kerplunk Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Nam has always had merit w/ some of us and rightfully so. ICON is purely shown for continuity....and fun. I dont know anyone in here that uses it for anymore than that. Fodder for weather chatter... True…the NAM is often referred to in the short range, and I have noticed you’re one who often gives it credit. Almost edited my post to say they’re both good for adding more to the overall discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I don’t recall a system ever behaving the way it is being depicted by the NAM - at least not since I moved to Pennsylvania 15 or so years ago. I can’t wrap my head around a low near savannah hooking so far NW Erie gets plain rain. Edit: NAM/ICON, not GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 ABC WHTM has a snow map out already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Lancaster folk might want to tie the shovels and deck furniture down I think that 60 is blowing through downtown Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I think that 60 is blowing through downtown Harrisburg. I expect to lose some siding / shingles from this system. Sandy took off a bunch and this probably is windier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lancaster folk might want to tie the shovels and deck furniture down Is that 850 winds or surface winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: ABC WHTM has a snow map out already. I would think that’s kind of early. The storm just come ashore let it hit the Rockies. Then put a map out based on them conditions. Would give you a truer picture I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Surface gusts mph Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 I thought the afternoon CTP disco was very good. It seemed like at least at present they were saying that the first half of the storm should be all snow everywhere. That's about as far as their "likely" feelings went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 22 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: ABC WHTM has a snow map out already. You gonna share it or hwut? All I have here is MAG, because he's legitimately the best meteorologist in his area and he's not on TV lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We tossed the Nam about an hour ago. It's GFS or bust right now. I get the finger though and Lanco/York are not going to like it. Just got home from work and saw this - between 8-9" at Harrisburg and Reading with less than 1.5" at Lancaster? Could happen. Probably won't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just got home from work and saw this - between 8-9" at Harrisburg and Reading with less than 1.5" at Lancaster? Could happen. Probably won't happen. Not likely. Although I'll take this version lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Just got home from work and saw this - between 8-9" at Harrisburg and Reading with less than 1.5" at Lancaster? Could happen. Probably won't happen. If it does I’ll be kind and let you come shovel my snow. That way you don’t feel ripped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: You gonna share it or hwut? All I have here is MAG, because he's legitimately the best meteorologist in his area and he's not on TV lol 3-6”’ se counties 6-10” strip of counties western lsv 10+“‘ Fulton north to mifflin roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: If it does I’ll be kind and let you come shovel my snow. That way you don’t feel ripped off. Thanks! Fortunately, I don't live in Lancaster and my house is safely within the purple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 @Jonesy56 thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonesy56 said: . That is actually quite "high" for a TV met call this early in the progression. That is an easy win if it happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Thanks! Fortunately, I don't live in Lancaster and my house is safely within the purple. You’re in the county! The river will be the dividing line of snow. We all get 60-70 mph winds. Its a cat 1 hurricane essentially . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is actually quite "high" for a TV met call this early in the progression. That is an easy win if it happened. If we could get the 6-10 to cover our se friends it would be A+ map for everyone 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Jonesy56 thank you! Deleted mine, yours was better sans Finkenbinder standing in the way. 8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is actually quite "high" for a TV met call this early in the progression. That is an easy win if it happened. Agreed, a little surprised they put that out tonight.. not outlandish, but 72 hours out.. Chuck Rhodes would never! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 This is an eye opener... Days upon days with the possibility of subzero lows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 Looks like the blue / grey line bisects my house. Hopefully the 3" is on the driveway side so I have less to shovel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, CarlislePaWx said: One thing my weather friends have told me is you need the 700 low to pass south of you for precip to be good and warming aloft to be mitigated. This depiction shows the low south of the m/d line, which is at least one positive (for those of us in lsv). Yep, and as I'm looking over GFS at 700, it does do just that. Gets close to M/D line, but then scoots NE, but stays south of us. If one toggles through the track of the SLP it looks to bounce around like a yo yo. We'll find out soon enough, but seems wonky to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 13, 2022 Author Share Posted January 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: This is an eye opener... Days upon days with the possibility of subzero lows... I going with team voyager on opinions for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, pawatch said: I’ll be back Friday....Fingers crossed Edit:Friday Smart man.... May be a rough ride and not worth the pain in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, Festus said: Looks like the blue / grey line bisects my house. Hopefully the 3" is on the driveway side so I have less to shovel. Mine as well - good thing most of my yard is on the north side of my yard so it's in the 6-10" range. Driveway faces south...3-6". Perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: We tossed the Nam about an hour ago. It's GFS or bust right now. I get the finger though and Lanco/York are not going to like it. That’s a different interpretation than WeatherBell’s snow map. The GFS on WB has the whole LSV in the 5-7” with no weird reduction like that map. I mean according to that DC is still seeing 6”. If that’s a Kuchera map I wonder if that one (assuming that’s a Pivotal map) calculates it differently. Kuchera is ideal to use in a stable cold snow column. When it’s on the fringes where there could be mixing and/or marginal surface temps (which I’m seeing a good bit of 34ºF in the LSV while still in the main precip) the equation that calculates Kuchera could put out an unrealistically low ratio even if primary p-type is snow. Counter to that, if you have a truly frigid column.. your going to see unrealistically high ratios. At any rate Pivotal and WeatherBell must calculate that differently. Here’s WB, most of the LSV stuff is right up front. I’ll also note that 10:1 in the LSV is pretty similar to this Kuchera. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 @MAG5035 that looks like a much better presentation/distribution. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 14, 2022 Share Posted January 14, 2022 1 hour ago, kerplunk said: True…the NAM is often referred to in the short range, and I have noticed you’re one who often gives it credit. Almost edited my post to say they’re both good for adding more to the overall discussion. Well lets say they both add, but one notably more than the other. Ground truth we know better than too put much weight into extrapolating the NAM, but as we are trying to connect the weather dots...we all search for clues. Guess that's one way of putting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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