Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS has precip breaking out mid afternoon for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Love this panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Love this panel That will have me smiling for an hour prior to the debacle in KC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: That will have me smiling for an hour prior to the debacle in KC. Keep the hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 GFS is great for the Western 1/3 of PA. Going to be some gaudy snow maps figures there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That will have me smiling for an hour prior to the debacle in KC. I honestly think Steelers beat KC. It’s the way it’s scripted this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: GFS is great for the Western 1/3 of PA. Going to be some gaudy snow maps figures there. GFS also trying really hard to flip some us back over early Monday. That trend also seems to be gaining some legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: That will have me smiling for an hour prior to the debacle in KC. The pivotal maps shows you getting less than 1" (goes over 1" with late snow Monday afternoon). Several runs now where I question it what is going on with pivotal figures in close situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: I honestly think Steelers beat KC. It’s the way it’s scripted this year. Honestly...truly...objectively... No. But, I do think it will be much closer than a lot people think. To win, I think they need to force 3 TO's at a minimum. If KC plays super sloppy...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I do feel the same way, but I don’t completely discount the NAM’s robust warming higher up near the 850mb level either. But same stuff as 12z. The money 3hr frames for ZR are 60 and 63. Using my nearest station at KAOO as an example since I’m in the thick of the heavy ZR over here. HR 60: Surface -6ºC, 925mb (~3k ft) -6ºC, 850mb +2ºC HR 63: Surface -2ºC, 925mb -3ºC. 850mb back to 0ºC Even with that basic breakdown at the major layers I look at that and ask what part of that suggests that particular station sees 0.78” as freezing rain? I think something toward a NAM scenario might get a few hours of sleet into the central and *maybe* western counties. But Pitt’s advantage is the 850 low tracks favorably on the NAM for western (and serviceable to central counties) plus overall flow is on the cold conveyor belt side of the low. We don’t have an Ohio Valley low with SW flow intruding in this situation and trying to overcome that with a secondary to the coast. The warm advection comes from the tremendous easterly flow aloft with the coastal low. I can’t really think of a situation in the past that has presented the NAM type scenario of that much mix/ZR into western PA so that would be a new one to me if it happened. Thanks for your thoughts. He was weenying out a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The pivotal maps shows you getting less than 1". Several runs now where I question it what is going on with pivotal figures in close situations. I mean...it's possible, especially if the WAA is weak sauce. If snow is going to confined to merely a couple/few hours before it flips, it better rip or it will end as much adieu about nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I mean...it's possible, especially if the WAA is weak sauce. If snow is going to confined to merely a couple/few hours before it flips, it better rip or it will end as much adieu about nothing. Well that is what happens, quick flip, but it was snowing quite hard over you for that one panel. I think some of the more smoothed over snow maps are a bit better than pivotal right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Well that is what happens, quick flip, but it was snowing quite hard over you for that one panel. I think some of the more smoothed over snow maps are a bit better than pivotal right now. 1” to 5” for Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Someone with crayons said "Yeah...I don't really like Lancaster County..." Somehow, Wilmington DE does better than Lancaster... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: 1” to 5” for Adams Yea, Franklin similar. And these numbers are up there with the best for HH so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Ice ice baby!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Yea, Franklin similar. And these numbers are up there with the best for HH so far. Is that a joke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: Hr 60 2M temps. Wow. Non event for many. Wow. 34 even in Hazleton... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Is that a joke? No, its not. Every other run in HH has been less for me. GFS has been the best with Icon right there as well. Rgem and Nam were basically ground whiteners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 show of hands who dont buy the models and feel its going to be a now casting event??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 25 minutes ago, kerplunk said: You won’t be alone. I’ll also blame you. That's nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 No, its not. Every other run in HH has been less for me. GFS has been the best with Icon right there as well. Rgem and Nam were basically ground whiteners. Very much going the wrong way though. Trends are not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Very much going the wrong way though. Trends are not good. Not doubt. But will still look for a reversal because it's what I do. Track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Not doubt. But will still look for a reversal because it's what I do. Track. Yeah, I’m the same way. Hard to believe this went from a storm giving South Carolina major snow and then out to sea to what it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I do love model watching and this storm has been a unique one to follow, but if I end up with less than an inch of snow I'm going to be pretty frustrated. Mid Jan and I'll have 3" total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Yeah, I’m the same way. Hard to believe this went from a storm giving South Carolina major snow and then out to sea to what it is now. Yep, humbling for forecasting. I kept it to myself for the most part so no 'Where is my one foot of snow" from friends (Sort of similar to Trainings story) but still very disappointing at this point. I feel for the most part we did a good job in tracking so far. Surprised more NWS and paid mets did not catch on to the 850 low/surface wave that hangs on west of the apps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 this storm is the reason why many dont buy forecasts just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 WHTM looking really ****in stupid tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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