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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, Newman said:

Thump -> Sleet -> Brief period of rain -> Dry slot. This won't be a high end MECS or HECS like it could've been. But I think many of us would take a 6-10" thump

best accums shifted east.  Showing for trends...not forecasts.  Cant believe I still need to say that....but I do...and i will.

0z

snku_acc.us_ma.png

nooner

snku_acc.us_ma.png

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4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hr 90 low over chessy bay

Hr 93 over Frederick County

Hr 96 jumps to NJ

 

So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure.   See snip below with Low 2 pointed out.

 

image.png.ede72cdb387d5b8907a89e365dd5d122.png

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hr 90 low over chessy bay

Hr 93 over Frederick County

Hr 96 jumps to NJ

 

So...we have consensus for the sharp turn north/northwest to about our latitude before it abruptly pinballs northeast. If we slow down the whole process, would that shift the low further west or east? 

Do we root for faster of slower with this? 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure.   See snip below with Low 2 pointed out.

 

image.png.ede72cdb387d5b8907a89e365dd5d122.png

 

 

Yes, that makes sense and I'm seeing that as well. I'm trying to figure out if we want faster or slowe progression. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

So I propose that instead of moving from Chessy to Frederick then NJ, its still dual barrel and the model is just bouncing around to the lowest pressure.   See snip below with Low 2 pointed out.

 

image.png.ede72cdb387d5b8907a89e365dd5d122.png

 

 

How does the model compute that with relation to precip type.   To me this was pretty close to a bingo run.    

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8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yes, that makes sense and I'm seeing that as well. I'm trying to figure out if we want faster or slowe progression. 

As long as we have two areas of LP, if I am right, we have to pay attention to the left one as it will break the hearts of people who are focused on the right one.....basically it's one larger area of LP so 850's and surface will fail well inland even though the low "appears" to be way over the Chessy. 

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3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

How does the model compute that with relation to precip type.   To me this was pretty close to a bingo run.    

Look at the 2M map.  The temps are failing way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel.   Again, my interpretation.  Others may have their own.  Look at this 850 map.  Low is well west at 90. 

 

image.png.b5f6a9e2301f1a16eff98dba56589edc.pngimage.png.2b53b7fc9e8ece1f69200f9b4b5e3e11.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Look at the 2M map.  The temps are failed way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel.   Again, my interpretation.  Others may have their own.

 

image.png.b5f6a9e2301f1a16eff98dba56589edc.png

 

 

Thanks.  Makes sense.   Being on the west side of ridge will def help you hold on longer.   It’s not a sw push more of se correct.   (Warm air)

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1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Thanks.  Makes sense.   Being on the west side of ridge will def help you hold on longer.   It’s not a sw push more of se correct.   (Warm air)

Yea, if I can stay on the NW side of the Surface presentation I should hold a  bit longer even if just sleet/frz vs. plain rain.  But its really close. I did not see a 93 map but you said it was showing the lowest pressure over Frederick.  I think I would be changed if so. 

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12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The 12z Euro & GFS are making my lunch break that much better.

Good to see the slight eastward progression today. 
Close agreement on snow between these 2 models at this time.

The zig zag nature of the low as it approaches the MD/VA still looks bizarre. I still think we have time more more positive trends.

 

 

 

It's  farther South and East than the GFS and GEM which is great. 

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4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, if I can stay on the NW side of the Surface presentation I should hold a  bit longer even if just sleet/frz vs. plain rain.  But its really close. I did not see a 93 map but you said it was showing the lowest pressure over Frederick.  I think I would be changed if so. 

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ne.png

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_state_de_md.png

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8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Look at the 2M map.  The temps are failing way away from the "L" because the low is really an elongated dual barrel that is much farther West than the L it focused on for that panel.   Again, my interpretation.  Others may have their own.  Look at this 850 map.  Low is well west at 90. 

 

image.png.b5f6a9e2301f1a16eff98dba56589edc.pngimage.png.2b53b7fc9e8ece1f69200f9b4b5e3e11.png

 

 

That...is a great illustration. Makes complete sense given the setup. Easy to understand as well. 

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17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

So...we have consensus for the sharp turn north/northwest to about our latitude before it abruptly pinballs northeast. If we slow down the whole process, would that shift the low further west or east? 

Do we root for faster of slower with this? 

IMO if we slow it down and 500 stacks....great.  Column cools....we snow

If we slow down and 500 doesnt capture, it tugs SLP inland screwin up your and my thermals while others are making naked snow angels

much guidance has shown 500 tailing behind a bit. that worries me as inland solutions cant be discounted IMO. 

All the same, we are all close to something pretty nice.

Anyone else have a thought/theory?  

 

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21 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That...is a great illustration. Makes complete sense given the setup. Easy to understand as well. 

I would need a Met to sign off on my model interpretation but I am fairly sure it is dual barrel when down in the South east.   The low transfers but seems to maintain a reflection post transfer as it moves North East. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Festus said:

That gradient between the have's and have nots is pretty sick.  With features still roughly 2000 miles away, +/- 25 miles around here will have huge implications.  

I keep telling myself this very thing. Such complexity overall, add in the fact it's still 72 hours out and just the slightest adjustments are going to mean a lot to our end result. 

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9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I keep telling myself this very thing. Such complexity overall, add in the fact it's still 72 hours out and just the slightest adjustments are going to mean a lot to our end result. 

We all need to keep telling ourselves that.  All this verbatim analysis is a big big part of the fun, but until we get closer....its just that...fun.  

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

42

Surprised my snow wasn't almost gone . Still about 40-50% coverage .

A quick browse through the thread looks like guidance ticked east . :popcorn:

Its in the 50's over in Western Franklin County.  So not too bad here.  Nice to get out.  Not all guidance ticket East but the Euro kept us in the big dog game.  Nam is running. 

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