Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That is our mid month shot I think. GGEM looks interesting two days later but the flow is a big progressive and the trough-N/S Shortwave behind it does not seem to yell phase. Maybe I am not looking at it correctly. Euro is actually pretty moderate after Wed. I thought i saw some low 50's in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Euro is actually pretty moderate after Wed. I thought i saw some low 50's in there. CTP has me in the 40s already by later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: CTP has me in the 40s already by later next week. We will need it if the period Tim and Nut were speaking about comes to play out as being close to depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We will need it if the period Tim and Nut were speaking about comes to play out as being close to depicted. A little January thaw to verify that my AC is ready for February prior to the Polar Vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We will need it if the period Tim and Nut were speaking about comes to play out as being close to depicted. 12z GEFS still showed a deep blue on the 500 anomaly at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 There is a kiss of death for my polar vortex event, however: JB tweeted about it yesterday using the hour 378 map of the operational GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: 12z GEFS still showed a deep blue on the 500 anomaly at the end of its range. And Op was cold as well. Interesting to talk about but still not going to wish it on. Now, if it wants to get close enough to us that a developing Miller A pulls in cold air to give us a 100% cold storm for once, I am down with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 9 minutes ago, TimB84 said: There is a kiss of death for my polar vortex event, however: JB tweeted about it yesterday using the hour 378 map of the operational GFS. JB also punted Feb (temp wise) in some manner so he went out on more than one limb. But your point does bring up a point I am going to make. No one should be mocked for putting up a 300+ hour map on here when real met's are doing it as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: JB also punted Feb (temp wise) in some manner so. he went out on more than one limb. But your point does bring up a point I am going to make. No one should be mocked for putting up a 300+ hour map on here when real met's are doing it as well. At least on here, most are aware that the 300+ maps are relatively meaningless and simply for discussion/entertainment purposes. JB’s audience is presumably much wider and some would surely interpret a 378 hour map as a forecast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: At least on here, most are aware that the 300+ maps are relatively meaningless and simply for discussion/entertainment purposes. JB’s audience is presumably much wider and some would surely interpret a 378 hour map as a forecast. Oh, no doubt. But there are some that feel the need to poo poo others when they put up a LR map. We should almost have an FAQ that explains 300 maps (really 150 maps as well) are just for entertainment and discussion purposes so we can get all the scolding out of the way right there :-). I did not see the JB post but if it just pointed out the map, no biggie, if it said PV to crush North East, then its BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said: I sure think so! This is my pet peeve with snowfall accumulation forecasts - if we get .3" of rain instead of .5", only a weenie would know that. (and many of them who wouldn't, either) But .3" of QPF that falls as snow can look a lot different than .5". It's amounts, ratios, temps, time of day...there is so much. It all matters. But when a forecast HAS to be made, and it's for 2-5" and someone gets 6" or 7"...oh my, what a terrible forecast! Except it really wasn't. The models did well with the overall placement of the 2 heaviest axis of snow...one in the mountains to our SW, the other primarily to our NE. Parts of our area got into that first axis that might have been a bit of a surprise, but as far as trying to forecast amounts for that type of storm, the models and forecasters did their jobs. And well. Couldn't agree more. I make this same point to people all the time. "What!? We only got .2" of rain when they were forecasting .4"!?", said no one ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Oh, no doubt. But there are some that feel the need to poo poo others when they put up a LR map. We should almost have an FAQ that explains 300 maps (really 150 maps as well) are just for entertainment and discussion purposes so we can get all the scolding out of the way right there :-). I did not see the JB post but if it just pointed out the map, no biggie, if it said PV to crush North East, then its BS. I won’t post the tweet, it’s pretty loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Couldn't agree more. I make this same point to people all the time. "What!? We only got .2" of rain when they were forecasting .4"!?", said no one ever. It's right location of the "." right? We know that that .2 vs. .5, when talking 10-1 rations, means a lot. But to the average person a failure of 2.2 inches of snow looks much larger than .2" of qpf. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I won’t post the tweet, it’s pretty loaded. After his Cobra Kai header and the woman taking her top off to use as a mask, not much else he can say that is shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 42 minutes ago, canderson said: So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? Donald Sterling came out and called them the n-word and they went poof. Oh, you mean the weather one phenomenon.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: After his Cobra Kai header and the woman taking her top off to use as a mask, not much else he can say that is shocking. Wait, what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Donald Sterling came out and called them the n-word and they went poof. Oh, you mean the weather one phenomenon.... That is damn funny! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: Wait, what? Check out his Tweets. She was complying with mask mandates. PS, check out the words on that freezer! Seems associated with her. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 JB also punted Feb (temp wise) in some manner so he went out on more than one limb. But your point does bring up a point I am going to make. No one should be mocked for putting up a 300+ hour map on here when real met's are doing it as well. But JB is a clown. Used to have credibility. Doesn’t anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: After his Cobra Kai header and the woman taking her top off to use as a mask, not much else he can say that is shocking. Wait. Who did this? I thought Morton Downey, Jr., died years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, Atomixwx said: Wait. Who did this? I thought Morton Downey, Jr., died years ago. JB's twitter feed (for both items) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: After his Cobra Kai header and the woman taking her top off to use as a mask, not much else he can say that is shocking. Not shocking, just makes a political jab that I’d rather not gum up a wx thread with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 46 minutes ago, canderson said: So I have a question. Where did all the clippers go? I have truly wondered this. I feel like they’ve disappeared the last 5-10 years. Does this have something to do with climate change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 Just now, TimB84 said: Not shocking, just makes a political jab that I’d rather not gum up a wx thread with. No, was not making this political I was pointing out the type of material (the woman in underwear or a bathing suit) that is on his channel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Check out his Tweets. She was complying with mask mandates. PS, check out the words on that freezer! Seems associated with her. I found him on twitter but don't see it - just weather stuff and Eagles junk (sorry iggle fans). Wait, we're talking about @JohnBolaris right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: But JB is a clown. Used to have credibility. Doesn’t anymore. I disagree. Yes he's clown-ish, but the guy understands large scale patterns as well as anyone out there and his knowledge of historical storms is unmatched. Now, does he come from a place of bias and operate with an agenda at times? Of course, but so do most out there. The difference is JB is open about his. Perhaps too open haha. But I'll take someone like that any day over someone who attempts to appear impartial while harboring deep bias. Just my opinion, and to be clear I have no great affinity for the guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, canderson said: I found him on twitter but don't see it - just weather stuff and Eagles junk (sorry iggle fans) Its about 1/3 of the way down the page. A retweet. Jan 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Its about 1/3 of the way down the page. A retweet. Jan 6th. Oh I must have the wrong guy - the guy I have just has a snow tweet on the 6th. His bio says he's "Managing Partner/Co-Founder Black Label Luxury Real Estate / Keller Williams Company/ Douglas Elliman NYC / New Jersey Licensed/Specializing in Pro athletes" which sounds made up so what the hell do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I found him on twitter but don't see it - just weather stuff and Eagles junk (sorry iggle fans). Wait, we're talking about @JohnBolaris right? Joe Bastardi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: Joe Bastardi Ohhhhh, ok. Yeah I don't know weather people around here much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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