GD cold out.  11. 

CTP says the LSV flips to rain before midnight. You just have to hope the thump is heavy. 

Great discussion this morning from them: 

Moisture will surge northward behind robust isentropic lift and
likely produce a period of moderate snow with potential for an
embedded west-east oriented band of heavy heavy snow (1 inch/hr
rates possible) moving from south to north early Sunday night
(00-06Z Mon). This band will slow down and pivot to become SW-NE
oriented over Warren/McKean Counties and points northeast from
there, with potential for 1-2 inch/hr rates continuing over
Warren and McKean Counties from 06z into the predawn hours.

South and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor, thermal profiles are
expected to warm above freezing first in the 750-850 hPa layer
and then also at the sfc across the lower Susquehanna Valley.
Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain across the south
starting around 10pm and the wintry mix is expected to approach
I-80 by around midnight. Sfc temps will likely warm above
freezing just before midnight across the Lower Susq, bringing a
change to plain rain. Above freezing sfc temps will then push
farther north along the Susquehanna valley toward Williamsport.
In addition to the warm advection, a dry slot will bring a
ribbon of decreased RH in midlevels for much of our central and
eastern zones, leading to decreased SLRs first and then
potentially the loss of cloud ice, resulting in a wider area of
light freezing rain / drizzle that could extend through much of
the CWA with the exception of the far northwest, where the
pivoting snow band will continue. Freezing rain may result in a
glaze of ice, but will generally be low impact due to snow
already on the ground and then temps warming above freezing in
some spots.

 

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

With the Euro, this is all snow for most before the flip.   

wow very sad ouch

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It is GD cold out.  11. 

CTP says the LSV flips to rain before midnight. You just have to hope the thump is heavy. 

Great discussion this morning from them: 

Moisture will surge northward behind robust isentropic lift and
likely produce a period of moderate snow with potential for an
embedded west-east oriented band of heavy heavy snow (1 inch/hr
rates possible) moving from south to north early Sunday night
(00-06Z Mon). This band will slow down and pivot to become SW-NE
oriented over Warren/McKean Counties and points northeast from
there, with potential for 1-2 inch/hr rates continuing over
Warren and McKean Counties from 06z into the predawn hours.

South and east of the I-80/I-99 corridor, thermal profiles are
expected to warm above freezing first in the 750-850 hPa layer
and then also at the sfc across the lower Susquehanna Valley.
Snow will change to sleet and freezing rain across the south
starting around 10pm and the wintry mix is expected to approach
I-80 by around midnight. Sfc temps will likely warm above
freezing just before midnight across the Lower Susq, bringing a
change to plain rain. Above freezing sfc temps will then push
farther north along the Susquehanna valley toward Williamsport.
In addition to the warm advection, a dry slot will bring a
ribbon of decreased RH in midlevels for much of our central and
eastern zones, leading to decreased SLRs first and then
potentially the loss of cloud ice, resulting in a wider area of
light freezing rain / drizzle that could extend through much of
the CWA with the exception of the far northwest, where the
pivoting snow band will continue. Freezing rain may result in a
glaze of ice, but will generally be low impact due to snow
already on the ground and then temps warming above freezing in
some spots.

 

ABC 27 video on the site future radar claims 930/10pm for the change over god I hope they are wrong 

[Bubbler86]

The HRRR sits the low of Rou'ville for hours, dryslot, and pounds Pitt proper.   Dream scenario for them. 

[KPITSnow]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The HRRR sits the low of Rou'ville for hours, dryslot, and pounds Pitt proper.   Dream scenario for them. 

Toss it.

[Ruin]

How far east would this have to go to get back into a decent snow event 100 miles?

[canderson]

Just now, Ruin said:

ABC 27 video on the site future radar claims 930/10pm for the change over god I hope they are wrong 

CTP says 10. It’ll move S to N. It all is about the thump. 
 

Winds have backed way off for the LSV. It’ll be gusty but Mag was totally correct per usual. Gusts in the mid 30s seems like the feel. Hell we had that all afternoon yesterday. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, KPITSnow said:

Toss it.

You are having issues with success aren't you?  LOL 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

wow very sad ouch

That map is general Precip, not snow…

[KPITSnow]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

You are having issues with success aren't you?  LOL 

Trying to stay realistic. Hopefully this is one of those times where the shorter term MESO models lock in on something but its such a completely different evolution I have a hard time buying it.