Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[paweather]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

So how about a 90% contour for above normal probabilities covering all or part of 25 states on the CPC Day 8-14 map?

Makes sense given the models

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

So how about a 90% contour for above normal probabilities covering all or part of 25 states on the CPC Day 8-14 map?

Time for a trip to the Sierra - after an incredibly dry, warm November. Mammoth, Squall Valley and company might finally be able to build a base. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, paweather said:

Makes sense given the models

Certainly does. That said, I look at those maps regularly, and it’s rare that there’s a 90% area anywhere near that big.

[canderson]

Winds out west around Altoona and Pittsburgh are 10-15 mph stronger than forecast. Pitt gusting to 44. 

[paweather]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Certainly does. That said, I look at those maps regularly, and it’s rare that there’s a 90% area anywhere near that big.

Yes this was on the models for days Almost everywhere in the US. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

Winds out west around Altoona and Pittsburgh are 10-15 mph stronger than forecast. Pitt gusting to 44. 

Can confirm, it has been very gusty out here.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

There’s always the hope against hope that maybe, just maybe the one run (so far) of the operational GFS that makes it cold from the 18th on (and differs wildly from the ensemble at this juncture) is right.

Differs wildly is an understatement, but yeah if one looks at NAO that’s around the time it looks to possibly start down. So to your point, we need more runs to start showing this. MJO heading well into 7 around that time and would give your hope a chance if so. Brought this up last week and it’s good to see that it’s still in play. 

[Bubbler86]

18Z HRRR and Nam still expand the mid week moisture back into the LSV (and beyond a bit) for a 1-2" on the grass, mulch and car tops.    Icon and GFS are not expanding it back as far. 

[Itstrainingtime]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

18Z HRRR and Nam still expand the mid week moisture back into the LSV (and beyond a bit) for a 1-2" on the grass, mulch and car tops.    Icon and GFS are not expanding it back as far. 

18z NAM has an area of enhancement across the south central mountains and parts of the LSV that most other models do. Other area is well south of the M/D line.

[Voyager]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Better than no snow, right? 

I posted the same in the mid-atlantic, but I'm taking a blend of the euro and gfs. Not as amped as the GFS, but not as dry as the euro. somewhere in between. I think places along the PA/MD border could eek out 1-2"

I'll take no snow over a sloppy half inch. I can't stand all the salt and mess for something of so little consequence. 

[Bubbler86]

10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

18z NAM has an area of enhancement across the south central mountains and parts of the LSV that most other models do. Other area is well south of the M/D line.

Will need the cold miser to blow some cold air in for any real accumulation regardless of precip.   

[canderson]

It has taken farrrrrrrrr longer than I expected for winds to hit the LSV. Thought it’d be calm by midnight but with the delay it’ll blow hard until 5 or so am. 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, canderson said:

It has taken farrrrrrrrr longer than I expected for winds to hit the LSV. Thought it’d be calm by midnight but with the delay it’ll blow hard until 5 or so am. 

We had a gust to 45 here. 

[canderson]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

We had a gust to 45 here. 

It just started ramping up here - has been flat calm the last 4 hours. Pittsburgh is still blowing 10-15 more than forecast. 

[paweather]

Buffalo snow and flurries tonight

[Blizzard of 93]

I would take the 18z NAM & 18z HRRR for Wednesday.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Buffalo snow and flurries tonight

I really enjoy snow games.

[CarlislePaWx]

If anyone reads the forecast discussion out of CTP (timestamp 2:31pm EST), it seems that they don't want to discuss the Wednesday event at all.  The discussion ends late afternoon Tuesday and then skips to Thursday.    I wonder when they'll catch that?

[Blizzard of 93]

34 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Will need the cold miser to blow some cold air in for any real accumulation regardless of precip.   

 

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. 

Wednesday

Light snow likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

Tuesday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Light and variable wind. 

Wednesday

Light snow likely, mainly between 8am and 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 35. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Temps look good to accumulate, especially with the low sun angle.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is CTP’s latest Hazardous Outlook for most of our region.

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Light snow accumulation between a coating and 2 inches is becoming
more probable on Wednesday and could result in travel disruptions.

 

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

If anyone reads the forecast discussion out of CTP (timestamp 2:31pm EST), it seems that they don't want to discuss the Wednesday event at all.  The discussion ends late afternoon Tuesday and then skips to Thursday.    I wonder when they'll catch that?

Yea I did - looks like an edit took out the Wednesday part and they didn’t notice lol 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z Euro shows slight improvement for Wednesday.

 

[TimB]

18z GFS: ugly for the midweek storm, ugly for any backend snow potential this weekend, ugly for the long term.

Also saw that the 90% above normal probability on the 8-14 day outlook I posted earlier is the largest 90% above normal area on an 8-14 day outlook since…

 

 

December 15, 2015. 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

18z GFS: ugly for the midweek storm, ugly for any backend snow potential this weekend, ugly for the long term.

Also saw that the 90% above normal probability on the 8-14 day outlook I posted earlier is the largest 90% above normal area on an 8-14 day outlook since…

 

 

December 15, 2015. 

 

Yeah, it will probably never ever snow again and stuff….

My glass is always half full, but yours seems to always be half empty….

You might want to consider taking a break if it gets you this upset.

[Blizzard of 93]

11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z Eps also starting to look a bit more vigorous at 500. Qpf responding some . At least now we have some semblance of moisture  ( it was literally bone dry pretty much before ). Right on cue with the ol' ..."at 36 hour we get reeled back in"

0z Nam 

 

Yes, back to optimistic thoughts…

The 18z EPS was a step in the right direction.

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Yeah, it will probably never ever snow again and stuff….

My glass is always half full, but yours seems to always be half empty….

You might want to consider taking a break if it gets you this upset.

Wouldn’t say I’m upset at all. Just noting that this isn’t merely a garden-variety non-winter-like pattern in winter, the magnitude and duration is rare.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

Wouldn’t say I’m upset at all. Just noting that this isn’t merely a garden-variety non-winter-like pattern in winter, the magnitude and duration is rare.

I certainly didn't read anything into what you posted as being negative. You commented on what you posted, which is likely going to be accurate. 

You're fine. 

[TimB]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I certainly didn't read anything into what you posted as being negative. You commented on what you posted, which is likely going to be accurate. 

You're fine. 

The only thing I’ll say is it might be jumping the gun to think about how bad the upcoming pattern is when there are legitimate snow chances (albeit modest ones) in the near term.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

The only thing I’ll say is it might be jumping the gun to think about how bad the upcoming pattern is when there are legitimate snow chances (albeit modest ones) in the near term.

It’s all good. No denying the warm up next week, but it should be temporary.

I’m looking forward to the minor event on Wednesday.
Then I’m looking ahead to the week of the 20th when we should be starting to return to a better pattern. The MJO should be going into phase 7 which should help to turn the pattern more favorable for winter weather towards the holidays.