Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,608
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Vesuvius
    Newest Member
    Vesuvius
    Joined

Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

18 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

That is our mid month shot I think.  GGEM looks interesting two days later but the flow is a big progressive and the trough-N/S Shortwave behind it does not seem to yell phase.  Maybe I am not looking at it correctly. 

Euro is actually pretty moderate after Wed.  I thought i saw some low 50's in there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

12z GEFS still showed a deep blue on the 500 anomaly at the end of its range.

And Op was cold as well.  Interesting to talk about but still not going to wish it on.  Now, if it wants to get close enough to us that a developing Miller A pulls in cold air to give us a 100% cold storm for once, I am down with that.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

There is a kiss of death for my polar vortex event, however: JB tweeted about it yesterday using the hour 378 map of the operational GFS.

JB also punted Feb (temp wise) in some manner so he went out on more than one limb.  But your point does bring up a point I am going to make.  No one should be mocked for putting up a 300+ hour map on here when real met's are doing it as well. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

JB also punted Feb (temp wise) in some manner so.  he went out on more than one limb.  But your point does bring up a point I am going to make.  No one should be mocked for putting up a 300+ hour map on here when real met's are doing it as well. 

At least on here, most are aware that the 300+ maps are relatively meaningless and simply for discussion/entertainment purposes. JB’s audience is presumably much wider and some would surely interpret a 378 hour map as a forecast.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, TimB84 said:

At least on here, most are aware that the 300+ maps are relatively meaningless and simply for discussion/entertainment purposes. JB’s audience is presumably much wider and some would surely interpret a 378 hour map as a forecast.

Oh, no doubt.  But there are some that feel the need to poo poo others when they put up a LR map.  We should almost have an FAQ that explains 300 maps (really 150 maps as well) are just for entertainment and discussion purposes so we can get all the scolding out of the way right there :-).  I did not see the JB post but if it just pointed out the map, no biggie, if it said PV to crush North East, then its BS. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I sure think so! 

This is my pet peeve with snowfall accumulation forecasts - if we get .3" of rain instead of .5", only a weenie would know that. (and many of them who wouldn't, either) But .3" of QPF that falls as snow can look a lot different than .5". It's amounts, ratios, temps, time of day...there is so much. It all matters. But when a forecast HAS to be made, and it's for 2-5" and someone gets 6" or 7"...oh my, what a terrible forecast! Except it really wasn't.

The models did well with the overall placement of the 2 heaviest axis of snow...one in the mountains to our SW, the other primarily to our NE. Parts of our area got into that first axis that might have been a bit of a surprise, but as far as trying to forecast amounts for that type of storm, the models and forecasters did their jobs. And well. 

Couldn't agree more.  I make this same point to people all the time.  "What!?  We only got .2" of rain when they were forecasting .4"!?", said no one ever.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Oh, no doubt.  But there are some that feel the need to poo poo others when they put up a LR map.  We should almost have an FAQ that explains 300 maps (really 150 maps as well) are just for entertainment and discussion purposes so we can get all the scolding out of the way right there :-).  I did not see the JB post but if it just pointed out the map, no biggie, if it said PV to crush North East, then its BS. 

I won’t post the tweet, it’s pretty loaded.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Couldn't agree more.  I make this same point to people all the time.  "What!?  We only got .2" of rain when they were forecasting .4"!?", said no one ever.

It's right location of the "." right?  We know that that .2 vs. .5, when talking 10-1 rations, means a lot.  But to the average person a failure of 2.2 inches of snow looks much larger than .2" of qpf. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Check out his Tweets.  She was complying with mask mandates.   PS, check out the words on that freezer!  Seems associated with her. 

I found him on twitter but don't see it - just weather stuff and Eagles junk (sorry iggle fans). Wait, we're talking about @JohnBolaris right?

 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, anotherman said:


But JB is a clown. Used to have credibility. Doesn’t anymore.

I disagree.  Yes he's clown-ish, but the guy understands large scale patterns as well as anyone out there and his knowledge of historical storms is unmatched.  Now, does he come from a place of bias and operate with an agenda at times?  Of course, but so do most out there.  The difference is JB is open about his.  Perhaps too open haha.  But I'll take someone like that any day over someone who attempts to appear impartial while harboring deep bias.  Just my opinion, and to be clear I have no great affinity for the guy.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Its about 1/3 of the way down the page.  A retweet.  Jan 6th. 

Oh I must have the wrong guy - the guy I have just has a snow tweet on the 6th. 

His bio says he's "Managing Partner/Co-Founder Black Label Luxury Real Estate / Keller Williams Company/ Douglas Elliman NYC / New Jersey Licensed/Specializing in Pro athletes" which sounds made up so what the hell do I know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...