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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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10 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

Been watching the GFS and EURO and still feeling good about 10+ with blowing and drifting during and after the storm for UNV.

Think Altoona, Clearfield, and State College are all looking good. 

Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does.  Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy.  ;)

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10 minutes ago, Porsche said:

I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot.  Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too :)

I'd sign for that as well.  Not a far fetched solution either.  Most guidance has us safely in 3-6" ish.  Throw some sleet on (wishcasting again) and dryslot us w/ a little mood flakes on tail end. Then cold comes to make it look Burle N Ives for a few weeks. 

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does.  Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy.  ;)

You’ve definitly hit on the right idea. If I were still a drinker, it would be a Grolsch for me. But some hot cocoa will do just fine. ;)

 

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Man, I'm having such a hard time with this storm, really one of the trickier evolutions I've ever seen.  If you told any of us that there would be a coastal getting its act together around Savannah on a day where we start with temps damn near the single digits we'd all take that to the bank.  Unfortunately, nothing about this is that clean.  Too much latitude is gained by the dueling Lows and the merge pulls the coastal too far west, allowing for the mid-level thermals to be breached in many areas.  Heck, we even have to worry about surface temps overnight, and again, this on what started as perhaps our coldest day of the year.  But such is life when those easterlies get screaming off the ocean, nothing we all haven't seen many times before. 

In short, this looks like a classic PA slop storm for those of us in the SC/SE part of the state.  We should do alright with the front end WAA thump but then messy after that.  The I99 corridor should do very well with this one, congrats to all out that way.  One last IMBY tidbit, Lancaster County has been consistently showing up as one of the places with the tightest gradient in snowfall amounts, could easily see places south of Quarryville with only a couple inches and Elizabethtown with 6+".  Going to be one heck of an interesting storm to watch unfold and while it's not too late to see some easterly jogs in the trajectory, I think the writing is on the wall for most of us down here in the Maryland border counties.  No complaints here though, will gladly take my snow/sleet/ice/rain cake and run.  Now let's bring this sucker home!

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13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My bar right now is 4”.   Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled.    I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible.    As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win 

I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20.  

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20.  

A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. 

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. 

Yes.   You can watch on the cc mode the mix line racing north and west and wonder when it’s going to stop 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

A couple of red taggers were mentioning last evening that this is the type of storm where the mix will occur even faster, and much farther N&W than the models currently indicate. It will be something to watch on Sunday PM/early Monday to see what happens out towards true Central PA. 

1/19/19? 2/15/21?

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18 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

My bar right now is 4”.   Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled.    I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible.    As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win 

This is a fair expectation and yes, mixing almost always arrives earlier than modeled, and even before the radars shows it.  How many times have we all seen the radar indicating the mix line at least 30 miles to our south and think we have a good bit of snow left, before hearing the pinging a mere three minutes later?  Too many times to count.

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Yes.   You can watch on the cc mode the mix line racing north and west and wonder when it’s going to stop 

From a ton of experience I can’t tell you how many times in Pittsburgh we were forecasted to stay all snow 24hrs out only to have the mix line go well up past I-80

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