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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Man, it is brutal out.  23 degrees and a wind chill around 7-8.  Yet, the snow left on my driveway from the blowing/drifting is still melting 

Disappointed in the staying power of last week's snowfall. Not surprised at the melting today, I've seen snow routinely melt in the sun once the temp gets to about 15. From there up, she'll melt some. Especially if it's not icy. 

I always chuckle when it's sunny and 30 and people say that the snow isn't going anywhere. 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Disappointed in the staying power of last week's snowfall. Not surprised at the melting today, I've seen snow routinely melt in the sun once the temp gets to about 15. From there up, she'll melt some. Especially if it's not icy. 

I always chuckle when it's sunny and 30 and people say that the snow isn't going anywhere. 

The snow would also still decrease some just from normal wind derived evap.   Just surprised to see liquid water running down my driveway when it is 23. 

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1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Eagles...I don't know what to think. They should be one and done but they're playing very well going into the playoffs. The thing I admire (and honestly am jealous of) is they can run the hell out of the ball. I feel like they're sort of built for the postseason and Tampa better be ready because Philly could take them out. 

Brady beats them by 14 easy. 

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22 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

SE forum is starting the December 2918 talk. (that storm dropped a couple of feet in the mountains of SW VA and NC)

I wonder what the weather forecast was back then (or in the future? LOL.)  Lots of people probably thought the word was coming to an end and it would never stop. 

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15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I wonder what the weather forecast was back then (or in the future? LOL.)  Lots of people probably thought the word was coming to an end and it would never stop. 

I was like...why is he responding to my post like this? LOL

How about...2018. :) (My wife was in Boone, NC during the storm and met Jim Cantore)

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Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

I was like...why is he responding to my post like this? LOL

How about...2018. :) (My wife was in Boone, NC during the storm and met Jim Cantore)

I actually thought you meant 1918 as that is the year of the extreme winter where the Mid South had lows in the -20's.   I did not look up any specific snows that winter though.  

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2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Euro looks super duper boring.

Hug the ensembles and remember that it will change in 6 hours.  :-).  But model breakdown wise, the Euro is a punt of the middle of winter for snow lovers.  Not only is it boring, there is no sign of anything at day 10.  The low shown in the south has no realistic path to move up. 

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Hug the ensembles and remember that it will change in 6 hours.  :-).  But model breakdown wise, the Euro is a punt of the middle of winter for snow lovers.  Not only is it boring, there is no sign of anything at day 10.  The low shown in the south has no realistic path to move up. 

That big ocean storm screwing things up.


.
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In my experience, we often get long range outlooks in winter that look super dry and boring, and usually the ground truth is quite a bit different.  What I am trying to say is I will take the cold and let the pattern develop.  If we have a cold pattern, the snow will come.  Maybe not a big storm, but we will get events.

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1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm too old now to figure out how old I'll be then. I just know that I'll be waiting for the Orioles to be relevant and for the Process to be completed then. 

And the Steelers might finally be on the verge of finding their next franchise QB after Ben.

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MU update:

As the Arctic high pressure system moves off to our east and a Clipper-like system tracks across southeastern Canada, more seasonably chilly air will return for Wednesday and Thursday. However, I see signs that the pattern may become increasingly more favorable for potential snow and wintry weather in the East between ~ January 15-25. A bulge northward in the Jet Stream across western North America may occur in conjunction with the return of Greenland blocking. By January 19 or 20, that blocking may very well become centered just to the south and west of Greenland -- a classic "west-based," negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As I've explained in previous discussions, this Jet Stream configuration is a "snow-lovers dream" and often present leading up to and during major winter storms in the mid-Atlantic. However, here's a word of caution. Even if this pattern does come to fruition, it doesn't guarantee that we'll receive a moderate or major snowstorm. I've seen several instances where snow has failed to occur in this favorable setup. The probability increases, but we're still just talking about a word that nobody has ever shoveled -- "potential."

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

MU update:

As the Arctic high pressure system moves off to our east and a Clipper-like system tracks across southeastern Canada, more seasonably chilly air will return for Wednesday and Thursday. However, I see signs that the pattern may become increasingly more favorable for potential snow and wintry weather in the East between ~ January 15-25. A bulge northward in the Jet Stream across western North America may occur in conjunction with the return of Greenland blocking. By January 19 or 20, that blocking may very well become centered just to the south and west of Greenland -- a classic "west-based," negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). As I've explained in previous discussions, this Jet Stream configuration is a "snow-lovers dream" and often present leading up to and during major winter storms in the mid-Atlantic. However, here's a word of caution. Even if this pattern does come to fruition, it doesn't guarantee that we'll receive a moderate or major snowstorm. I've seen several instances where snow has failed to occur in this favorable setup. The probability increases, but we're still just talking about a word that nobody has ever shoveled -- "potential."

He has a lot of the key weenie phrases down.  Re: Shoveling  potential.    He probably typed snow weenies dream in their first iteration of this update but an editor made him change it up. 

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

He has a lot of the key weenie phrases down.  Re: Shoveling  potential.    He probably typed snow weenies dream in their first iteration of this update but an editor made him change it up. 

Probably right.

I posted that just to remind all of us that while the pattern is really good, it's not a guarantee for anything. I think it was after the twin blizzards in Feb 2010 that the pattern thereafter was epic, and there was talk of more blizzards to follow. And while northeast of here got a good storm near the end of the month, that epic pattern produced very little here after Feb. 10th. 

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18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Probably right.

I posted that just to remind all of us that while the pattern is really good, it's not a guarantee for anything. I think it was after the twin blizzards in Feb 2010 that the pattern thereafter was epic, and there was talk of more blizzards to follow. And while northeast of here got a good storm near the end of the month, that epic pattern produced very little here after Feb. 10th. 

Anyone posting that we WILL get a lot of snow or something DEFINTELY is going to happen, probably needs your lesson :-). 

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