canderson Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 The GFS is either epically right or epically wrong. It’s on an island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs not caving Where do I sign? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Here is the 0z GFS Kuchera map 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Go Blue! 42 to 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Psu played Michigan better than anyone but MSU(PSU didn’t get handed every call like MSU either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 So is it going to be a miss in Pa. Wednesday from the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So is it going to be a miss in Pa. Wednesday from the storm? No, it's more like a Glancing blow, there is snow still expected for Pennsylvania, but not as much compared to New York & Massachusetts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So is it going to be a miss in Pa. Wednesday from the storm? Weenie rule number 16. If in the AM the only recent post is about football teams in the Midwest, the model dissection need not be too long. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Weenie rule number 16. If in the AM the only recent post is about football teams in the Midwest, the model dissection need not be too long. Indeed i'm a weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 26 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: So is it going to be a miss in Pa. Wednesday from the storm? The 6z GFS is still on board for good Wednesday snow for CTP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Weenie rule number 16. If in the AM the only recent post is about football teams in the Midwest, the model dissection need not be too long. It’s slipping away, unless one believes the GFS. I’m hesitant to buy what the Euro is trying to sell me for next weekend, because the general pattern just doesn’t seem conducive to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 6z GFS is still on board for good Wednesday snow for CTP. That the only model that has that amount of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: That the only model that has that amount of snow? In short, yes. And it’s a downgrade from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CTP has this for Harrisburg Tuesday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Snow likely before 1pm, then rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 CTP has this in their Hazardous Weather Outlook: A period of snow or wintry mix is possible late Tuesday night through late Wednesday from a potential storm system. There is still plenty of uncertainty with the track and strength of this system so details in timing, precipitation type and the amount of precipitation will change over the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, TimB84 said: In short, yes. And it’s a downgrade from 0z. Not really… the GFS has been steady with its solution for CTP for the last 3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Here is more from CTP this morning. After a cold but mainly dry day Tuesday, eyes will turn their focus on a potential winter storm that will arrive from the Southern Appalachians and Ohio Valley for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I love when CTP starts talking like this…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Here are CTP’s full thoughts this morning from their discussion: Focus then shifts to a southern stream shortwave and weak area of low pressure lifting into the Mid Atlantic Tuesday night into Wednesday. Uncertainty remains with regard to exact track of this system. However, ensemble plumes currently point toward a light precipitation event for most of central Pa and perhaps moderate over southeast Pa if phasing of southern and northern branches of jet stream occurs soon enough to deepen surface low before exiting the Mid Atlantic coast. Ensemble mean qpf is currently only between 0.1 and 0.25 inches, but several members are significantly wetter over the southeast half of Pa. A blocking high over northern New England should help hold in cold air and latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 I like the last line… “latest guidance indicates snow as the main ptype.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Well I read it all yesterday and this morning where does Palmyra stand LOL and thanks to those that remembered me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just now, paweather said: Well I read it all yesterday and this morning where does Palmyra stand LOL and thanks to those that remembered me! Keep the mower handy just in case. On the plus side the Nam did greatly expand the precip shield from 0Z to 6Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Keep the mower handy just in case. On the plus side the Nam did greatly expand the precip shield from 0Z to 6Z. Will do! Thanks for the update. I expect 1-10 inches. That is what I read. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Will do! Thanks for the update. I expect 0 1-10 inches. That is what I read. LOL LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 said something about this the other day, and think that this is largely why we have a storm to chat about. Well timed dip, but instead of a scoop, we may need shovels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 1:07 PM, Ahoff said: Very rare only 4 ever storms over 20", vs the many further east. 6" is a big storm here, but I doubt that's what we're looking at here in Pittsburgh. I think you rattled the cage of the snow miser. Not 20" but..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I think you rattled the cage of the snow miser. Not 20" but..... I do what I can, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 5, 2021 Author Share Posted December 5, 2021 Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 "Right. Which brings me to my next point: Don't smoke crack." - Lawrence Taylor 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Our friend @MillvilleWx has a good post on the MA thread about why the GFS is on its own with this system. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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