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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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NAM really doesn’t differ much from everything else track wise, it might actually be a bit SE of the 18z Euro but there is a big difference thermally aloft. The difference is it seems to want to transport >0ºC 850 and 925mb air much deeper and quicker into PA than the others. NAM might be a bit deeper into PA with it but they all have had this insane 60-80kt+ easterly 850mb jet strafing eastern PA so maybe it thinks that warm layer makes more inroads. Gotta remember we’re in hot take range with the NAM yet but this tremendous easterly jet probably should be kept in mind. I’ll be more interested in the NAM probably say 0z tomorrow.

Speakling of the wind, I have seen the likes of the GFS have stupid high surface winds and I do notice the NAM has similar surface winds in eastern PA. I could def see 50-60 mph surface winds along the coast but that type of stuff doesn’t normally translate to the surface all the way to Harrisburg no matter how windy it is at Canderson’s house lol. I don’t really see that as a good thing if it happens either because besides the obvious wind related issues, the due easterly fetch right from the Atlantic would probably modify the surface and boundary layer. Just some things to keep in consideration. Otherwise, the other ops and ensembles have been pretty solid today and the previously mixy GFS has gotten a good bit more blue with the p-types today so far while the Euro has continued to hammer a large portion of C-PA. I’ll be riding with that consensus unless/until something changes. This event likely will eventually have mixing issues in some of the LSV for a time as I think this will take the inside track but probably closer to the coastal plain and if we’re lucky closer to the Delmarva. But this should hit hard on the front end and the NAM’s probably too far out to resolve that well yet. 

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3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Icon at 78 looks slightly better.  For whatever that’s worth.  

Yep, small differences, but slightly better at 500 as it ticked east at 84.  

surface looks a tad better than 18z as well.  Still have some work to do though.  I'd venture Central/Westers will approve of this run

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6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

NAM really doesn’t differ much from everything else track wise, it might actually be a bit SE of the 18z Euro but there is a big difference thermally aloft. The difference is it seems to want to transport >0ºC 850 and 925mb air much deeper and quicker into PA than the others. NAM might be a bit deeper into PA with it but they all have had this insane 60-80kt+ easterly 850mb jet strafing eastern PA so maybe it thinks that warm layer makes more inroads. Gotta remember we’re in hot take range with the NAM yet but this tremendous easterly jet probably should be kept in mind. I’ll be more interested in the NAM probably say 0z tomorrow.

Speakling of the wind, I have seen the likes of the GFS have stupid high surface winds and I do notice the NAM has similar surface winds in eastern PA. I could def see 50-60 mph surface winds along the coast but that type of stuff doesn’t normally translate to the surface all the way to Harrisburg no matter how windy it is at Canderson’s house lol. I don’t really see that as a good thing if it happens either because besides the obvious wind related issues, the due easterly fetch right from the Atlantic would probably modify the surface and boundary layer. Just some things to keep in consideration. Otherwise, the other ops and ensembles have been pretty solid today and the previously mixy GFS has gotten a good bit more blue with the p-types today so far while the Euro has continued to hammer a large portion of C-PA. I’ll be riding with that consensus unless/until something changes. This event likely will eventually have mixing issues in some of the LSV for a time as I think this will take the inside track but probably closer to the coastal plain and if we’re lucky closer to the Delmarva. But this should hit hard on the front end and the NAM’s probably too far out to resolve that well yet. 

Thank you...thank you....thank you....for keepin hope alive.  

RGEM just showed a nice front end thumping for many here.  

so why do we see this westward bump just below us?  I'm thinking the 500lp is playing into it as its trying to stack, but it has been a painfully consistent feature of late.  Just trying to understand  whats causing it.  

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I’ve been watching the consistent heavy snows on guidance over here and thinking how you couldn’t get any better of a Sunday Night than getting buried while watching the Steelers drop KC on SNF haha. But I’ll be sweating the game and getting the first 6 inches on the ground I’m sure lol.

And on that note, it’s too bad this game wasn’t in Pittsburgh. It would be right in the thick of the storm. 

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4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve been watching the consistent heavy snows on guidance over here and thinking how you couldn’t get any better of a Sunday Night than getting buried while watching the Steelers drop KC on SNF haha. But I’ll be sweating the game and getting the first 6 inches on the ground I’m sure lol.

And on that note, it’s too bad this game wasn’t in Pittsburgh. It would be right in the thick of the storm. 

Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story.  

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2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story.  

Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in.

If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control!

If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up!

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1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in.

If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control!

If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up!

Just hope we make a game of it.  We seem to be coming together at the right time.  Defense really needs to show up.

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