pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 TT server crash imminent.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Hour 69, low jumps to Wilmington NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 So at 69 we have two waves. It happened so late that warm air is already surging west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I don't like hour 78. Sleetfest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So at 69 we have two waves. It happened so late that warm air is already surging west. Nam picking up on quicker change over 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam at longggggg range but it was an improvement at h5 and surface compared to 18z I agree and this is actually a snow storm this time. It's west of us but a little more believable result vs. 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 I know, snow maps and all, but the NAM gave me a tenth of an inch of snow and six tenths inch of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I agree and this is actually a snow storm this time. It's west of us but a little more believable result vs. 18z It’s actually fairly in line with all the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam at longggggg range but it was an improvement at h5 and surface compared to 18z sure was. And what that means...dunno, but I'll take any +'s I can and at 3 days out...? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam at longggggg range but it was an improvement at h5 and surface compared to 18z Yes, the track was in line with other models from today. Long way to go…. On to the ICON? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Voyager said: I know, snow maps and all, but the NAM gave me a tenth of an inch of snow and six tenths inch of freezing rain. Just think of the sleet as snow insurance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: It’s actually fairly in line with all the other models. It's a bit west with the fall line for snow. Euro has 8-12 here and nam has a pity inch, but for you guys I think it is more similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 Am I missing something? On Pivotal, it shows almost no snow accumulation in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Am I missing something? On Pivotal, it shows almost no snow accumulation in my backyard. Same here and matches the surface maps I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Same here and matches the surface maps I saw. If that NAM run would verify, the high winds with the better than half inch of ice would create a nightmare here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Voyager said: If that NAM run would verify, the high winds with the better than half inch of ice would create a nightmare here... many of my maps are stuck at 36. you on pivotal or tt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: If that NAM run would verify, the high winds with the better than half inch of ice would create a nightmare here... I did not look at the surface to see how cold it actually was on the ground but yea a lot of ice. As you pointed out the nam transfer (or moved where the panel was showing the lowest point of pressure) at 69 but 850's are already failing in WV by that point. Not a good scene for snow even some of the places that it did show snow. The inland low just gets so far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: boy that little bit of retro action really screws our pooch.. this would suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: many of my maps are stuck at 36. you on pivotal or tt Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 60 mph winds with 1/4” ice in trees is catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Streak Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Someone let @Wmsptwx know about this wind! He asked during the overnight shift and I deferred to our forum wind super expert @canderson ! Do we have an approximate time when this wind will start? I thought I read/heard that Friday would be quite blustery and Saturday even worse but I didn’t think it was supposed to be that bad on either of those days. Does the more extreme wind start on Sunday along with this weather event (whatever it turns out to be)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Nam could be right but I think snow to brief mix to dryslot to backend snow showers. I'm not buying a freezing rain event It has pittsburgh with freezing rain seems pretty crazy although wouldn't be the first time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, canderson said: 60 mph winds with 1/4” ice in trees is catastrophic. Absolutely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 here is what we need to overcome... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Rd9108 said: It has pittsburgh with freezing rain seems pretty crazy although wouldn't be the first time. It transfers/weakens the app runner too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Streak said: Does the more extreme wind start on Sunday along with this weather event (whatever it turns out to be)? Monday/Tues 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 14, 2022 Author Share Posted January 14, 2022 Rgem in the gulf at 54 but it too has two areas of 850's rising to its North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: I do think the winds and severity are being underestimated . Haven't heard much talk from mets . Beating the dead horse hit winds will be the bigger issue here than snow. 6-10l isn’t a massive deal - sustained winds at 40 for 2 days and countless gusts maybe to 70 over that span is a nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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