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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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31 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs..

Looking at soundings along the m/d line in Adam's, York, Carroll  it's really close to mostly snow . A few sleet panels for sure verbatim but I'd take the run in a heartbeat but I sure wouldn't be opposed to a 50 mile SLP shift east  :weenie:

Only concern is lack of HP up north.  Couple models have HP off east coast (1030ish).  If we can get that better placed, then the work BOOM comes to mind, and would likely wrap some cold in as well as strengthen the SLP and create quite a baroclinic zone....but thats me wishing more than anything.  

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3 minutes ago, canderson said:

I'm sick and tired of your attitude. Let's meet at the old fire tower on the hilltop somewhere NW of State College and settle this once and for all. 

Winner gets to become the mayor of Paw Paw.

Bald Eagle summit? I'll be there in 15 minutes lol

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12 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hey Matt....Good do see you.  Always a good sign when folks like you are stopping in.  You liking where were at?  Nooners came in pretty close for 144 hrs out.  

Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. 

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3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. 

Yeah, it is a bit outta range for Ops, but as you said, its all about the trends, and they've been good today.  I'm sure many can remember many a GFS op at range and being giddy, then to watch things go amuck...only for it to come back to something it saw 5-7 days prior.  Lets hope.

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8 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Love the ensembles coming around, but there has been SO MUCH SHIFTING in the short-term though of just our boring pattern for the next few days, so I follow the ensembles to see where the real trends lie. Being in the bullseye 140+ hours out though in this shifting pattern tends to lose confidence, so we'll see. Good to see a true Miller A though...it feels like it has been a while. 

Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period.  :P.

Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys....

Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit.

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2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah there was a little "debate" this morning about going from boring to boom in a rather short period.  :P.

Dont waste your time looking....just boys being boys....

Thankfully the nooners helped to fix things a bit.

Ha I saw. I lurk in the shadows a lot (and I bought a new phone since last year so just now signed in). 

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Okay, I’m interested now. Is this going to be another case of the GFS picking this back up first in the mid-range like the Jan 3rd event?

There’s a lot of moving parts to this, but we’re going to have the amplified pattern we need to pop one of these big time events. 

Using Euro here (and Madden voice if you wish), Parent shortwave(s) of this potential system arrive on the west coast (main one Washington and another higher up in BC by about H48, appearing to phase in to a very potent 500mb shortwave and rounding and dropping straight down toward the Gulf. 

57 HR

Hr57.thumb.png.33b4c7b1893a995c1f4eaa4c88d65dbe.png

 

99 HR

Hr99.thumb.png.d9c03933b17cb2d3c86d69bd4920fcbd.png

 

So a lot of the early phases of this are already within the short range (certainly in NAM range) as far as getting the parent shortwaves on shore to the point of this dropping down the plains toward the Gulf… and this has been modeled pretty solid getting a decent swath of precip to that point. So you’ll see in Hr 99 I marked a few other things and their eventual directions being modeled between then and the next map (Hr 126). As the parent 500mb shortwave slows and amplifies there’s another shortwave that comes in on the BC coast, while the closed 500 low (PV) over the far north of Canada lurks. Dashed line denotes positively tilted ridge axis. This is where it gets extremely important. These features HAVE to drop down behind and force this thing to round the bend, or else we’re sitting high and dry as this potent feature gets forced east and out under us. Today, the likes of the GFS and Euro are doing the former, so we’ll see if that trend continues. There’s big time potential on the table if it does. 

HR 126

Hr126.thumb.png.a8a742cb54a800cdb602dc2fa7814091.png

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18 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Okay, I’m interested now. Is this going to be another case of the GFS picking this back up first in the mid-range like the Jan 3rd event?

There’s a lot of moving parts to this, but we’re going to have the amplified pattern we need to pop one of these big time events. 

Using Euro here (and Madden voice if you wish), Parent shortwave(s) of this potential system arrive on the west coast (main one Washington and another higher up in BC by about H48, appearing to phase in to a very potent 500mb shortwave and rounding and dropping straight down toward the Gulf. 

57 HR

Hr57.thumb.png.33b4c7b1893a995c1f4eaa4c88d65dbe.png

 

99 HR

Hr99.thumb.png.d9c03933b17cb2d3c86d69bd4920fcbd.png

 

So a lot of the early phases of this are already within the short range (certainly in NAM range) as far as getting the parent shortwaves on shore to the point of this dropping down the plains toward the Gulf… and this has been modeled pretty solid getting a decent swath of precip to that point. So you’ll see in Hr 99 I marked a few other things and their eventual directions being modeled between then and the next map (Hr 126). As the parent 500mb shortwave slows and amplifies there’s another shortwave that comes in on the BC coast, while the closed 500 low (PV) over the far north of Canada lurks. Dashed line denotes positively tilted ridge axis. This is where it gets extremely important. These features HAVE to drop down behind and force this thing to round the bend, or else we’re sitting high and dry as this potent feature gets forced east and out under us. Today, the likes of the GFS and Euro are doing the former, so we’ll see if that trend continues. There’s big time potential on the table if it does. 

HR 126

Hr126.thumb.png.a8a742cb54a800cdb602dc2fa7814091.png

Nam at range looks very similar to euro if not even a little stronger with the phase of the northern shortwaves.  

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4 hours ago, canderson said:

I'm way behind on posts today and frankly incredibly confused. 

Only way to fix this is with a chocolate chip cookie for lunch. 

Late to the party (work and all) but screw that. I think a good old fashioned coal region Boilo is in order...

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