pasnownut Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 10:46 PM, MAG5035 said: Haha that partial post above the post with the snow map… I see two trends in that screen capture lol. Expand that second one made me do a double take before I giggled out loud... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 10:52 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: The latest SREF is a step back from the run earlier today, but it still gets Advisory snow to the LSV tomorrow. Expand 3" for northern LSV. Not sure that happens but still a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 The more I see the more SE Lancaster and York look like the plows are going to be needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:05 PM, pasnownut said: While technically correct....12z was far from inspiring....and to me....the word poof came to mind. Glad 18z took a shot of vodka and straightened out a bit. I could stare at the loop of the 12z CMC for a long time before i get bored of looking at it. Thats how to run a snowstorm round these parts... Expand The Euro, Canadian & the ensembles have had the Friday storm most runs the last few days, while the GFS has been bouncing around. I also enjoyed the 12z Canadian today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 8:55 PM, Bubbler86 said: The DP, on the Nam, goes from the mid 20's at midnight to the mid teens mid Monday morning...near the M/D line. Not a recipe for snow when the 2M temps are in the upper 20s mid morning. Expand Saw this post earlier but just now getting a chance to post - this is a great observation. Certainly don't want THAT dry of air and wishing for snow to be falling. Give me 28/25, not 28/15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I like seeing this for Thursday night for the Harrisburg area. Thursday Night Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I don't know what to think for tomorrow and I'm sure as h*ll glad I'm not forecasting this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (5/5) What does this mean for us? Systems like this are notorious for having a tight snowfall gradient. 50 miles can separate a coating from double-digit totals. Accumulating snow is unlikely north of the Mason-Dixon line, with the highest totals just S/E of I-95. #MdWx #vawx 20m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (4/5) Lastly, snowfall is often heaviest where difluence is greatest in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. In the image below, this is indicated by the solid, black lines (geopotential height contours) spreading apart from one another in the outlined area. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (3/5) This one's a bit technical, but the highest snowfall totals and best rates usually occur along and just north of the strongest mid-level frontogenesis/warm air advection (two more indicators of rising motion and precip). This is often where the "deformation band" sets up. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (2/5) In the sounding just southeast of the I-95 corridor, the dry layer isn't present, meaning that snow's actually reaching the ground. Now, in the sounding below, strong upward motion co-located with the Dendritic Growth Zone (DGZ) is a great indicator of high snowfall rates.. 21m MU Weather Center@MUweather (1/5) Here's why it can be very misleading to look only at snowfall/precipitation output from models. A dry layer of air in the mid- and low-levels on the sounding near the Mason-Dixon line means that snowfall likely won't reach the ground (virga) despite the model suggesting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:45 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Saw this post earlier but just now getting a chance to post - this is a great observation. Certainly don't want THAT dry of air and wishing for snow to be falling. Give me 28/25, not 28/15. Expand Or if 28/15, a beast charging up from the gulf vs. The weak low we have right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Sorry for the convoluted post above, it's a series of 5 posts on why MU believes there will be NO snow accumulation north of the M/D line tomorrow. (start at the bottom post and read up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:50 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Sorry for the convoluted post above, it's a series of 5 posts on why MU believes there will be NO snow accumulation north of the M/D line tomorrow. (start at the bottom post and read up) Expand It’s very well possible but I’d have to believe someone in York Lancaster or Adams reports at least 1” tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 2, 2022 Author Share Posted January 2, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:50 PM, Itstrainingtime said: Sorry for the convoluted post above, it's a series of 5 posts on why MU believes there will be NO snow accumulation north of the M/D line tomorrow. (start at the bottom post and read up) Expand It's good stuff and spot on based on the current models. We have a low sitting off VA Beach and no snow in our hoods....dry air is the answer I would think. In combo with the weak push from the low. Low gets above VA Beach and LSV is in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 Disappointing seeing the Rap sort of gravitating south a bit. It's reality but was hoping for a crazy finish to this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:58 PM, losetoa6 said: I'll take any positive shift in ANY model including the Sref ( ARWs) Shifted about 30 miles north . Time for nowcasting though . Expand The Sref ARW gives me 7". LOL. I will be gone for the next 60 min getting my plow connected. LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 18Z Euro cuts back most of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:57 PM, Bubbler86 said: It's good stuff and spot on based on the current models. We have a low sitting off VA Beach and no snow in our hoods....dry air is the answer I would think. In combo with the weak push from the low. Low gets above VA Beach and LSV is in play. Expand Yea dry air is definitely an inhibitor in this boundary type setup with the cold pressing. Otherwise if the low does in fact track to VA Beach like the GFS especially has suggested, that still is typically an okay track for the southern half of the area (Delmarva is ideal for C-PA). I feel some accumulating snow would find a way just across the M/D if it did that. A lot of the short/near term guidance take the low pressure off at the OBX, which probably would result in accumulating staying below the M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:25 AM, MAG5035 said: Yea dry air is definitely an inhibitor in this boundary type setup with the cold pressing. Otherwise if the low does in fact track to VA Beach like the GFS especially has suggested, that still is typically an okay track for the southern half of the area (Delmarva is ideal for C-PA). I feel some accumulating snow would find a way just across the M/D if it did that. A lot of the short/near term guidance take the low pressure off at the OBX, which probably would result in accumulating staying below the M/D line. Expand Yea, this forum is basically down to GFS or bust when it comes to model watching. The RAP and other lesser used short term models still show "decent" snow in far S/E LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Still seeing the northerly shift in the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 Me thinks a lot of people in our neck of the woods are in for quite the virga storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:43 AM, losetoa6 said: Mesoanalysis past hour 500s Expand Coming our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:35 AM, paweather said: Still seeing the northerly shift in the radar Expand Yes, time for nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:43 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said: Me thinks a lot of people in our neck of the woods are in for quite the virga storm. Expand Here is your panel. A monster were it not for the Dp's/Dry Air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:43 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said: Me thinks a lot of people in our neck of the woods are in for quite the virga storm. Expand Yep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:50 AM, Cashtown_Coop said: Yes, time for nowcasting. Expand Right now the Nam shows nothing for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:51 AM, losetoa6 said: Once she goes negative tilt Let the snow forts be built Expand We may need Mimes for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/2/2022 at 11:17 PM, Blizzard of 93 said: The Euro, Canadian & the ensembles have had the Friday storm most runs the last few days, while the GFS has been bouncing around. I also enjoyed the 12z Canadian today. Expand Comment was regarding nooner gfs op, as it raised Pa’s eyebrow as it went poof. Wasn’t referring to others 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 40/34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 12:43 AM, Mount Joy Snowman said: Me thinks a lot of people in our neck of the woods are in for quite the virga storm. Expand Me thinks all peeps in our neck of the woods north of 30 know they’ve been largely out if it. Sure many want a pleasant surprise, but odds have been against. Like I suggested earlier if I get 1-2” I’d be giddy as while that’s a stretch, it’s not too far fetched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 1:11 AM, losetoa6 said: Hrrr has slowly been edging northwest with the precip field and north with the low position. Expand Yep, was just going to post. Low position slightly north and west and shield north (just slightly). Not a big difference (well maybe for you) all together but interesting model follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 3, 2022 Author Share Posted January 3, 2022 HRRR has the 3-4" line into Lanco at 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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