pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, cfbaggett said: 6Z GFS operational low location versus GEFS individual ensemble members. Operational is really on the fringe of the spread. Great post. thanks for sharing. Still think SE adjustments are well w/in scope of options. Aint over yet (for us S and E folks, but if its a classic, well we know how that cookie crumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Not claiming superior knowledge to you haha but I would say yes that's a distinct possibility, with the stronger system producing more powerful mid-level winds off the ocean and thus increasing the probability of warm layers capable of producing sleet. There are many caveats to this but short answer is yes it could have that effect here. However, I'd still prefer to roll the dice with a wound-up crusher. If ENS guidance has a clue...so would I. If Op is leading the way.....I'm rooting the B on (hr 114)- as the the coastal would collapse the column and save you and I from taint/moist options that said Op presents. That happens far enough SE of us to really save us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, anotherman said: My problem is that the GEFS seems to be lagging behind the operational. The op is leading the way, and then the GEFS follow. So I'm glad the GEFS members are not as inland, but I'm not sure it matters. IMO at 5 days out, ENS guidance definitely holds value. From here in, that value will start to diminish, as Op starts to show us the way....right or wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Already up to 32 here. Headed for the 40's and maybe 50 (not LSV, west of the mountains). Will be a nice break for a day. Snowpack is already gone anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Already up to 32 here. Headed for the 40's and maybe 50 (not LSV, west of the mountains). Will be a nice break for a day. I'm only 23 still after an overnight low of 11.5 degrees...so no single digits for me this go 'round. But, still colder by one degree than my coldest of all last winter. I don't mind it warming up a bit especially if the old snow will be replaced with a very deep (?) new layer later Sunday. I'd like to throw my 2 cents in to @Itstrainingtime's question (and it's still along the lines of the other comments). The more powerful the low the more likely the accompanying cold front has occluded, which means the colder portion of the low can be much closer to the low's center where the eastern flank becomes overwhelmed with the cold air from the western side. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I'm only 23 still after an overnight low of 11.5 degrees...so no single digits for me this go 'round. But, still colder by one degree than my coldest of all last winter. I don't mind it warming up a bit especially if the old snow will be replaced with a very deep (?) new layer later Sunday. I'd like to throw my 2 cents in to @Itstrainingtime's question (and it's still along the lines of the other comments). The more powerful the low the more likely the accompanying cold front has occluded, which means the colder portion of the low can be much closer to the low's center where the eastern flank becomes overwhelmed with the cold air from the western side. Enough guidance suggests the GFS Op was still a little off. BUT, if it was onto something, he was correct. and as I type this, the Nooner NAM comes in notably south from earlier guidance - which would suggest that if one extrapolated, would likely not have a transfter and be a clean A. We should see what evolution it takes by later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Already up to 32 here. Headed for the 40's and maybe 50 (not LSV, west of the mountains). Will be a nice break for a day. Snowpack is already gone anyway. Just bumped up to 22 after a low of 8. Mostly Cloudy now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Just bumped up to 22 after a low of 8. Mostly Cloudy now Milky sunshine here. Some high clouds but not covering the sun. But all blue to the West. Up to 35 now. Its going to be a beaut over here today. Maybe you need something at Lowes to come on over and feel it for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 IMO this is a good sign. 6z nooner 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Someone in this region is getting buried in snow. We have some old timers back posting, some from other regions in here - it's a sign. Gas up the snowblowers and warm up the Moscow Mule copper mugs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 thermal boundary a bit better here in NE and further south evolution would protect our precious levels if this holds. Again I'm extrapolating, but hope one can see the small changes that can have a difference when this get to the coast. 700's for my point 6z nooner. That's a notable shift (and a good one IMO). Is it noise, or the start of something classic....stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 German house model sees it as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Milky sunshine here. Some high clouds but not covering the sun. But all blue to the West. Up to 35 now. Its going to be a beaut over here today. Maybe you need something at Lowes to come on over and feel it for a bit. Just stopped in the gc to look around Saw an immature eagle eating a squirrel in the middle of 18 fairway. Pretty cool 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Just stopped in the gc to look around Saw an immature eagle eating a squirrel in the middle of 18 fairway. Pretty cool Absolutely nothing cool about that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 IMO this is a good sign. 6z noonerHis is in better position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon crushes you pit to bradford peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, kerplunk said: Absolutely nothing cool about that! Not for the squirrel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, kerplunk said: Absolutely nothing cool about that! Yea, not something I am interested in seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 National low yesterday was -25 at Knowls Corner, Maine. I only mention because it's relatively rare for it to come from anywhere other than the high-elevation west, and when it does happen in the northeast it's typically Mt. Washington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Icon snow maps incoming, but fwiw, its a forum crowd pleaser. I'm scarily close to taint, but cause I'm a team player, I'd sign for it just as it presents. Old timers told us many moons ago, that for the best snows....ya gotta smell the rain... Verbatim , I'd be testing that theory IMBY....but I'd need help cause covid still has some of my smell and has yet to give it back. I'll be outta here for the big guns...but keep em pointed in the right direction gang..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Yea, not something I am interested in seeing. I was referring to it was cool seeing the eagle. Mother Nature is cruel. This was only a PG rating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Not for the squirrel Diehard Eagles fans loving it, though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 14 minutes ago, tim123 said: Icon crushes you pit to bradford peeps Its all snow for most here though turns to mixed in the SE for a bit. Low goes from S/E VA and retrogrades west a bit before ending up in N Nj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, kerplunk said: Diehard Eagles fans loving it, though Did the squirrel have an eye patch and oddly shapen sword? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I was referring to it was cool seeing the eagle. Mother Nature is cruel. This was only a PG rating Was only joking around. I have lots of closeup footage of hawks catching and eviscerating birds on my patio. Mother Nature rules. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, kerplunk said: Was only joking around. I have lots of closeup footage of hawks catching and eviscerating birds on my patio. Mother Nature rules. Never know, Maybe you have a PETA Sticker on your bumper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 12Z Icon snow and precip with the deform band obvious 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Never know, Maybe you have a PETA Sticker on your bumper Or a PETA member stuck to my bumper. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6Z Euro Ensemble 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, kerplunk said: Was only joking around. I have lots of closeup footage of hawks catching and eviscerating birds on my patio. Mother Nature rules. Yes she does and yeah, raptors being raptors. Anyone who owns a cat that goes outside...can share plenty of these kinds of stories. Our cat was best hunter I've ever known....bar none. He liked to share harvests on our porch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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