Santa Clause Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 From the semi but not totally useless department, today is the latest sunrise around these parts. And to really wow your friends, today is also coincidentally Earth's closest orbital distance to the sun. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: 6z Gfs is nicely improved. It has a bit stronger SLP well south of us on the central NC /Va border by 2 mb compared to 0z ...so it consolidates precip a bit sooner . Gfs has shifted nicely since yesterday's 12z run when it was progressive and flat nothing lol. Decent run. 6z GFS is a very nice run for all of us. It has a CTP wide 3 to 6 inch snow event on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 The 6z GEFS is on board as well for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6Z Euro looks like it wants no part of this..Edit: Actually better than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 10 minutes ago, Superstorm said: 6Z Euro looks like it wants no part of this. . Edit: Actually better than 0Z. Interestingly enough, the 6Z Nam looks a LOT like the Monday 0Z Euro which showed the Miller B like event. Low up into SW PA then transferred to the NJ Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 17 this morning under mainly clear skies. All we need now is a white landscape... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Yea. 6z Euro a bit deeper at h5 and a bit sharper . Surface is a baby step better. On to 12z . See u guys later this afternoon Here is a view of the 6z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 17 this morning under mainly clear skies. All we need now is a white landscape... 18 in Marysville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Very good agreement on the GFS, Icon, CMC/Rgem for a more traditional quick hitter that runs under us before emerging into the Atlantic near VA Beach. Little to no Miller B issues. I would be happy with a 3-6" fall if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Very good agreement on the GFS, Icon, CMC/Rgem for a more traditional quick hitter that runs under us before emerging into the Atlantic near VA Beach. Little to no Miller B issues. I would be happy with a 3-6" fall if that happened. Yep me too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Looks like a need to stay Thursday night 12hr worth of snow from 7pm to 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Don’t know. I’m getting Miller B vibes on this one.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 18 in Marysville 15 here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This is stinking nice UGH Cities in Alabama, Tennessee have received more snow than New York City this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Don’t know. I’m getting Miller B vibes on this one. . That worries me since this is called the Superstorm storm. I can't see the 6Z Euro but the 0Z seems to be a transfer like the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That worries me since this is called the Superstorm storm. I can' see the 6Z Euro but the 0Z seems to be a transfer like the Nam. Not a lot of moisture the work with. We need to north trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: Not a lot of moisture the work with. We need to north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 11 hours ago, pasnownut said: New Wood stove is getting its first real workout. Nothing like wood heat on a cold morning. 11 degrees here this morning. weather app calling for 3-6” Thursday/Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS has a heavier swath just to the south. Need to see that trend over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 Just now, Cashtown_Coop said: GFS has a heavier swath just to the south. Need to see that trend over us Yea, that is definitely the safer resolution for us here. Singular (or close to it) system that moves under us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 31 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Don’t know. I’m getting Miller B vibes on this one. . Understood - even if it's not a Miller B, the modeled precip shield takes on a Miller B appearance on a lot of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 This is coming north so I like where it is now.Unfortunately if it comes too far north, and you add in a Miller B transfer, the outcome for snow lovers will not be good.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Millersville's take: In the short term, I'm keeping a close eye on Thursday night/Friday as our best chance of receiving a meaningful, widespread snowfall. However, the disturbance of interest is still hundreds of miles off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, so taking a shot at predicting potential snowfall totals at this distance is a fool's errand! In fact, there's still a chance that we receive nothing more than a few flurries. The good news is that we likely won't have to deal with precipitation-type issues, so anything that does occur will be in the form of snow. At this point, my biggest concern is that the disturbance remains so weak and strung out that any meaningful snow stays to our south or doesn't even develop until it's "too late in the game" for the mid-Atlantic. What we do have going for us this time is that the ridge axis in the West is located very close to Boise, Idaho.. an ideal location for snowfall in southeastern PA. If you want several inches or more of snow, then you want the ridge axis to be stronger and more amplified than what's currently projected. In general, a more amplified ridge results in disturbances over the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic intensifying more rapidly. These disturbances also tend to "dig" more, allowing them to draw Gulf- and Atlantic-moisture northward into the colder air. Even if this does occur on Thursday night and Friday morning, the system will be moving along so quickly that anything more than a light-to-moderate snowfall is highly unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 14 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, that is definitely the safer resolution for us here. Singular (or close to it) system that moves under us. Right...under us, but close enough that it gets us. If it digs too much and goes well south, there's nothing that will bring it back up until it's out over the Atlantic. I'd think a track across central VA would be ideal for the LSV at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Nam coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 17 minutes ago, pawatch said: Nothing like wood heat on a cold morning. 11 degrees here this morning. weather app calling for 3-6” Thursday/Friday Heated exclusively with wood for over a decade in a large log home with 3 wood stoves in the Montrose area. While I agree there’s nothing like wood heat on a cold morning and I do miss that, I don’t miss all the work of cutting, splitting, hauling, etc. - not to mention the dirt, chimney maintenance, etc. But I still get nostalgic when I walk outside and smell woodsmoke in the neighborhood. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 4, 2022 Author Share Posted January 4, 2022 1 minute ago, kerplunk said: Heated exclusively with wood for over a decade in a large log home with 3 wood stoves in the Montrose area. While I agree there’s nothing like wood heat on a cold morning and I do miss that, I don’t miss all the work of cutting, splitting, hauling, etc. - not to mention the dirt, chimney maintenance, etc. But I still get nostalgic when I walk outside and smell woodsmoke in the neighborhood. The thing that would bother me most is making sure the heat is sufficient all night. Having to get up to throw in a log would be a hassle. #firstworldproblems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 Thursday Night Snow, mainly after 9pm. Low around 21. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Friday Snow likely before 8am, then a chance of snow showers between 8am and 9am. Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. CTP already throwing out numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerplunk Posted January 4, 2022 Share Posted January 4, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The thing that would bother me most is making sure the heat is sufficient all night. Having to get up to throw in a log would be a hassle. #firstworldproblems Had very efficient stoves and rarely had to do that. That said, we did once live in a place where a jar of water would freeeze if left on the floor overnight, and we’d heat up stones on the stove, wrap them in towels and put them in the bottom of the bed for the night. That and long underwear along with ski hats made it downright cozy. Haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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