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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone.  Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me.    Maybe it could be restored? 

I want a full blown investigation by Modes.  All those maps I posted GONE:weep:

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone.  Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me.    Maybe it could be restored? 

not sure. Don't recall that ever happening. I was back reading from overnight and poof

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21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I was typing up that Euro map post and hit Submit reply and an error came up...and it was gone.  Since I started the thread I think I could delete but did not do anything intentionally if it was me.    Maybe it could be restored? 

wasnt just you.  Blip on screen happened to me as well.

 

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

I found that out last storm.    I better start deleting today to get ready for the big finale 

fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op.  Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE).  Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is).

 

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op.  Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE).  Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is).

 

The wiggle East would be great.   Adams County seems to be the divider for snow vs more mix.   I could see Littlestown getting 3” while the big flat in nw having 10” 

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BGM is definitely buying the warm surge leading to a mix for a significant part of this event. Every model has a big initial thump that would trigger a WSW for most of NEPA but they have not issued a watch for any of their eastern counties into NYS.

 At this time, the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area looks to see quite a bit of
sleet mixing in Monday morning if this current track forecast comes
to fruition and snowfall amounts would likely remain below
warning thresholds (6" in 12 hours for PA).
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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

The wiggle East would be great.   Adams County seems to be the divider for snow bs more mix.   I could see Littlestown getting 3” while the big flat in nw having 10” 

I'm wishing for that damn westward jog at most critical point of storm to go the hell away.  In truth, I've watched a boatload of storms in my days, but this one takes the case in bouncing around. 

We should name it the T I double G R storm.  

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Just now, Greensnow said:

BGM is definitely buying the warm surge leading to a mix for a significant part of this event. Every model has a big initial thump that would trigger a WSW for most of NEPA but they have not issued a watch for any of their eastern counties into NYS.

 At this time, the Scranton/Wilkes Barre area looks to see quite a bit of
sleet mixing in Monday morning if this current track forecast comes
to fruition and snowfall amounts would likely remain below
warning thresholds (6" in 12 hours for PA).

Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint.  700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration.  Huh.  This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region.  Blues a plenty before and right after.  

gfs_T850_eus_13.png

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint.  700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration.  Huh.  This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region.  Blues a plenty before and right after.  

gfs_T850_eus_13.png

I agree, my hope is for 4" before a changeover and hopefully get some ice to preserve the snowpack and then dryslot.  Or the storm shifts about 50 miles east too :)

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint.  700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration.  Huh.  This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region.  Blues a plenty before and right after.  

gfs_T850_eus_13.png

My bar right now is 4”.   Always seems that mixing events turn over quicker than modeled.    I do think a lengthy period of sleet is possible.    As long as I stay all frozen I’ll take the win 

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14 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op.  Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE).  Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is).

 

It matters a lot to us - I know you've been watching the guidance slowly bleed in a bad way for you and me seemingly each day this week. Any adjustment E/SE for us right now is huge...

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16 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

fwiw, 6z GEFS has a beauty of a 500 pass thats just slightly SE of Op.  Sharing because it offers a little wiggle room (and would offer merit to further ticks SE).  Thats a verbatim statement of what the model shows...not a wishcast (although in secret it really is).

 

The 6z GEFS would be nice for many in here.

 

CDA494BF-EFDA-4D36-A30F-A429E5428F14.png

275B2851-600B-4E97-A734-913D7E90F8EF.png

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