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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

I’m sticking with more East solution on this deal, I’ve very very very very rarely ever witnessed a path like this one takes and especially a day after shot of polar air. Lol I’ll probably eat crow, but that’s my guess.

Only time I can recall a track that is MODELED and hasn't happened are tropical cyclones. Can't remember a winter storm with this extreme a track. 

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4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No model or forecast has won or lost anything yet.

The storm is still 2 days away…

Right, which is why I qualified it with the best case Op right now.  As of now those ensemble means way east of us are tough to remember.  If everything shifts back to that, then I my post was very wrong.  

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5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

I’m sticking with more East solution on this deal, I’ve very very very very rarely ever witnessed a path like this one takes and especially a day after shot of polar air. Lol I’ll probably eat crow, but that’s my guess.

This! Exactly!

First time for everything, but this would be unprecedented with a low that tracks from the Gulf to the DelMarVa and then goes right through true Central PA.

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Realism is good. Model hugging is bad. 

The Euro is the only model that has not trended towards the NAM's "I have a Nightmare" solution it seems. It's also the weather forecast guidance model of the Montreal Canadians. Yeah, we talk about 26 championships, but the last one when Jesus was still just a shitty cabinetmaker. It's time to admit it's not infallible.

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6 minutes ago, anotherman said:

There’s nothing wrong with stating that a trend is occurring.

There are also different interpretations going on here so it can lead to confusion.  In my eyes, a low is coming up the TN valley, getting somewhere into the lower Ohio valley, then a new low forms off the Nc coast and is captured/ pulled in and stacking with the 850 west of PA. Both interpretations are all good but it leads to different views for sure.

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Neither he nor I said that anything was "won" -  I said that the NAM has won more than twice and that it never liked this storm, which is true. I'll read more and post less. 

It’s all good…

As we have commented in the past, snow is a serious business around here and sometimes some us (myself included) get carried away with our snow emotions.

It seems like we have tracking this 1 forever, but really the models didn’t latch onto this storm until Monday.

We still have time to sort out the final details tomorrow & Sunday am.

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