Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 WPC has juiced up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Those of you in the LSV should get a good whack from this system. Areas like Franklin/Adams/York counties should clean up along the southern tier before any flip occurs. I think a spot like @Cashtown_Coopshould get hammered along with those along I-81 up to Harrisburg. I'll poke in over the next succession of days. Look forward to living vicariously What about me? Far enough north to miss the taint, or far enough east to get the taint? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Voyager said: What about me? Far enough north to miss the taint, or far enough east to get the taint? I...... Jk. I think your area will be right on the tightrope. If the GFS was right, you'd flip to sleet. Euro would be a high chance of staying all snow. I think your area could do very well with this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 55 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 46 at 2:30 here. You are 14 degrees warmer than me. That has to be a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: Wow, I didn't even notice the difference over the OH Valley. And that snowfall is within ~100 hours now for people who don't get much snow! Probably shouldn't post these images in the Central PA forum, but they do, at least for me, help me stay grounded and not worry about individual models or particular runs, even at these relative short ranges. Those maps are indeed not good for people here but its part of weather. On some depictions, this system has gone from slipping along the Gulf then sweeping up the S/E to threatening to keep some UL components not all that far south of our latitude. . The big dream of a low sweeping up from the deep south is turning in a much more convoluted Miller situation. Much more difficult to forecast precip types. NC has gone from mention of Jan 2000 to a front end ice storm transitioning to heavy rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I...... Jk. I think your area will be right on the tightrope. If the GFS was right, you'd flip to sleet. Euro would be a high chance of staying all snow. I think your area could do very well with this system as well. Thanks. That's kind of what I gathered from reading the posts. I'm working, so I don't have time to look at models at all. Just enough time while I'm loading to read the thoughts here. Plus, trying to do model maps on a phone kind of sucks...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: You are 14 degrees warmer than me. That has to be a record. I do not think so. Its pretty typical when warmer air is coming in from the S/W. A thicker cloud deck has moved in and its down to 43. HGR at 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, canderson said: You are 14 degrees warmer than me. That has to be a record. As the crow flies, bub and I are 13 miles apart and 13 degrees difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As the crow flies, bub and I are 13 miles apart and 13 degrees difference. Fun times. Someone is getting rocked with this system - it's pretty exciting. When models are lock in a system like they have (differences yes but they all have teh same system) you know it's go time for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: As the crow flies, bub and I are 13 miles apart and 13 degrees difference. The HRRR nailed it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Updated CTP grids carry all snow wording for all se counties so that’s good. Up to 80% sun nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 New Nam is in. SLP is quite a bit south of where I expected to see it but ULL is still looking like it would give us problems later on. Here is the surface at 84. Surface is south of the Gem and the whole state of Alabama south of GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS is locked in. Low over Winchester this time In a good spot then heads nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 37 for the high here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS is locked in. Low over Winchester this time In a good spot then heads nw. I just looked at 850 and this means we are definitely not staying all snow (this depiction, not a forecast. Hate to have to say that but apparently I need to) but its not out of the world crazy that its over blown/amped a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I just looked at 850 and this means we are definitely not staying all snow (this depiction, not a forecast. Hate to have to say that but apparently I need to) but its not out of the word that its over blown/amped a bit. Weird run. Looked like incoming nuke job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 That low goes directly over my house on the GFS. I don’t buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Weird run. Looked like incoming nuke job I personally am not too worried about snow accums vs. how far north the warm air push gets. Just a day ago we thought this was going to be a cold smoke/powder situation and now, Kuchera maps may very similar to 10-1 in some circumstances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 What's weird is that it suddenly slows down when it reaches us, then goes directly over us, then decides to move northeast rapidly. Still looks like a good thump with only a brief changeover, then ending as snow. 983 mb when it passes overhead. That's pretty close to 29.00" which would make it one of the lowest pressures we've seen around here in quite some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Updated CTP grids carry all snow wording for all se counties so that’s good. Up to 80% sun nite. CTP is likely playing climo likelihood of this ultimately running nearer to the coastline and ensemble support for now, which is a safe bet. It was also mentioned on their AFD of the antecedent cold in front of the system, which will be quite notable. Just realized my grids here have a high of 16 on Saturday, the day before this rolls up. That’s cold. With everything now on board, considering the differences between models.. none of them are really terrible for anyone in this subforum. Even though the GFS/Canadian is trying to Miller B this more than the Euro, it still has robust coastal development well before it gets to our latitude, and it still delivers good up front. But with that setup, you have to wonder with such a strong coastal low about how well those globals are handling P-types at this range. This thing’s progged to be a bomb (low 980s) on the GFS and Euro. Thats nothing to sneeze at. I would think that would quickly overwhelm any surge of warm air in the column from a presumptive remnant OH Valley low and present a snow-mix-snow scenario. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: CTP is likely playing climo likelihood of this ultimately running nearer to the coastline and ensemble support for now, which is a safe bet. It was also mentioned on their AFD of the antecedent cold in front of the system, which will be quite notable. Just realized my grids here have a high of 16 on Saturday, the day before this rolls up. That’s cold. With everything now on board, considering the differences between models.. none of them are really terrible for anyone in this subforum. Even though the GFS/Canadian is trying to Miller B this more than the Euro, it still has robust coastal development well before it gets to our latitude, and it still delivers good up front. But with that setup, you have to wonder with such a strong coastal low about how well those globals are handling P-types at this range. This thing’s progged to be a bomb (low 980s) on the GFS and Euro. Thats nothing to sneeze at. I would think that would quickly overwhelm any surge of warm air in the column from a presumptive remnant OH Valley low and present a snow-mix-snow scenario. One thing very noticeable in the GFS, and has been mentioned by many (Carlisle was one I think) , is it does go into an occlusion like situation over us so even though the low is in PA, there is still light snow over the track and even to the east of it. The warm push basically stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Like I've been saying...I look for trends....even subtle ones, as we dont need much to have this deal be a crowd pleaser...even here in the LSV. SLP is SE and height field a bit better as you can see the 528 diving in. Doesnt mean really anything yet, but something to watch as we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 can see it a bit better here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nice shift on the Gefs with mean low . It's going away from the miller B ish idea. Jumps to the coast much sooner . thats about the best news I've had all day. Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Like I've been saying...I look for trends....even subtle ones, as we dont need much to have this deal be a crowd pleaser...even here in the LSV. SLP is SE and height field a bit better as you can see the 528 diving in. Doesnt mean really anything yet, but something to watch as we get closer I only look at 500 mb track and that looks great on the GEFS.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I only look at 500 mb track and that looks great on the GEFS. . then you'll like the GIF I just posted just above yours w/ the RGEM... Any further suppression out front, should help thermals as this starts to come up. What I posted was not perfect, but small move in the right direction me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 CTP has this for my point forecast for what it's worth. Subject to change of course... M.L.King Day A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 as Mag suggested, w/ antecedent cold being pretty stout...coupled w/ a 1037HP to the north....I'm just not seeing how the GFS depiction of it attacking/cutting west makes alot of sense (thinking physics here). That couplet would argue for a correction SE. It may be starting to latch onto that theory, or something else above my pay grade. Dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: CTP has this for my point forecast for what it's worth. Subject to change of course... M.L.King Day A chance of rain, snow, and freezing rain before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Sounds like some politicians became weathermen. :-) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 as Mag suggested, w/ antecedent cold being pretty stout...coupled w/ a 1037HP to the north....I'm just not seeing how the GFS depiction of it attacking/cutting west makes alot of sense (thinking physics here). That couplet would argue for a correction SE. It may be starting to latch onto that theory, or something else above my pay grade. Dunno. The correction is happening. Even the ensembles show it. Op will show it soon.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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