Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Rgem is world's better than the nam. The area of warm air to our west gets collapsed in as the coastal takes over. Low still comes over us but a more snowy outcome upfront. Though the heaviest is still west of me and the Lsv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Icon at 78 looks slightly better. For whatever that’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, GrandmasterB said: Icon at 78 looks slightly better. For whatever that’s worth. It's worth discussing and looking at trends, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 NAM really doesn’t differ much from everything else track wise, it might actually be a bit SE of the 18z Euro but there is a big difference thermally aloft. The difference is it seems to want to transport >0ºC 850 and 925mb air much deeper and quicker into PA than the others. NAM might be a bit deeper into PA with it but they all have had this insane 60-80kt+ easterly 850mb jet strafing eastern PA so maybe it thinks that warm layer makes more inroads. Gotta remember we’re in hot take range with the NAM yet but this tremendous easterly jet probably should be kept in mind. I’ll be more interested in the NAM probably say 0z tomorrow. Speakling of the wind, I have seen the likes of the GFS have stupid high surface winds and I do notice the NAM has similar surface winds in eastern PA. I could def see 50-60 mph surface winds along the coast but that type of stuff doesn’t normally translate to the surface all the way to Harrisburg no matter how windy it is at Canderson’s house lol. I don’t really see that as a good thing if it happens either because besides the obvious wind related issues, the due easterly fetch right from the Atlantic would probably modify the surface and boundary layer. Just some things to keep in consideration. Otherwise, the other ops and ensembles have been pretty solid today and the previously mixy GFS has gotten a good bit more blue with the p-types today so far while the Euro has continued to hammer a large portion of C-PA. I’ll be riding with that consensus unless/until something changes. This event likely will eventually have mixing issues in some of the LSV for a time as I think this will take the inside track but probably closer to the coastal plain and if we’re lucky closer to the Delmarva. But this should hit hard on the front end and the NAM’s probably too far out to resolve that well yet. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Icon at 78 looks slightly better. For whatever that’s worth. Yep, small differences, but slightly better at 500 as it ticked east at 84. surface looks a tad better than 18z as well. Still have some work to do though. I'd venture Central/Westers will approve of this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 24 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam could be right but I think snow to brief mix to dryslot to backend snow showers. I'm not buying a freezing rain event This 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: NAM really doesn’t differ much from everything else track wise, it might actually be a bit SE of the 18z Euro but there is a big difference thermally aloft. The difference is it seems to want to transport >0ºC 850 and 925mb air much deeper and quicker into PA than the others. NAM might be a bit deeper into PA with it but they all have had this insane 60-80kt+ easterly 850mb jet strafing eastern PA so maybe it thinks that warm layer makes more inroads. Gotta remember we’re in hot take range with the NAM yet but this tremendous easterly jet probably should be kept in mind. I’ll be more interested in the NAM probably say 0z tomorrow. Speakling of the wind, I have seen the likes of the GFS have stupid high surface winds and I do notice the NAM has similar surface winds in eastern PA. I could def see 50-60 mph surface winds along the coast but that type of stuff doesn’t normally translate to the surface all the way to Harrisburg no matter how windy it is at Canderson’s house lol. I don’t really see that as a good thing if it happens either because besides the obvious wind related issues, the due easterly fetch right from the Atlantic would probably modify the surface and boundary layer. Just some things to keep in consideration. Otherwise, the other ops and ensembles have been pretty solid today and the previously mixy GFS has gotten a good bit more blue with the p-types today so far while the Euro has continued to hammer a large portion of C-PA. I’ll be riding with that consensus unless/until something changes. This event likely will eventually have mixing issues in some of the LSV for a time as I think this will take the inside track but probably closer to the coastal plain and if we’re lucky closer to the Delmarva. But this should hit hard on the front end and the NAM’s probably too far out to resolve that well yet. Thank you...thank you....thank you....for keepin hope alive. RGEM just showed a nice front end thumping for many here. so why do we see this westward bump just below us? I'm thinking the 500lp is playing into it as its trying to stack, but it has been a painfully consistent feature of late. Just trying to understand whats causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 The mag post that helped sum up the early models runs made me realize that we are doing pretty well with our pbp, discussion and analysis here as of late. Pretty good group of weather folks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: This 100% Mag summed it up. Out of range. So is the GFS the mauling we’ve been waiting for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: The mag post that helped sum up the early models runs made me realize that we are doing pretty well with our pbp, discussion and analysis here as of late. Pretty good group of weather folks. Yes I’m hitting all the key points 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The 0z ICON was a very nice snow hit for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z ICON was a very nice snow hit for most of us. Well cash called that one. Paw paw gets 3 to 4 more than either himself or me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Well cash called that one. Paw paw gets 3 to 4 more than either himself or me. How much for Coffin Rock? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: How much for Coffin Rock? Looks about the same as paw paw on that icon map. Ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Gfs hammering n md Sunday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Gfs hammering n md Sunday evening. Indeed as well as the LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 By Monday morning the low is over Long Island with wrap around back into most of CTP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Wrap around light snow still ongoing at 18z Monday early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The GFS tonight decided not to head to Toledo like it did yesterday - good sign! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 0z GFS Snow map for most of CTP is similar to 18z Kuchera & 10-1 are similar. Harrisburg area is around 8 inches of snow again this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Pivotal snow map is still wonky showed little snow at the M/D line where the surface map showed heavy snow. Either way a good run. Most of PA gets in decent snow or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @canderson Check this wind on the 0z GFS Wind speed & gusts! Just imagine Front St. tree damage! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 0z GFS Snow map for most of CTP is similar to 18z Kuchera & 10-1 are similar. Harrisburg area is around 8 inches of snow again this run. @MAG5035 looks to be the winner this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I’ve been watching the consistent heavy snows on guidance over here and thinking how you couldn’t get any better of a Sunday Night than getting buried while watching the Steelers drop KC on SNF haha. But I’ll be sweating the game and getting the first 6 inches on the ground I’m sure lol. And on that note, it’s too bad this game wasn’t in Pittsburgh. It would be right in the thick of the storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I’ve been watching the consistent heavy snows on guidance over here and thinking how you couldn’t get any better of a Sunday Night than getting buried while watching the Steelers drop KC on SNF haha. But I’ll be sweating the game and getting the first 6 inches on the ground I’m sure lol. And on that note, it’s too bad this game wasn’t in Pittsburgh. It would be right in the thick of the storm. Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story. Power outages would be a blessing for Steeler fans with that game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, KPITSnow said: Power outages would be a blessing for Steeler fans with that game. Ha. I think the Steel makes a game of it if the bad mahomes shows. Understand why you think it's a blowout though. Maybe it is.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Any potential power outages, maybe not your way but for Pitt fans in the MA and South East PA, could be a minor story. Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in. If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control! If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 The major ALEET is here from DT tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thankfully our teams playoff games are earlier in the day before the wind kicks in. If the Eagles somehow upset the Bucs while snow onset is on my doorstep…I will be out of control! If the more likely scenario happens that the Bucs knock the Eagles out, then at least the snow will quickly cheer me up! Just hope we make a game of it. We seem to be coming together at the right time. Defense really needs to show up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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