Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 132 Only a few tracks inland like op. cluster are in a sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Only one like the op These member outputs are a good reminder to both not worry too much about inland but also not to broadcast that 2 feet is imminent. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: These member outputs are a good reminder to both not worry too much about inland but also not to broadcast that 2 feet is imminent. LOL. It’s a little embarrassing for the model to have the outlier compared to its ensembles. You would think just by law of avg, the op would blend somewhere in the middle of the ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 11, 2022 Author Share Posted January 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s a little embarrassing for the model to have the outlier compared to its ensembles. You would think just by law of avg, the op would blend somewhere in the middle of the ensembles I saw a note on the MA board from a met, that the GFS is upgraded from the GEFS. That does not explain differences in track as much as why it may be different. With that said, we have seen a lot of times where the OP was not at all the middle of the road solution with the ensembles. The OP is a higher resolution as well. That most know and is mentioned but thought I would add here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I saw a note on the MA board from a met, that the GFS is upgraded from the GEFS. That does not explain differences in track as much as why it may be different. With that said, we have seen a lot of times where the OP was not at all the middle of the road solution with the ensembles. The OP is a higher resolution as well. That most know and is mentioned but thought I would add here. It would be nice to run the ensembles with the same resolution to get more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 2 hours ago, JTrout said: Elliot from Millersville compared the potential to the Carolina Crusher from 2000. I added that snowmap for comparison. Maybe this one can be the Keystone Crusher! I’ll pass on the overall 99-00 Nina analog haha. It was cold but since 1980 it was the 4th least snowy winter at UNV (behind 11/12, 15/16, and 19/20). Unfortunately it has been pretty dry to this point snow wise while looking quite cold overall for the foreseeable future. I was only like 13 at the time but I do remember that winter having blocking but too far east and we missed out on some coastal storms being too far east or offshore. We get this potential storm that should turn that on it’s head. I can kind of see the similarity in the setup between the Jan 2000 surprise and this potential one but as it’s modeled at the moment I think this has a farther west 500mb alignment (western ridge), more amplified, and a much more established system coming across the country. The northern energy for 1/25/00 didn’t phase in until the coastal low was popped off the SC/GA coast. It then had to come right up the coast which was where modeling at the time was extremely late to the game picking up how close to the coast it will run. The lead up to this is different, having a pretty significant wave coming up across the country (that part has been consistently modeled the last several days). The big thing with the last pretty much model cycle or so has been the energy dropping in/behind this wave and allowing it to amplify and come up the coast. I think this has the potential to be a much more widespread storm then that one was. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 If I don’t get 2 feet of snow Monday I’m gonna be livid. I was promised in Facebook a historic snowcane is arriving here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 28 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I’ll pass on the overall 99-00 Nina analog haha. It was cold but since 1980 it was the 4th least snowy winter at UNV (behind 11/12, 15/16, and 19/20). Unfortunately it has been pretty dry to this point snow wise while looking quite cold overall for the foreseeable future. I was only like 13 at the time but I do remember that winter having blocking but too far east and we missed out on some coastal storms being too far east or offshore. We get this potential storm that should turn that on it’s head. I can kind of see the similarity in the setup between the Jan 2000 surprise and this potential one but as it’s modeled at the moment I think this has a farther west 500mb alignment (western ridge), more amplified, and a much more established system coming across the country. The northern energy for 1/25/00 didn’t phase in until the coastal low was popped off the SC/GA coast. It then had to come right up the coast which was where modeling at the time was extremely late to the game picking up how close to the coast it will run. The lead up to this is different, having a pretty significant wave coming up across the country (that part has been consistently modeled the last several days). The big thing with the last pretty much model cycle or so has been the energy dropping in/behind this wave and allowing it to amplify and come up the coast. I think this has the potential to be a much more widespread storm then that one was. I think this is a great point in the Jan 2000 surprised a lot of high population areas but in reality it much more limited in its runup and eventual areas it affected vs a March Superstorm '93 setup. Even the night before the Jan 2000 surprise storm, though weenies on #newx thought (knew) they had the storm pegged, models were limiting the potential issues down to NC. Accumulation from the Jan 25, 2000 surprise storm below. Note the quick cut off in the western half of PA. That storm is forever in the snow weenies hall of fame but without the Surprise component, its would not be at all considered on the level of a March '93. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/NJSnow-25Jan00.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Not sure this will mean anything to people here but I recently found out that one of the people that helped us "guide" the Jan 25, 2000 snow storm home, providing excellent analysis in model failures at that time , passed away 7 years ago. The storm was actually called the Scott Simard storm at that point (in the weather community). Scott was a fiery but brilliant weather tactician. He may have posted here (NE side) for a while under a pseudonym. Since this storm is being talked about so much, though it worth giving him a shout out. https://www.legacy.com/us/obituaries/wickedlocal-journalnewsind/name/scott-simard-obituary?id=9415810 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 44 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: It’s a little embarrassing for the model to have the outlier compared to its ensembles. You would think just by law of avg, the op would blend somewhere in the middle of the ensembles I’m not much of an expert of how the computer models work but I do know the individual ensemble members operate on set preconditions/parameters that slightly differ to generate a forecast that accounts for uncertainty, or as NOAA defines it, Quote The GEFS attempts to quantify the amount of uncertainty in a forecast by generating an ensemble of multiple forecasts, each minutely different, or perturbed, from the original observations. When considering the Euro control run, the control run of an ensemble is the “best estimate” of the initial state of the atmosphere. I know the meteograms on WeatherBell plot out a GFS control but I’m not sure if that’s factored the same as the Euro EPS. At any rate simply based on the above, given lead time and the amount of moving parts with this…not to mention that the feature that ultimately becomes the system isn’t on shore yet, I’m not surprised there’s a lot of differing solutions within the ensembles. I do think they took a significant step in seeing it vs the operational the last couple runs. Compared to the GEFS, the 12z Euro and EPS seemed more dialed in to each other and the control run looked similar to the swath the op had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 The major models all had a drastic change today with the storm chance Sunday/ Monday. We went from the Euro & GFS taking the storm to Bermuda yesterday to a perfect track blizzard today at 12z. We still have 5 days to go, but the overall pattern supports an east coast storm. The track will waffle back & forth the next few days. I like where we are sitting at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Eps 18z actually bumped east of 12z Yes, & the 18z EPS individual members show less tucked tracks than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Here is the rest of the 18z EPS Many options still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The major models all had a drastic change today with the storm chance Sunday/ Monday. We went from the Euro & GFS taking the storm to Bermuda yesterday to a perfect track blizzard today at 12z. We still have 5 days to go, but the overall pattern supports an east coast storm. The track will waffle back & forth the next few days. I like where we are sitting at this time. While I was perusing Facebook a few minutes ago, I saw a Mt Holly post about the cold, the upcoming moderation, and then they mentioned the Sunday/Monday event, so even they see the potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 9.3 here at the house right now so the first single digit night for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 34 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 14 currently 16 here. HRRR has the temps holding within a degree or two of this and unbelievable staying above freezing tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Pretty cold leading in. And this is the Mean surface temp for Saturday afternoon. That is classic for an extreme event. So rare to see that really happen recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: 16 here. HRRR has the temps holding within a degree or two of this. Down to 10 here. Coldest temp so far. Dew is 6 so I might sneak in the single digits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is classic for an extreme event. So rare to see that really happen recently. 96 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: If we can hold the general look till Thursday I think we are in for a dynamic far reaching system for sure . When the temps are in the low 30's in NC, prior to a Miller A (assuming best case), we are in for a fantastic situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Down to 10 here. Coldest temp so far. Dew is 6 so I might sneak in the single digits I was 3-4 lower than you last night so turn about time now. I doubt I get much lower tonight. I think I get over 50 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: I was 3-4 lower than you last night so turn about time now. I doubt I get much lower tonight. I think I get over 50 tomorrow. Windy here. I still 2-3 snow cover so I should radiate well tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: When the temps are in the low 30's in NC, prior to a Miller A (assuming best case), we are in for a fantastic situation. There are lots of players on the field. The final phasing or lack there of, will determine the final track & intensity. We are only 5 days out, but we are still 5 days out…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: 96 Not saying this current is 96 but how cold it’ was during that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: Not saying this current is 96 but how cold it’ was during that storm Lol…So I read this as you are saying to fully expect 96 amounts…got it…thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m at 15 in the inland heat capital of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: There are lots of players on the field. The final phasing or lack there of, will determine the final track & intensity. We are only 5 days out, but we are still 5 days out…. Your final sentence is good advice. My comment was, as usual, based on current modeling and not a forecast or opinion. Highs in the upper teens before a potential miller a is sweet to dream about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m at 15 in the inland heat capital of the region. HGR 20 MDT 22. Our official numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Your final sentence is good advice. My comment was, as usual, based on current modeling and not a forecast or opinion. Highs in the upper teens before a potential miller a is sweet to dream about. Yes, very cold temps leading in & a near perfect track…and then we could have 1996 all over again! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Amazed at the GFS sniffing two events out before the Euro. Props. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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