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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We can say its the Nam and ignore or use it as a tool.  No matter what, the Nam was on to the Western extent of the 850's blitz from the very beginning.   it could still be wrong but if not, it gets a gold star for its effort. 

Unfortunately the NAM often sniffs out these thermal issues before some of the globals catch on.  Now, it could be off on the track and evolution but I fear it may be leading the way here.  Hope to be wrong.

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I actually thought the 18Z NAM looked a bit better than its 12Z run (which was also a disaster).  The surface low is further south and east early on.  Then as the surface low tracks into PA it tries to transition to a coastal just south of LI.  I know the mid levels are nuked at that point but if that transition can happen further south or east that will buy us valuable thump time.

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Going to take the chance to here to comment, this is JUST a model PBP.  Not a forecast, not a cheerleading effort, just facts on what the model says.  If other suites show nothing like this, then dandy. 

Correct, perspective needs maintained.  But it does feel like things are slowly slipping away.  Even so, keep the faith, I will *Yoda voice*

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2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Correct, perspective needs maintained.  But it does feel like things are slowly slipping away.  Even so, keep the faith, I will *Yoda voice*

Yea.  And I was not aiming that at you vs. using your post as a way to avoid issues as both you and I were doing PBP and not forecasting.  I want snow and lots of it so let's hope the Nam evolution is wrong. 

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2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I actually thought the 18Z NAM looked a bit better than its 12Z run (which was also a disaster).  The surface low is further south and east early on.  Then as the surface low tracks into PA it tries to transition to a coastal just south of LI.  I know the mid levels are nuked at that point but if that transition can happen further south or east that will buy us valuable thump time.

A voice of reason?  Good analysis.  I said it was the worst nam run due to ground truth temps in the 40's (12Z got their as well but had more frz) but it could have trended a bit better. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Unfortunately the NAM often sniffs out these thermal issues before some of the globals catch on.  Now, it could be off on the track and evolution but I fear it may be leading the way here.  Hope to be wrong.

Maybe in the central parts of the state, but I simply can’t but it out this way in WPA with this track and I know Mets like MAG feel the same way. 
 

im obviously a know nothing but I’ve never seen that much ice in the NE side of a system like this.

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ok been  following winter storms for a good while this is the most crazy one I have been watching. starts out out to sea in the south east. the talk the cold air suppresses it no chance to come north at all no need to worry. to the very next day comes thousand miles or so west and comes more north to the point it may hit us. to now coming so far went you get mid 30s and 40s into or close to our area????? I mean I feel like this is just gonna be a now casting event. i joked early on its gonna be a apps runner and wow for a few runs it was. Is it that the upper air is just to complex now? I could see this thing missing us honestly with the way things are going.

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4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

Maybe in the central parts of the state, but I simply can’t but it out this way in WPA with this track and I know Mets like MAG feel the same way. 
 

im obviously a know nothing but I’ve never seen that much ice in the NE side of a system like this.

Just remember there are two lows.  The inland low (and its 850 partner) get right up to you.  Will not say anymore as its your area. 

 

image.png.7683fc4779ecb7e6f942e775a11b0659.png

 

 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

The 18z Nam trended like 150 miles with the h5 low lol . I also thought it bumped east with the slp. 0z will be different again. You can bet your original still in the box 1980 Millennium falcon on it :whistle:

“You’ve never heard of the Millennium Falcon? It’s the ship that made the Kessel run in less than 12 parsecs.”

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17 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A voice of reason?  Good analysis.  I said it was the worst nam run due to ground truth temps in the 40's (12Z got their as well but had more frz) but it could have trended a bit better. 

 

 

The surface is sort of the last thing I'm worrying about.  Rain at 30 or rain at 34...doesn't accrete well either way.  Mag is right (of course) about the duration.  It doesn't have a lot of time to wreck the surface temps.  Usually that happens on SW winds when the low is ripping up through Lake Erie.  I think the NAM is probably too high and fast on surface temps.

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Just now, GrandmasterB said:

The surface is sort of the last thing I'm worrying about.  Rain at 30 or rain at 34...doesn't accrete well either way.  Mag is right (of course) about the duration.  It doesn't have a lot of time to wreck the surface temps.  Usually that happens on SW winds when the low is ripping up through Lake Erie.  I think the NAM is probably too high and fast on surface temps.

I agree the Nam is probably overdone but if it has the right idea as to evolution, mainly bringing the 850 low up into S/W PA, we are not going to have a fun time with this.   Bob Chill just said he thinks the Nam has the right idea so not everyone is just tossing it aside.    I think we are all still getting some snow either way.  

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58 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good thing it’s probably wrong.

The Euro is locked in.

Euro has been pretty steady and it's the best we got right now. Even so, with each successive run it's peeling away the SE edge of the snowfall. I went from 8" 48 hours ago to less than 4" today. 

Not arguing so much as to say that when you're living on the edge you notice those changes. If you live west of I-81 it's steady as she goes perhaps. 

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Euro has been pretty steady and it's the best we got right now. Even so, with each successive run it's peeling away the SE edge of the snowfall. I went from 8" 48 hours ago to less than 4" today. 

Not arguing so much as to say that when you're living on the edge you notice those changes. If you live west of I-81 it's steady as she goes perhaps. 

I am going to need the Mesos to show something more than 1-2" before I feel steady. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I am going to need the Mesos to show something more than 1-2" before I feel steady. 

Agree 100%. I'm not expecting what the Euro's suggesting. Though, with each incremental pullback, by 12z Sunday it might be down to 1-2". 

My specific point was that for most of the week almost our entire area was in purples or pinks on those lovely snow maps. The pinks have shrunk while the purples keep retreating west with each new run. If you lived 150 miles inside of the purples it looks like the Euro is holding steady...but it really has not for those of us livin' on the edge. 

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1 hour ago, GrandmasterB said:

I actually thought the 18Z NAM looked a bit better than its 12Z run (which was also a disaster).  The surface low is further south and east early on.  Then as the surface low tracks into PA it tries to transition to a coastal just south of LI.  I know the mid levels are nuked at that point but if that transition can happen further south or east that will buy us valuable thump time.

 

57 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

A voice of reason?  Good analysis.  I said it was the worst nam run due to ground truth temps in the 40's (12Z got their as well but had more frz) but it could have trended a bit better. 

 

 

PSUHoffman also thought the NAM was an improvement from 12z. 

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1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Maybe in the central parts of the state, but I simply can’t but it out this way in WPA with this track and I know Mets like MAG feel the same way. 
 

im obviously a know nothing but I’ve never seen that much ice in the NE side of a system like this.

I do feel the same way, but I don’t completely discount the NAM’s robust warming higher up near  the 850mb level either. But same stuff as 12z. The money 3hr frames for ZR are 60 and 63. Using my nearest station at KAOO as an example since I’m in the thick of the heavy ZR over here.

HR 60: Surface -6ºC, 925mb (~3k ft) -6ºC, 850mb +2ºC

HR 63: Surface -2ºC, 925mb -3ºC. 850mb back to 0ºC

Even with that basic breakdown at the major layers I look at that and ask what part of that suggests that particular station sees 0.78” as freezing rain? I think something toward a NAM scenario might get a few hours of sleet into the central and *maybe* western counties. But Pitt’s advantage is the 850 low tracks favorably on the NAM for western (and serviceable to central counties) plus overall flow is on the cold conveyor belt side of the low. We don’t have an Ohio Valley low with SW flow intruding in this situation and trying to overcome that with a secondary to the coast. The warm advection comes from the tremendous easterly flow aloft with the coastal low. I can’t really think of a situation in the past that has presented the NAM type scenario of that much mix/ZR into western PA so that would be a new one to me if it happened. 

 

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