Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Festus]

If the winds verify, that's going to be as big or bigger story here.  I haven't gusted north of 60 in a long time.

[Bubbler86]

5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

That’s a different interpretation than WeatherBell’s snow map. The GFS on WB has the whole LSV in the 5-7” with no weird reduction like that map. I mean according to that DC is still seeing 6”.  If that’s a Kuchera map I wonder if that one (assuming that’s a Pivotal map) calculates it differently. Kuchera is ideal to use in a stable cold snow column. When it’s on the fringes where there could be mixing and/or marginal surface temps (which I’m seeing a good bit of 34ºF in the LSV while still in the main precip) the equation that calculates Kuchera could put out an unrealistically low ratio even if primary p-type is snow. Counter to that, if you have a truly frigid column.. your going to see unrealistically high ratios.  At any rate Pivotal and WeatherBell must calculate that differently. 

Here’s WB, most of the LSV stuff is right up front. I’ll also note that 10:1 in the LSV is pretty similar to this Kuchera. 

 

Mag, it was the pivotal 10-1 map because many stations were higher on it than kuchera showed. 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Festus said:

If the winds verify, that's going to be as big or bigger story here.  I haven't gusted north of 60 in a long time.

I think winds will be a much bigger story than snow. Mass power outages with near zero temps is a serious major issue. 

[Voyager]

21 minutes ago, cfbaggett said:

This is an eye opener... Days upon days with the possibility of subzero lows...

If those temps were Celsius, I would not complain, but they aren't, so 

13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I going with team voyager on opinions for this.  

The emoji above says it all...

[Cashtown_Coop]

18z euro hammer time 

 

 

 

 

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

18z euro hammer time 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks for posting.  Serious front end.  By the time the low gravitates to us, I would think most of the LSV should be near or over double digits. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Best run in a while 

[Voyager]

Still amazing to see that low go from the mouth of the Chesapeake to the MD panhandle, and THEN scoot northeast.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Lancaster folk might want to tie the shovels and deck furniture down

 

Guessing Canderson wont come this way for a road trip...

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Voyager said:

Still amazing to see that low go from the mouth of the Chesapeake to the MD panhandle, and THEN scoot northeast.

Hr 81 looks sweet them hr 84 the low is heading right for me.   Would be very rare.   Models are insistent on this 

[KPITSnow]

Can someone explain the incredibly odd dry slotting happening to the west of the system? 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hr 81 looks sweet them hr 84 the low is heading right for me.   Would be very rare.   Models are insistent on this 

 

I still think we are seeing some jumping of lowest pressures with multiple waves.  I know we are down south.  

[Cashtown_Coop]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

It's I still think we are seeing some jumping of lowest pressures with multiple waves.  I know we are down south.  

Question, with the cold low levels and warm air racing aloft, could models be missing the potential sleet layer.   If we get caught in that zone, I could see a sleet feast 

to add: seems like snow right up to the low center.   25 mile mix zone 

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Still amazing to see that low go from north central NC to the mouth of the Chesapeake to the MD panhandle, and THEN scoot northeast.

I can remember a few of them as a kid.  They came right up into the mouth of the Chesapeake before gettin the heck outta there and scooting offshore.

Boy did I leave that open to interpretation.....

[Bubbler86]

7 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Question, with the cold low levels and warm air racing aloft, could models be missing the potential sleet layer.   If we get caught in that zone, I could see a sleet feast 

to add: seems like snow right up to the low center.   

Watching the Upper layers on the models I keep seeing 850's breaking down far to the west of the "primary low" .  Somethings up...it's not a simple cold to the left, warm to the right situation.  We know 850 is driving to the west of the "L" on the surface maps but could it be driving in somewhat unison with the other wave?  Just model talk.  Waiting for a met to come shoot me down.  I will not be offended. 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, canderson said:

I expect to lose some siding / shingles from this system. Sandy took off a bunch and this probably is windier. 

Someone let @Wmsptwx know about this wind!

He asked during the overnight shift and I deferred to our forum wind super expert @canderson !

[Chris78]

52 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Thanks for posting.  Serious front end.  By the time the low gravitates to us, I would think most of the LSV should be near or over double digits. 

And the nice thing about the euro is we would go from Heavy snow to dry slot fairly quick. With that track we wouldn't see much rain. Probably some drizzle and then a switch back to light snow/flurries Monday morning. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I like this map.

Very bold for them 3 to 4 days out.

[Voyager]

44 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I can remember a few of them as a kid.  They came right up into the mouth of the Chesapeake before gettin the heck outta there and scooting offshore.

Boy did I leave that open to interpretation.....

I was talking about the left hook to the MD/WV panhandle before scooting ENE. I, too, remember many that came close and took off out to sea.

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

And the nice thing about the euro is we would go from Heavy snow to dry slot fairly quick. With that track we wouldn't see much rain. Probably some drizzle and then a switch back to light snow/flurries Monday morning. 

The 18z euro was beautiful.  Almost hesitated under us for a bit.  If we had not let March 93 or Jan 2000 sneak into our minds (well me at least), the 18z euro would seem like a super win.

[mahantango#1]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like this map.

Very bold for them 3 to 4 days out.

Usually they downplay it. I thought they would be cautious especially after just a few years ago when they had a accumulation map out with some that were over a foot. And if I remember correctly we ended up in the 2-3 inch range.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

The 18z euro was beautiful.  Almost hesitated under us for a bit.  If we had not let March 93 or Jan 2000 sneak into our minds (well me at least), the 18z euro would seem like a super win.

Looks like the deform is going to be west/north west of us. Just gotta hope the wwa precip comes in hot and heavy and we max out on that. Obviously the further north into PA the better chance you have to keep 850's but right here on the M/D line I don't think we will be able to hold onto the mid levels.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Best run in a while 

Yes, very good 18z Euro run.

I love seeing the low position at the southern end of the DelMarVa peninsula. Usually that is a great position that delivers the heavy snow goods to the LSV during a solid coastal storm.

Here is a close up of this panel at 10pm Sunday night.

 

[Cashtown_Coop]

Nearly the entire state is at 70% or higher at seeing .25” frozen qpf per WPC 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is a close up CTP view of the 18z Euro snow map.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is a close up CTP view of the 18z Euro snow map.

 

It a still lightly snowing over most of PA at the end of the 90 hour 18z run, so most of us would tack on maybe another 1 or 2 inches of snow on top of these amounts.

 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Looks like the deform is going to be west/north west of us. Just gotta hope the wwa precip comes in hot and heavy and we max out on that. Obviously the further north into PA the better chance you have to keep 850's but right here on the M/D line I don't think we will be able to hold onto the mid levels.

 

Yea, there has not be any model run, in quite some time, where we stay all snow. 

[Bubbler86]

Does the Nam redeem itself?    I am not as eager to defend it as of late.  It's never been, or ever will be, as bad as some make it out to be, buts its not been "hot" as of late. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, there has not be any model run, in quite some time, where we stay all snow. 

Many of the great storms mix at the height or end of the storm.

Both of our major 1 foot snow storms last year had mixing for a few hours.

It helps with snow preservation in the long run! 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, there has not be any model run, in quite some time, where we stay all snow. 

Who know…spin the Wheel of the NAM and see what you get?

I think the NAM does much better under 48 hours…but sometimes it’s 4.8 hours out until it gets a clue.