CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Yes, very cold temps leading in & a near perfect track…and then we could have 1996 all over again! One of the very unique aspects of the Jan '96 storm (as you already know) was that temperatures were in the single digits leading in to the start of the storm. It was 8 degrees around 10:00am on Sunday morning when the first flakes began. That is the only snow storm of my life to experience that (single digit temps) at the beginning of a huge event. The next coldest was February 2003 which had me 11 degrees when PD II began and remained in the teens for the entire storm. It stayed in the teens the whole time in '96 as well. I'm trying to remember how cold it was going in to January 2016's storm. That was the largest accumulation of my life at 35". I don't expect to see another one of them the remainder of my life. I'm sure someone here could look up the temps for the 2016 storm. I'm thinking low 20's but not teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Ok...just a few minutes ago I dropped below the coldest temp of all of last winter, 12.6 F and have now hit 12.4 degrees. My dewpoint is holding at 7.6 degrees. I think nearly everyone has a chance to see single-digit lows tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be shocked if I dropped to +5. I'll bet York, THV, gets down close to zero. We'll see in 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: One of the very unique aspects of the Jan '96 storm (as you already know) was that temperatures were in the single digits leading in to the start of the storm. It was 8 degrees around 10:00am on Sunday morning when the first flakes began. That is the only snow storm of my life to experience that (single digit temps) at the beginning of a huge event. The next coldest was February 2003 which had me 11 degrees when PD II began and remained in the teens for the entire storm. It stayed in the teens the whole time in '96 as well. I'm trying to remember how cold it was going in to January 2016's storm. That was the largest accumulation of my life at 35". I don't expect to see another one of them the remainder of my life. I'm sure someone here could look up the temps for the 2016 storm. I'm thinking low 20's but not teens. I only got 27” that storm. I remember the radar quite well with the heaviest deathband sitting right along 81. I think parts of wv panhandle had over 40” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: I only got 27” that storm. I remember the radar quite well with the heaviest deathband sitting right along 81. I think parts of wv panhandle had over 40” Haha. The "deathband" did not budge and stayed right over me for hours and only moved east very begrudgingly towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I topped out at 23 today. Currently at 15 with a DP of 3. Interesting days ahead it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Still 16 here. Think it will sit there or go down a degree but probably close to low for the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 @Itstrainingtime, 7 from the Tide enter the transfer portal a day after losing the title game? Funky. Like a jail break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam... because it's the 1st 0z to come out lol Look at all that cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam... because it's the 1st 0z to come out lol Is it closed off at 500? Asking because I am not looking on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nam... because it's the 1st 0z to come out lol Next is....say it.....say it.....the icon. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Down to 8 right now. See some observations down around 0 NE of me in Susquehanna County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Is it closed off at 500? Asking because I am not looking on my phone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Check out the upper dynamics 500 height and vertical velocity map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Check out the upper dynamics 500 height and vertical velocity map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 12 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Thanks. Not sure if I consider that a full close off despite that small area in the middle. Maybe someone who knows more than me could opine as usually a close off is a little more clean. Larger, more circular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Thanks. Not sure if I consider that a full close off despite that small area in the middle. Maybe someone who knows more than me could opine as usually a close off is a little more clean. Larger, more circular. It’s technically closed off as the height lines do form a (very) small circle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, AllWeather said: It’s technically closed off as the height lines do form a (very) small circle. Yea, that was my wonderment. Very small and very oblong. But thanks for the confirmation. Not sure what to make of it look less clean that 12z 84 which would be 72 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 48 minutes ago, AllWeather said: Look at all that cold air Great to see you back on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem Sprawling hp 84 hour There is an old weather saying …If you predict the High, you can predict the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon is a bomb Almost perfect h5 pass for central Pa. Maybe a smidge to far nw but who would argue given the result Had to look on this small screen but at least it was TT which is better for the phone. Did not seem to get the system any where near the gulf like the Op gfs if i saw it right. More TN valley and then maybe a jump to NC? Kind of screws the snow for the Carolina folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is a portion of DT’s write up this evening on his website: “Interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England should expect to see a major snowstorm. The probability is high of 6+ inches of snow WEST of Interstate 85 in North Carolina, and in southwest Virginia, all of the Shenandoah Valley, the eastern half of West Virginia, western and central Maryland, central and eastern Pennsylvania, interior southeast New York, and interior portions of New England. In fact, some of these areas have a pretty good chance of receiving 12 inches of snow.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Icon is a bomb Almost perfect h5 pass for central Pa. Maybe a smidge to far nw but who would argue given the result Here is the 0z ICON surface & snow. The low tracks to the Delaware Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Looks like GFS is still way inside (a tad more than 18z) with mix getting pretty deep into central and the 985 low coming right up the gut of C-PA. Still front end for all and significant central and esp western PA. Guess we’ll see where the rest of the 0z guidance and ensembles set up. Def suspect of that GFS track, I mean it’s possible but certainly not common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 GFS 0z still has an inland runner. Snow to mix for Susquehanna Valley with heavy snow for western half of PA. Lots of time for shifting into a better solution with the amount of cold & precip available for this event. Let’s see what the rest of 0z brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looks like GFS is still way inside (a tad more than 18z) with mix getting pretty deep into central and the 985 low coming right up the gut of C-PA. Still front end for all and significant central and esp western PA. Guess we’ll see where the rest of the 0z guidance and ops set up. Def suspect of that GFS track, I mean it’s possible but certainly not common. Low tracking right through happy valley. Not common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Looks like GFS is still way inside (a tad more than 18z) with mix getting pretty deep into central and the 985 low coming right up the gut of C-PA. Still front end for all and significant central and esp western PA. Guess we’ll see where the rest of the 0z guidance and ops set up. Def suspect of that GFS track, I mean it’s possible but certainly not common. I cannot recall that happening at all in the last 3-4 years. Plenty of app runners coming from the south west but this slp would be approaching PA from the south east in this scenario. Appears to be moving North by North West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Bub, we may need to snow chase to paw paw. down to 8 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Bub, we may need to snow chase to paw paw. down to 8 degrees If I get a low approaching the south and east, I am going to rely on the great valley to keep it frozen...not snow but not rain either. 15 here. It is much less cold than last night as to stepping out and how it feels. More moist. The Pittsburgh group may need to welcome us for a chase. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 The gfs still has the week of the 20th storm. Gem a more traditional Miller A inland runner this weekend with lots of potential to get a bit better. Good times for model tracking. Weird to say after yesterday's euro look so poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 0z Euro is east of the GFS but west of the Ukie. Major snowfall for areas west of the Susky, significant mixing issues east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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