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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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Concerning with the sharp western cutoff of precipitation as modeled. I don’t think the low could track much closer to many of us and still stay frozen. Why so little once you get past maybe Altoona and west? If that track maximizes us staying frozen while still delivering little precipitation as you move west then some eastward shifts while staying colder would mean a lot less QPF for a lot of us.


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7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

I'd take any of the 3 . All are strong very dynamic systems.  Heavy snow to heavy sleet and possible thunder ...hell yezzz:D

Definitely a boon for interesting weather.  I am staying cautious this far out as to who I speak with but I expect the general public to be well read on it this next AM.  Grocery stores will start getting packed. And check this out...the guy at @sauss06 's work would look like a genius! 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

2PM and only 20 degrees here.  Impressive.   Saw a note from Tim, on the Pitt board, that resonated with me.  Imagine getting a 1-2 foot base of snow and a cold pattern does really set in as many models depict.   Real winter! 

Snow depth at PIT on the 12z GFS stays at a foot or more from the time of the storm until the end of the run. Would imagine MDT would be able to say the same with the EC storm.

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6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

2PM and only 20 degrees here.  Impressive.   Saw a note from Tim, on the Pitt board, that resonated with me.  Imagine getting a 1-2 foot base of snow and a cold pattern does really set in as many models depict.   Real winter! 

All very true, other than I'm at 23 right now. Right about where projected. 

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5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs..

Looking at soundings along the m/d line in Adam's, York, Carroll  it's really close to mostly snow . A few sleet panels for sure verbatim but I'd take the run in a heartbeat but I sure wouldn't be opposed to a 50 mile SLP shift east  :weenie:

I mean...if I could draw it up that benefited me the most, that's exactly what I'd want. I'll gladly take what I get. 

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44 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:
 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

between the Euro and the GFS....someones gettin the "wood" and lots of it...

FWIW most models are rather similar in evolution...so take that as a +.

ICON started nice and while didnt present a winner, is within the realm of options at this juncture.  All told, I was impressed w/ consensus for nooners.

Get the coffee ready, cause if this look holds, it might be a fun one to watch....even if I get jipped down here in LSV land.  It's happened before, but I'm pullin for all of us to enjoy.  

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54 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

Blizzard of 22

zoomed in for all to relish for a few hours....

verbatim...I'm toast and puddles of tears...but I know many iterations are likely to come, so I'll just enjoy the treands....and hope for a 25 mile jog east in the next 144 hrs.

 

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_ma.png

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3 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Well, damn. Glad I bought that new snow blower. 

Hope you all are doing well!

Hey Matt....Good do see you.  Always a good sign when folks like you are stopping in.  You liking where were at?  Nooners came in pretty close for 144 hrs out.  

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