Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Ruin said: this storm is the reason why many dont buy forecasts just saying I've told people that predicting winter storms is way more than looking at models and "guessing". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: I've told people that predicting winter storms is way more than looking at models and "guessing". That is what makes public snow maps so hard for people to grasp, again ala Trainings comments. Joe average Businessman (WFH or otherwise) is not going to understand how 6-10" of snow is now down to scraps. But it can go both ways. If NWS drops WSW's here and the models were dead wrong, like Jan 25, 2000, people do not understand how it went from flurries to 12-18". This event is a lot better than sunny and cold so still going to track and watch for changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: My daughter just landed in Des Moines, Iowa( Iowa State U.) in the snowstorm Go temple Owls !! Can you ask her to release a balloon in the air so we can get a sample of 925? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: I can't believe they didn't cancel the flight. She said it's a winter wonderland there. Glad she made it ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 4-6" seems like a kings bounty right now. I would take it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Two close misses on the 18Z GFS for next weekend and early the following week. More tracking coming! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 4-6" seems like a kings bounty right now. I would take it. Warning level snow amounts of 5 inches or more are still very much on the table from around I-81 north & west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: My daughter just landed in Des Moines, Iowa( Iowa State U.) in the snowstorm Go temple Owls !! So is my son Iowa St. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Two close misses on the 18Z GFS for next weekend and early the following week. More tracking coming! I’m already focusing on those events. Tracking 10 minutes of snow then mix to rain is not fun.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Someone with crayons said "Yeah...I don't really like Lancaster County..." Somehow, Wilmington DE does better than Lancaster...Coastal WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wait we taking about Iowa State again? Hell yea let’s do this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Atomixwx said: If it ends up rain up this way, I'll blame myself for moving and bringing the cold rain with me lol No way up there in P-burg, I’ll happily take that stand and go down in flames if need be lol. Some kind of period of sleet is definitely a real possibility though and maybe freezing drizzle if we slot this far back. I’m still pretty confident in mainly frozen (snow and/or sleet) in this general area here. The low would have to literally track over us or in western PA for me to change my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: No way up there in P-burg, I’ll happily take that stand and go down in flames if need be lol. Some kind of period of sleet is definitely a real possibility though and maybe freezing drizzle if we slot this far back. I’m still pretty confident in mainly frozen (snow and/or sleet) in this general area here. The low would have to literally track over us or in western PA for me to change my thinking. You think MDT sees more plain rain than zr? CTP seems to now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 49 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I’m already focusing on those events. Tracking 10 minutes of snow then mix to rain is not fun. . Lol…I forgot that the storm already happened…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: You think MDT sees more plain rain than zr? CTP seems to now. Where do you get your info? Asking for a friend…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 This is from CTP this afternoon… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: This is from CTP this afternoon… Harrisburg 3-5 …. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 **** that's the first I saw the wind chill graphic. Time to close the window in the bedroom. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 ABC-27 changed their map. Still 3 to 6 inches of snow for most of the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: ABC-27 changed their map. Still 3 to 6 inches of snow for most of the LSV Cash Is going to be jealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 12 minutes ago, canderson said: You think MDT sees more plain rain than zr? CTP seems to now. Yea, if this does go to liquid at some point in the storm it probably will be with surface temps right at or above freezing. That’s part of the problem with the low tracking inside into eastern PA. The low level flow is ESE and those gusty winds will moderate the surface temps, esp after p-types transition. If this found a way to even mostly stay under PA and go towards Philly or NJ you could have a more ENE flow which could hold the low level temps better. The NAM may be onto something with quicker warmth aloft but it maybe too overzealous with its super strong and far reaching 850 jet. That feature is going to be the key with the front end. The other part of the problem which has been modeled for days is the surface high setting this cold air mass slides east as the storm tracks up. This transitions initial CAD into a boundary situation where the track of the low will dictate the swath of heavy snowfall and transition zone. If this thing tracked NE right up just inside the coastline the high positioning east wouldn’t be an issue as there is still plenty of cold wrapped into the system. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not that it matters much, but how the heck does CTP have York county in the Watch, but not Dauphin county? It makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Cash Is going to be jealous. If I’m next to the blue does that mean 6 lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I'll take 6-10 and being snowed in with the playoffs on. I have a decanter full of Winter Jack. I'll sign off on that graphic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: If I’m next to the blue does that mean 6 lol Lol…That’s how I see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: If I’m next to the blue does that mean 6 lol Yup. That's called extrapolation. You extrapolate however far you need to go to get into the next higher gradient. It's basic Weenie 101... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Where do you get your info? Asking for a friend…. CTP has it flipping 3-4 am. Rates will be good until I’d guess an hour or two before. They seem to be saying minimal frozen rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 15, 2022 Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 15, 2022 Author Share Posted January 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Best of the HH runs for most in the east half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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