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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in.

If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control!

If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up!

I hope both PA teams and DFT win.  Keep things spicy.  I am a steel sympathizer anyway but this week, seeing Brady go down would be nice as well.  Have no idea how the Cowboys game goes.  They could win 40-10 or lose 40-10

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2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

wouldnt this be considered blizzard conditions ? heavy snow rates and those winds? or do we need temps in the teens?

Yes, yes, & No.  They took away sub 20 temps quite a few years ago.  I'm pretty sure you need sustained winds >20mph with snowfall rates >1"/hr combo for 3 continuous hours for NWS blizzard warning.

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story.  

I’m just not sure winds that high mix to the surface. I could def see some 20-35mph gusts occurring in the Sus Valley pretty easily. I dunno about 50+ though. 

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15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I have a difficult time believing the LSV would be raining as the low jumps to the east at this hour.

This is in the range where the high res Euro can cover the event hourly. The 6hr precip can be misleading with a quicker moving system. If you use the 1hr QPF by precip type/MSLP you’ll have a much better idea of transition times and precip ending. It looks like most stuff lifts out by about 10am (15z). That track through eastern Penn is rough for the LSV, hopefully it can sneak at least to moving over SE PA/Philly. But even as it looks now the LSV has a 6-8 hour period of snow followed by a transition to rain and then slot out. 

Here’s the 84 hr with the 1hr Ptype/MSLP

image.thumb.png.4ff8e11831ac145b06721134f30e4ec2.png

 

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6z NAM pretty similar to the 0z NAM still, but here's a look at what the 3z SREF had. Very similar to the Euro ensemble

image.thumb.png.1227383947b137c041a718b2e3701a6d.png

Additionally, PBZ and CTP already have just thrown up winter storm watches for large chunks of both CWA's... likely a hat tip to continued high confidence in most guidance of significant snow in at least the central and western counties. CTP's watch area looks like pretty much everything from the Susquehanna mainstem west. Below is the watch for central/south central counties, north central's is tied in with the Wind Chill advisory and no mention of mixing. No early morning update yet in the CTP AFD regarding the storm. 

Quote
National Weather Service State College PA
405 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

PAZ019-025>028-034>036-045-046-049-050-056-063-064-150000-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.220116T1800Z-220117T1800Z/
Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-
Franklin-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Perry-
Cumberland-Adams-
Including the cities of State College, Altoona, Huntingdon,
Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Bedford, McConnellsburg,
Chambersburg, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove,
Newport, Carlisle, and Gettysburg
405 AM EST Fri Jan 14 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 6
  inches or more possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow could mix with or change to ice Sunday
  night into early Monday morning southeast of I-99 and I-80. A
  light glaze of ice is possible.

 

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1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

6z NAM pretty similar to the 0z NAM still, but here's a look at what the 3z SREF had. Very similar to the Euro ensemble

image.thumb.png.1227383947b137c041a718b2e3701a6d.png

Additionally, PBZ and CTP already have just thrown up winter storm watches for large chunks of both CWA's... likely a hat tip to continued high confidence in most guidance of significant snow in at least the central and western counties. CTP's watch area looks like pretty much everything from the Susquehanna mainstem west. Below is the watch for central/south central counties, north central's is tied in with the Wind Chill advisory and no mention of mixing. No early morning update yet in the CTP AFD regarding the storm. 

 

Lol, so when @sauss06 & I cross the bridge to Harrisburg just a few minutes away, we don’t need to “Watch” for snow.

I’m sure the Watch will be extended at some point, but it is just LOL how whoever issued this county list has no clue on how the Harrisburg metro area works.

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6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, so when @sauss06 & I cross the bridge to Harrisburg just a few minutes away, we don’t need to “Watch” for snow.

I’m sure the Watch will be extended at some point, but it is just LOL how whoever issued this county list has no clue on how the Harrisburg metro area works.

what you said reminds me of this commercial 

 

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CTP has a strongly worded forecast discussion this morning:

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
*Significant winter storm potential with heavy snow and minor
 ice accumulation possible Sunday afternoon through Monday
 afternoon

Coldest minT will be Saturday night with lows in the negative to
positive single digits from north to south. Light winds under
sfc high should cap wind chills at -5 to -10F over the northern
mtns or above advisory criteria.

A closed mid-level low pivoting across the Gulf Coast early
Sunday morning will begin to lift northeast and take on a
negative tilt across the southern Appalachians Sunday afternoon
and then race northeast to be over NJ by 12Z Monday. This will
be accompanied by an increasingly coupled jet structure
downstream of the pivoting trough, with intense ascent through
diffluence aiding in the development and then strengthening of a
low pressure system moving north to a nearly stacked position by
the end of D3. The guidance has come into much better
agreement with the placement of this low lifting roughly along
the I-95 corridor. As this low initially develops, mid-level
confluence over the Mid-Atlantic will help reinforce a wedge of
high pressure down the east side of the Appalachians in a
typical Cold Air Damming (CAD) setup.

As the low strengthens, moisture will surge northwestward
behind robust isentropic lift and likely produce a period of
moderate to heavy snow (WAA thump) early Sunday night (00-06Z
Mon). Mixed thermal profiles and possible dry slot are in play
into early Monday morning to the southeast of I-99/80 which
could transition snow to ice over the southeast part of the CWA.
While there are still some details to resolve, there is a
strong enough model signal to issue a well-collaborated winter
storm watch for most of the CWA from 18Z Sunday to 18Z Monday.
The multi-model/blended QPF and SLRs indicate potential for 6"
or more of snow with a minor ice glaze also possible across the
southeast 1/3 of the area.

Deformation snow appears to linger over the northern part of CPA
through Monday morning. The expected snowfall btwn 12-18Z
Monday was not included in the storm total with this cycle
given that it is beyond the set time window. Expect cold/gusty
NW flow to take over Monday night with deformation snow
transition to lake effect/upslope snow showers into Tuesday
morning.
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