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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, canderson said:

So MDT is extremely likely looking at 1-2" snow, then a sleetfest and a little glaze of zr just to kick us when we're down? 

I already despise this storm. BUUUUUT sleet >>>> zr with strong winds. 

Yes, we want to root for sleet and not freezing rain.  It has staying power and doesn't cause as many power problems.

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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

If y'all have any questions to the map, tag me and I'll try to answer them. I'll have a longer write up later today after work on my thoughts. I'll likely post in the MA thread, but I'll copy the post here for all to read. Thanks for the feedback guys :) 

Since it’s cut off, any thoughts up my way in PIT?

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1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

Since it’s cut off, any thoughts up my way in PIT?

I haven't examined the Pittsburgh area too much, but you guys will be well away from any warm boundary layer advection outside a slight climb as the SLP gets into PA. I think WSW criteria snowfall is certainly at play for you guys. I really like the Laurels for this one. This is a great storm for places like JST/Altoona area. I think you guys will get some love out that way. 

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CTP's 11 am discussion is very detailed and a good read. 

Quote

A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast early
Sunday morning will begin to lift northeast and take on a
negative tilt across the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon
and then race northeast to be over NJ by 12Z Monday. This will
be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure
downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through
diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a
low pressure system moving north to a nearly stacked position by
the end of D3. The guidance has come into much better
agreement with the placement of this low lifting roughly along
the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level
confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of
high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a
typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup.

As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward
behind robust isentropic lift and likely produce a period of
moderate to heavy snow (WAA thump) early Sunday night (00-06Z
Mon). Mixed thermal profiles and possible dry slot are in play
into early Monday morning to the southeast of I-99/80 which
could transition snow to ice over the southeast part of the CWA.
While there are still some details to resolve, there is a
strong enough model signal to issue a well-collaborated winter
storm watch for most of the CWA from 18Z Sunday to 18Z Monday.
The multi-model/blended QPF and SLRs indicate potential for 6"
or more of snow with a minor ice glaze also possible across the
southeast 1/3 of the area.

Deformation snow appears to linger over the northern part of CPA
through Monday morning. The expected snowfall btwn 12-18Z
Monday was not included in the storm total with this cycle
given that it is beyond the set time window. Expect cold/gusty
NW flow to take over Monday night with deformation snow
transition to lake effect/upslope snow showers into Tuesday
morning.

Post-storm will likely feature a period of gusty northwest
winds and lake effect snow showers as cool temperatures remain
in place.

 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Bubbler, that run you just posted would come super close to verifying Millville's map.

Yea, its a more simple, vanilla way for this to roll out.  The inland low is absorbed sooner which shuts off the warm air over there...and the UL's are much more simple in how they play out with much less ice. 

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Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC.  That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution.  Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west.  CMC is a noticeable shift towards that.  Let's see if we can get it on the Euro.  I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event!  Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now.

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8 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Agree with you Bubbler on the CMC.  That's one way we can get back to a snowier solution.  Get the coastal low going sooner/more east and cut off the surge to our west.  CMC is a noticeable shift towards that.  Let's see if we can get it on the Euro.  I can't believe tomorrow is another full day tracking for this event!  Feels like we've been tracking it for a month now.

Some of us have to get out of the house tomorrow and will be living vicariously via mobile. LOL.  It's been a long haul...some 6-10 models 4x a day.  

 

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