Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Well the Central PA topic disappeared. WTH? Starting it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Here is a the Euro map that I was looking for showing the whys of the Western mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 that's pretty strange Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Does the new thread reset mean the models have a reset on the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Does the new thread reset mean the models have a reset on the storm. Nam will let us know shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, sauss06 said: that's pretty strange I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone. Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me. Maybe it could be restored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone. Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me. Maybe it could be restored? I want a full blown investigation by Modes. All those maps I posted GONE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone. Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me. Maybe it could be restored? not sure. Don't recall that ever happening. I was back reading from overnight and poof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I want a full blown investigation by Modes. All those maps I posted GONE LOL. They would have been gone anyway at some point. You can only post about 40MB of images then you have to clean out your old images. I am already cleaning out stuff from Dec! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: LOL. They would have been gone anyway at some point. You can only post about 40MB of images then you have to clean out your old images. I am already cleaning out stuff from Dec! I found that out last storm. I better start deleting today to get ready for the big finale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone. Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me. Maybe it could be restored? wasnt just you. Blip on screen happened to me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 I wrote Randy and asked if it could be restored. Told him it seemed to go away when I replied to a message. I think only a mod and myself could have deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Russians are probably behind this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I found that out last storm. I better start deleting today to get ready for the big finale fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op. Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE). Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I wrote Randy and asked if it could be restored. Told him it seemed to go away when I replied to a message. I think only a mod and myself could have deleted it. Do you have any cuts or bruises on your hands or face? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, kerplunk said: Russians are probably behind this. N Korea maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op. Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE). Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is). The wiggle East would be great. Adams County seems to be the divider for snow vs more mix. I could see Littlestown getting 3” while the big flat in nw having 10” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 BGM is definitely buying the warm surge leading to a mix for a significant part of this event. Every model has a big initial thump that would trigger a WSW for most of NEPA but they have not issued a watch for any of their eastern counties into NYS. At this time, the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area looks to see quite a bit of sleet mixing in Monday morning if this current track forecast comes to fruition and snowfall amounts would likely remain below warning thresholds (6" in 12 hours for PA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: The wiggle East would be great. Adams County seems to be the divider for snow bs more mix. I could see Littlestown getting 3” while the big flat in nw having 10” I'm wishing for that damn westward jog at most critical point of storm to go the hell away. In truth, I've watched a boatload of storms in my days, but this one takes the case in bouncing around. We should name it the T I double G R storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: N Korea maybe? Or the Chinese. May be time to rename the forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Greensnow said: BGM is definitely buying the warm surge leading to a mix for a significant part of this event. Every model has a big initial thump that would trigger a WSW for most of NEPA but they have not issued a watch for any of their eastern counties into NYS. At this time, the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area looks to see quite a bit of sleet mixing in Monday morning if this current track forecast comes to fruition and snowfall amounts would likely remain below warning thresholds (6" in 12 hours for PA). Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint. 700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration. Huh. This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region. Blues a plenty before and right after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Or the Chinese. May be time to rename the forum. thats funny. I typed N Korea and China, then deleted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Been watching the GFS and EURO and still feeling good about 10+ with blowing and drifting during and after the storm for UNV. Think Altoona, Clearfield, and State College are all looking good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint. 700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration. Huh. This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region. Blues a plenty before and right after. I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot. Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint. 700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration. Huh. This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region. Blues a plenty before and right after. My bar right now is 4”. Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled. I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible. As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Been watching the GFS and EURO and still feeling good about 10+ with blowing and drifting during and after the storm for UNV. Think Altoona, Clearfield, and State College are all looking good. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Porsche said: I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot. Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too Just posted about the same thing. This is my hope as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, pasnownut said: fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op. Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE). Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is). It matters a lot to us - I know you've been watching the guidance slowly bleed in a bad way for you and me seemingly each day this week. Any adjustment E/SE for us right now is huge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Porsche said: I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot. Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too That is exactly my barometer - each step in the process including the snow amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op. Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE). Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is). The 6z GEFS would be nice for many in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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