Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[CarlislePaWx]

Hi All.  Wishing everyone a safe, happy, and healthy New Year.  Each NYE I think about the weather extremes I've experienced on this day/night.  Tonight, with a current temp of 50 degrees is certainly in the upper range of temps going into midnight.  I'm sure there have been higher readings well into the 50's but I can't remember them now.  At the other end of the scale are definitely some frigid evenings with temps in the teens down to 10 above.  One year in the past 10 had that frigid temp in Times Square at midnight.

For those other numbers persons out there I thought I would share a few statistics from my station.  This month which is about to end is the driest month in years and could possibly go back to 1989 that had such a frigid December that it was incredibly dry with only 0.63" of liquid for the month.  December 2021 is going out with an incredibly dry 1.06" which includes the 0.40" of melted snow from earlier in the week when I measured 1.9" of snow.  Last month, November, was the second driest month of this year with just 1.88".  My annual precipitation total ends with 42.25" which is pretty close to the average.  Despite the final two months of this year having less than 2" for the month, I recorded 4" or more for 4 months out of the 12 which were February, July, August, and September.  We all know how wet September was.  I recorded 9.31" that month.  So 2021 has seen some pretty wild swings in monthly precip totals.  I wonder how wild things will be in 2022?  I'll throw one last statistic in to this report which were my lowest and highest temps for the year.  The lowest was 12.6 degrees (no single digit lows) and the highest was 98.1.

[Bubbler86]

50 to bring in the new year here.  49 at Mdt.

[Voyager]

The most impressive weather stat for my backyard in 2021?

A heat index of 109.1 degrees on August 11th at 3:30pm.

[mahantango#1]

7 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hi All.  Wishing everyone a safe, happy, and healthy New Year.  Each NYE I think about the weather extremes I've experienced on this day/night.  Tonight, with a current temp of 50 degrees is certainly in the upper range of temps going into midnight.  I'm sure there have been higher readings well into the 50's but I can't remember them now.  At the other end of the scale are definitely some frigid evenings with temps in the teens down to 10 above.  One year in the past 10 had that frigid temp in Times Square at midnight.

For those other numbers persons out there I thought I would share a few statistics from my station.  This month which is about to end is the driest month in years and could possibly go back to 1989 that had such a frigid December that it was incredibly dry with only 0.63" of liquid for the month.  December 2021 is going out with an incredibly dry 1.06" which includes the 0.40" of melted snow from earlier in the week when I measured 1.9" of snow.  Last month, November, was the second driest month of this year with just 1.88".  My annual precipitation total ends with 42.25" which is pretty close to the average.  Despite the final two months of this year having less than 2" for the month, I recorded 4" or more for 4 months out of the 12 which were February, July, August, and September.  We all know how wet September was.  I recorded 9.31" that month.  So 2021 has seen some pretty wild swings in monthly precip totals.  I wonder how wild things will be in 2022?  I'll throw one last statistic in to this report which were my lowest and highest temps for the year.  The lowest was 12.6 degrees (no single digit lows) and the highest was 98.1.

55 inches of rain here a lot came down in July and august with those torrential downpours with those thunderstorms. It seemed like that those thunderstorms with that heavy rain always found our area here. a few of them we had an inch in 20 min. I hope the new year features less torrential downpours.

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

55 inches of rain here a lot came down in July and august with those torrential downpours with those thunderstorms. It seemed like that those thunderstorms with that heavy rain always found our area here. a few of them we had an inch in 20 min. I hope the new year features less torrential downpours.

I remember watching your area with envy! 

[Bubbler86]

6Z GFS pretty much on its own here but shows accumulating snows in the Southern and Eastern LSV for tomorrow night/Monday AM.  Also surprised no one posted about the 1/7 system.  Both the EC and GFS just a tad too far WEst with the storm track, for the LSV, but gets most areas North and West of the LSV.

 

1/3                                                                                                                           1/7

 

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS pretty much on its own here but shows accumulating snows in the Southern and Eastern LSV for tomorrow night/Monday AM.  Also surprised no one posted about the 1/7 system/  Both the EC and GFS just a tad too far WEst with the storm track, for the LSV, but gets most areas North and West of the LSV.

 

1/3                                                                                                                           1/7

 

Just looked at 6z's and gotta say it is pretty crazy to see the NAM/GFS so far apart for a system well into short range.  A page back you/trainer were chatting about it and yeah, one of em is gonna get schooled.  

another tidbit to offer is that the GFS has progressively backed W w/ precip shield and SLP, so it was nice to see a "typical" model bias from the past.  Not saying it means much at the end of the day, but just pointing out something I've been watching wrt this storm.

[mahantango#1]

29 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I remember watching your area with envy! 

You can have it this year. What made it bad was my son was having his land excavated with a dozer at the time. And that sits on a hill. And there was no grass planted yet, so you can imagine what happened. I had to get the tractor out with the front end loader to clean off the ground and mud off our lane at several spots. It was terrible and disgusting. So when they were calling for thunderstorms we cringed at that thought of going through it again.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

You can have it this year. What made it bad was my son was having his land excavated with a dozer at the time. And that sits on a hill. And there was no grass planted yet, so you can imagine what happened. I had to get the tractor out with the front end loader to clean off the ground and mud off our lane at several spots. It was terrible and disgusting. So when they were calling for thunderstorms we cringed at that thought of going through it again.

Yea, too much of a "good" thing.  Bad timing for you.  

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

55 inches of rain here a lot came down in July and august with those torrential downpours with those thunderstorms. It seemed like that those thunderstorms with that heavy rain always found our area here. a few of them we had an inch in 20 min. I hope the new year features less torrential downpours.

I remember that as well. First the wind damage from the storm around Berrysburg, and then the area from E-ville up to Herndon being so green while everywhere else in my travels was starting to turn drought dormant/dead. Running up 225 for a time felt like being the Pacific Northwest or the emerald green of Ireland.

[Bubbler86]

Up until now the GFS had little support but the HRRR just gave it a bit.   Not to the Northern Extent of the GFS but a more widespread snow event for some. 

 

[Voyager]

OK folks, here are my 2021 numbers from when I got my new weather station on May 9th. I won't include anything from the old station except for rainfall, because that was the only sensor that still worked correctly when it was replaced.

• Daily High: 97.0F
• Daily Low: 17.4F
• High Index: 109.1F
• Low Index: 17.4F
• High DP: 81.9F
• Low DP: 11.6F
• Highest Pressure: 30.64inHg
• Lowest Pressure: 29.21inHg
• Max Gust: 19.5mph
• Hourly Rain: 3.54"
• Daily Rain: 5.78"
• Yearly Rain: 43.94"

 

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS for 1/7 just needs a slight eastward adjustment to get Warning level snow for everyone. This run was good for all but the far southern tier, but they still get a few inches of snow this run.

 

[TimB]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

6Z GFS pretty much on its own here but shows accumulating snows in the Southern and Eastern LSV for tomorrow night/Monday AM.  Also surprised no one posted about the 1/7 system.  Both the EC and GFS just a tad too far WEst with the storm track, for the LSV, but gets most areas North and West of the LSV.                                                                                                               

 

 

I’ll admit that I was a bit tipsy when I looked at the models last night, but didn’t the 0z GFS and CMC suppress the 1/7 system? I remember being glad I stayed up for the Euro and I’m glad to see it’s back on the GFS.

[Bubbler86]

Just now, TimB84 said:

I’ll admit that I was a bit tipsy when I looked at the models last night, but didn’t the 0z GFS and CMC suppress the 1/7 system? I remember being glad I stayed up for the Euro and I’m glad to see it’s back on the GFS.

The Oz GFS was not good for the 1/7 system but forget why.  For this far out, the 6Z GFS and 0Z EC both look remarkably similar over us both at the surface and 500MB/Jet Stream.  GFS is just slightly more progressive. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

The Oz GFS was not good for the 1/7 system but forget why.  For this far out, the 6Z GFS and 0Z EC both look remarkably similar over us both at the surface and 500MB/Jet Stream.  GFS is just slightly more progressive. 

Yeah, I wasn’t buying the scenario the 0z GFS spit out.

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Yeah, I wasn’t buying the scenario the 0z GFS spit out.

I am pretty interested in what plays out over the next 36 hours.  The latest Nam, though veering a bit toward having a definable storm in the South East, is still so far off from the GFS depiction that it's a bit shocking.   Precip field is multiple hundreds of miles apart between the two. 

[TimB]

5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I am pretty interested in what plays out over the next 36 hours.  The latest Nam, though veering a bit toward having a definable storm in the South East, is still so far off from the GFS depiction that it's a bit shocking.   Precip field is multiple hundreds of miles apart between the two. 

It looks like it could get interesting (not for me, but definitely for southern areas of C PA) and probably has an effect on how the rest of the week plays out. Can’t imagine models will come into agreement on the later system until the earlier system does what it does.

[Bubbler86]

1 minute ago, TimB84 said:

It looks like it could get interesting (not for me, but definitely for southern areas of C PA) and probably has an effect on how the rest of the week plays out. Can’t imagine models will come into agreement on the later system until the earlier system does what it does.

The GFS does have that accumulating snow but it is on its own...cannot find anything else that supports it.  The closest is the long range HWRF but its not really that supportive. 

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

It looks like it could get interesting (not for me, but definitely for southern areas of C PA) and probably has an effect on how the rest of the week plays out. Can’t imagine models will come into agreement on the later system until the earlier system does what it does.

NAM is now backing W like GFS as I shared earlier.  See below. Problem is that it slides right and gains little latitude.  Positiive takeaway is that it is coming around to the event, even if evolution differs from GFS.  Again, not saying it hits LSV, but trends are now starting to make one keep both eyes if you live S or E in PA

 

[WmsptWx]

58 minutes ago, Voyager said:

OK folks, here are my 2021 numbers from when I got my new weather station on May 9th. I won't include anything from the old station except for rainfall, because that was the only sensor that still worked correctly when it was replaced.

• Daily High: 97.0F
• Daily Low: 17.4F
• High Index: 109.1F
• Low Index: 17.4F
• High DP: 81.9F
• Low DP: 11.6F
• Highest Pressure: 30.64inHg
• Lowest Pressure: 29.21inHg
• Max Gust: 19.5mph
• Hourly Rain: 3.54"
• Daily Rain: 5.78"
• Yearly Rain: 43.94"

 

Is this on average? Was it really on average 97.4°F this past year, or are you being a fibbing, full of fiery pants, warminista?

[Voyager]

21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Is this on average? Was it really on average 97.4°F this past year, or are you being a fibbing, full of fiery pants, warminista?

No. The temperatures listed are the calendar date maximum and minimum for the year. My annual average (both high and low), which I didn't include because I didn't have the station prior to May 9th, was 59.0F.

Ambient doesn't list high annual average and low annual average separately. It only combines the two.

 

[Bubbler86]

1 hour ago, TimB84 said:

I’ll admit that I was a bit tipsy when I looked at the models last night, but didn’t the 0z GFS and CMC suppress the 1/7 system? I remember being glad I stayed up for the Euro and I’m glad to see it’s back on the GFS.

Take it or leave it, but the Icon is very interesting for late week.   A  Chattanooga Choo Choo.  LSV wise, almost perfect trough placement for land based Miller A scenario. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Not even a tenth of an inch of rain here yet. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not even a tenth of an inch of rain here yet. 

Same here in Marysville.

Here is my first ever “official” non-snow  precip report!

I am at  currently at .04 according to my new weather station.

 

[Bubbler86]

4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not even a tenth of an inch of rain here yet. 

We have had about 1/2" the last 12 hours. 

[Itstrainingtime]

6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

We have had about 1/2" the last 12 hours. 

.09" here with very light rain falling. Hopeful that we can get a few periods of something more significant this afternoon. 

[Superstorm]

This is close on GFS.




.

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This is close on GFS.




.

Lots of virga apparently.  The land truth only shows snow in the far S/E vs. that sim radar shot. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

This is close on GFS.




.

The 1/7 storm now looks identical on the 12z GFS.