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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, canderson said:

That likely is a bad sign I'd think if you like snow in the LSV. 

Road trip to Tennessee?

It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction.   This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good.   850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

It is quite a bit different in that it holds on to the inland slp to a higher latitude which puts in more in line with the GFS depiction.   This allows the ULL features to get much farther north which is, as you said, not good.   850 low is over S PA which means it's "over" for south PA at that point. 

 

 

That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio.

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2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio.

Yep.  What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts.  Warm surges Northward with it.  850 low scouring many out at hour 81.  The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change. 

image.png.f1638fae308ef3e4d970ceb79a09e18c.png

 

 

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11 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep.  What was once a Miler A like Gulf coast run went to the inland SLP punching well up into the Lower Ohio Valley before a real transfer starts.  Warm surges Northward with it.  850 low scouring many out at hour 81.  The Nam out of range gang gets one for their side with this change. 

image.png.f1638fae308ef3e4d970ceb79a09e18c.png

 

 

3k NAM is half of Alabama south at 60. Low center is on the gulf coast.

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18 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

That’s an ugly run for everyone but Ohio.

yeah it SLP still dancing around a bit, but once it got to coast, it also headed straight at us.  Cant deny that that trend on some guidance...

I wanna toss.....but know better.  

Someone say we can toss it :lol:

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Toss it

Thx....but dont look at Icon...definitely a new trend...and not a good one (out to 69 anyway).

18z arent gonna make many here happy....me thinks.  I hope I'm wrong.

edit....I'm not wrong.  0-2 so far... almost tried to retrograde at one point.  I've been preparing for a westward adjustment, but that was rather notable.  

 

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm unclear, what's not going to verify. I simply said that was Bubbler posted was easy to understand, and made sense what he drew up. 

Speaking of this, the 18Z GFS still has two surface reflections (at least) per this panel...but also some darn heavy snow in there.   Note the mix poking up into S/W PA from the inland reflection which is supported by the ULL. 

 

image.png.d7037fddb2f123be0183a8b942308034.png

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7 minutes ago, kerplunk said:

Seems to me the Icon and NAM are usually not given as much weight here—unless they show a crushing.

Nam has always had merit w/ some of us and rightfully so.

ICON is purely shown for continuity....and fun.  I dont know anyone in here that uses it for anymore than that.  Fodder for weather chatter...

 

 

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I just don’t see a lot of merit to a dual-headed monster roaming up the coast. Seems to me that with these systems, the low strengthens and deepens off the coast. Can a met help me understand what Synoptics are at play here that would prevent the full transfer of energy and the intensification of a primary low?

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GFS really wasnt too bad.

Here is warmest panel when its go time up here.  

700's and 850's.  If were gonna pick on to hug....this is it

gfs_T700_neus_15.png

gfs_T850_neus_15.png

after this panel, wraparound is lifting out and column crashes...

Its a nailbiter...still (a little amish slang coming out for my Lanco crew)

 

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7 minutes ago, medmax said:

I just don’t see a lot of merit to a dual-headed monster roaming up the coast. Seems to me that with these systems, the low strengthens and deepens off the coast. Can a met help me understand what Synoptics are at play here that would prevent the full transfer of energy and the intensification of a primary low?

I see it is a sort of Miller B like scenario but you are right, this is not your typical coastal takes over and goes into Bomb mode.  The modeling shows this as being a mess with a new low that is captured.  There is also the issue of the ULL 850 and 500 level energy that does not transfer completely at first.  

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