Superstorm Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 It is cutting again for next Friday. UGH!No blocking or pseudo blocking. Cutter written all over it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, paweather said: It is cutting again for next Friday. UGH! Luckily we have 6 days to go. Lots of time for a few small changes to help the snow cause for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 19 minutes ago, Superstorm said: No blocking or pseudo blocking. Cutter written all over it. . I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I agree 100% Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner No, I was misunderstood - I'm not saying there's a 100% chance it's going to cut. I'm a little smarter than that. I am saying that I agree 100% with his assertion that it COULD cut, given the weakness in heights out in front of the low as depicted on various model runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: No, I was misunderstood - I'm not saying there's a 100% chance it's going to cut. I'm a little smarter than that. I am saying that I agree 100% with his assertion that it COULD cut, given the weakness in heights out in front of the low as depicted on various model runs today. Ok. Gotcha.. Verbatim, if Ens suite has more of a clue at d7, SLP rides boundary and NW 2/3 of Pa takes that run most any day. You n I sweat it out and pray for thermal boundaries to hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner Thanks I never look at the ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Ok. Gotcha.. FWIW, which is likely very little...I do believe we'll see wintry weather; even in our hoods, within the next 10-14 days. I'm certainly not on a negative crusade...but I will continue to analyze fairly and not through snow goggles, either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, paweather said: Thanks I never look at the ensemble No prob. Surely not here to tell ya how to roll...but at that timeframe, Ens or Op....its more of a tossup. IMO id go 60/40 Ens over Op, as you have multiple iterations weighing averages over 1 Op run. Just something to ponder when you peek at the models... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: FWIW, which is likely very little...I do believe we'll see wintry weather; even in our hoods, within the next 10-14 days. I'm certainly not on a negative crusade...but I will continue to analyze fairly and not through snow goggles, either. Dude, its totally ok to be snakebit....your not alone. I'm just trying to keep it real, and as you suggest....chances may be getting real. Rolling forward, longwave trough looks to take aim at conus, but early on cold isnt deep...but it gets there twds end of run. Pattern shuffles w/ Pac ridge finally there, but if could still be wet not white for a while. At least we have a new hand to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No prob. Surely not here to tell ya how to roll...but at that timeframe, Ens or Op....its more of a tossup. IMO id go 60/40 Ens over Op, as you have multiple iterations weighing averages over 1 Op run. Just something to ponder when you peek at the models... Even considering the 12z Euro Op at 500 for the 6/7th chance, the Southeast ridge is muted and there is ridging off of the coast but centered well to the northeast. There should be plenty of room for the storm to dig a bit more and slide west to east instead of heading to the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 36 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Did you guys look at GFS Ens guidance for same time stamp? You might want to back that percentage down a bit. Verbatim GFS Ens suite is just fine for d7 Op Ens....pick your winner I agree, ensembles are the way to go for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Even considering the 12z Euro Op at 500 for the 6/7th chance, the Southeast ridge is muted and there is ridging off of the coast but centered well to the northeast. There should be plenty of room for the storm to dig a bit more and slide west to east instead of heading to the lakes. Let’s hope Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Just went for a 4 mile hike with my dad in the forested hills around Danville. 55 degrees with new vegetation growing on the forest floor. It looks and feels like Spring. Just crazy. It's pretty amazing out for activities. We are at south maintain creamery waiting in a line of a dozen for ice cream. People sitting outside and eating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's pretty amazing out for activities. We are at south maintain creamery waiting in a line of a dozen for ice cream. People sitting outside and eating. Yes, I am a lover of the cold seasons and want them...but trying to make the best of this weather. It was nice to actually get out when it's NOT raining. Usually on this side of the mountains during the winter there will be sunny days. Not this week! Gloomy and dreary. The sun slightly peeked out a couple times during our hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 37 minutes ago, pasnownut said: No prob. Surely not here to tell ya how to roll...but at that timeframe, Ens or Op....its more of a tossup. IMO id go 60/40 Ens over Op, as you have multiple iterations weighing averages over 1 Op run. Just something to ponder when you peek at the models... Here is the 12z EPS for the 6/7th chance. Lots of options on the table with several of the low locations taking the low track under us and several that look like the current Op. This is not over according to the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here are the last 2 frames of the EPS for the 7th. Lots of options still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's pretty amazing out for activities. We are at south maintain creamery waiting in a line of a dozen for ice cream. People sitting outside and eating. Is it dry there? Here it's relatively mild at 48 degrees, but it's still dark, gray, and misty/foggy. Certainly not nice enough to sit outside and eat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It's pretty amazing out for activities. We are at south maintain creamery waiting in a line of a dozen for ice cream. People sitting outside and eating. 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes, I am a lover of the cold seasons and want them...but trying to make the best of this weather. It was nice to actually get out when it's NOT raining. Usually on this side of the mountains during the winter there will be sunny days. Not this week! Gloomy and dreary. The sun slightly peeked out a couple times during our hike. 53 here and despite the clouds it's very nice outside. Good day to get out for a New Year's Eve ice cream cone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 53 here and despite the clouds it's very nice outside. Good day to get out for a New Year's Eve ice cream cone. Drizzle all day over here. Havent been out in last hour tho.... This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 53 here and despite the clouds it's very nice outside. Good day to get out for a MANY New Year's Eve ice cream coneS. Plan on countering this for your New Year's Eve festivities? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are the last 2 frames of the EPS for the 7th. Lots of options still on the table. Dunno. If your rooting the EPS on, gotta hope this continues to trend SE as it has last 2 runs. Need that boundary further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Plan on countering this for your New Year's Eve festivities? Well, I don't drink at all, so... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Drizzle all day over here. Havent been out in last hour tho.... This sucks. Sun is out here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well, I don't drink at all, so... Good for you! Me neither, other than the very occasional glass of wine. I'm actually encouraged to read this for several reasons...so, get drunk on ice cream, we shall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Moving further out of the 12z EPS, it finally shows a full scale pattern change. The negative PNA would be a distant memory. Day 10 has good ridging out West with a positive PNA and trough in the northeast. Day 15 still shows the +PNA with a very good looking deep trough in the east. If this look holds, we could see a very good pattern for winter storms between the 10th and 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Yes, I am a lover of the cold seasons and want them...but trying to make the best of this weather. It was nice to actually get out when it's NOT raining. Usually on this side of the mountains during the winter there will be sunny days. Not this week! Gloomy and dreary. The sun slightly peeked out a couple times during our hike. It's defintely been a day to get out with tomorrow looming. I love winter weather as well..miss it right now...but not going to ignore what we have. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 29 minutes ago, Voyager said: Is it dry there? Here it's relatively mild at 48 degrees, but it's still dark, gray, and misty/foggy. Certainly not nice enough to sit outside and eat. It's completely sunny except some clouds hanging over the ridges. Can see some clouds moving in from the west as well. It's 58 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Well, I don't drink at all, so... You may get drunk on the excitement from the HH gfs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 10 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sun is out here now. 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: It's completely sunny except some clouds hanging over the ridges. Can see some clouds moving in from the west as well. It's 58 right now. The sky has really cleared out here in Danville as well, with those same low clouds hanging over the ridges. Temp is 52 degrees. I'm actually quite impressed with the uniform temperatures across the entire state of PA currently. Mostly within the 47 to 52 degree range with a few sites on the north and south edges a bit outside of that. Bubbler, I believe you area tends to get those warm air surges on your side of the ridge, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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