Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rode the Loch Ness Monster in 1981 and again again in 2019. Amazing how perception changes from a 16 year old to when you're 54. Equally amazing how far coasters have come - I drove to BGW JUST to ride that shortly after I got my license. It was a "must do" back then. Did you catch the Rebel Yell on the way by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Bubbler86 said: Did you catch the Rebel Yell on the way by? Oh yes...and I was not a fan of the side that went backwards. That did me in. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Oh yes...and I was not a fan of the side that went backwards. That did me in. LOL I do not like backwards either. It ruins the day with nausea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I do not like backwards either. It ruins the day with nausea. Yep... I do love BGW though...gorgeous park! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Yea trends on the models have been consistently showing a transition to a +NAO/AO going forward. For us to have a longer lasting period of cold/snow opportunities later in January, this is where we need some ridging out west to build in the PNA realm to go with the persistent Pac ridging (-WPO). Looking at today’s ensembles, Euro EPS and GEFS both transition towards a western ridge look but differ a good bit in alignment. GEFS vs Euro EPS 500mb anomaly (Day 10-15 average) The GEFS has a really good look, with the ridge bridging over to Siberia. This alignment would suggest a more direct cold air source, even with the +AO look. Basically pretty chilly but not overwhelming. The Euro has troughing in AK.. cutting off that Siberian source and flattening/broadening the western ridge, and generally making for a warmer look in the east. Here’s the comparison with the 5 day average 850 temp anomalies (D10-15 average) The Euro still isn’t super torchy in our region, but you can see how much more favorable the GEFS would be when considering storm track. Yeah without ridging, its not a deep winter look but would be a much better deal than of late. In my mind its just bring the current look further south w/ less cutting for a period. As per above, rooting for the home team model for sure w/ broad based trough kinda look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Yep... I do love BGW though...gorgeous park! My favorite and its not even close. We have a place we rent, on the river, that accepts Pets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: There's definitely a limit to how far north this system can come . I just hope its 75- 100 miles further then this run One can hope for trailing system to slow down a bit. Every bit would help give your baby bumps a chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: The overall fast flow . Hardly any ridging to the west and the 1st wave not far removed to the north putting a cap on its ability to really amplify and move north enough before its eventual exit stage right . We need a bit more spacing between the waves and also with as strong as possible shortwave to pump heights out ahead as it moves north. Its certainly in the realm Nailed it pal. Good to see you in here w/ us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see. Did someone say 18z GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Did someone say 18z GFS? Watch it pal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Did someone say 18z GFS? Not sure what you're looking at??? It ticked just tevery way we could have asked it to. It moved closer to an event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, TimB84 said: Did someone say 18z GFS? Please share what you didnt like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Not sure what you're looking at??? It ticked just tevery way we could have asked it to. It moved closer to an event here. Fair enough, I was way too hasty in my look at it. General pattern is ugly when it comes to sustained cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Fair enough, I was way too hasty in my look at it. Yeah I know.... If you dont like something or see something to share against what others post...post it....otherwise.....thanks in advance. The gigs getting old...especially in these hard times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, TimB84 said: Fair enough, I was way too hasty in my look at it. General pattern is ugly when it comes to sustained cold. I understood your post to be about the general long wave pattern and it is spot on. It's just a model run but anything resembling winter is transient. Could snow of course but during the entire run it only gets near or below 20, at MDT, one evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Just subtle changes on the HH Euro . But the takeaway is a slower southern sw which is a good thing . Euro doesn't usually make significant changes inside 100 hours so I'll take several baby ticks starting now lol. Just said the same earlier. Slower gives it a chance. Having a couple models working to better solutions is a refreshing change. Still work to do but, ya know.... beggars.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I understood your post to be about the general long wave pattern and it is spot on. It's just a model run but anything resembling winter is transient. Could snow of course but during the entire run it only gets near or below 20, at MDT, one evening. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: There are some 12"+ totals on the 18Z GFS for the Chessie area. That is not too common to see. Nah....it was about this post above. Its getting old guys.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Yeah I know.... If you dont like something or see something to share against what others post...post it....otherwise.....thanks in advance. The gigs getting old...especially in these hard times. I apologize, it’s difficult not to get frustrated with a pattern where the opportunities to exit before it’s too late are diminishing. Beyond that, 2021 has been an extremely difficult year for me personally (not just pandemic stuff), and some of that is almost certainly reflected in my negativity about this winter, which feels like icing on the cake to a terrible year. I’ll try to tone it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Colorado is on fire. Thousands are going to be homeless. The weather pattern is amiss cause the climate is amiss. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Almost time for 0z runs to begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 26 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I apologize, it’s difficult not to get frustrated with a pattern where the opportunities to exit before it’s too late are diminishing. Beyond that, 2021 has been an extremely difficult year for me personally (not just pandemic stuff), and some of that is almost certainly reflected in my negativity about this winter, which feels like icing on the cake to a terrible year. I’ll try to tone it down. With all due respect....it's been a difficult 2 years for everyone here...and for a multitude of reasons...the pandemic is just the icing on a big shit cake that has many crappy layers. Not trying to be a dick, and of course everyone here cares about each others challenges, yours included. From another perspective, some/many come here to escape the negativity/shit show outside of weather that runs rampant right now, and use the search of snow (or warm) to "get away from it all". Think about it... Anywhoo....back to the shit pattern that may throw us a bone in the next few days....and might look better as we turn the calendar....for how long....you're only a 384hr map away from finding out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Almost time for 0z runs to begin. The Nam is getting close to go time as to the short term stuff. A good 'ole namming would not be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 25 minutes ago, canderson said: Colorado is on fire. Thousands are going to be homeless. The weather pattern is amiss cause the climate is amiss. I am sure glad I am not there. I read this new article at CNN and it has two weather terms I do not think I have ever heard, one about waves and the other about rapid changes: "The hurricane-force wind gusts being reported are being attributed to "exceptional mountain wave amplification," which is a major increase in wind speed as air flows over and down the mountains into the lower elevations that can occur under very specific atmospheric conditions." "By morning, the region will experience "weather whiplash," going "from fire to snow," according to the weather service. An advancing cold front will push into the area and bring snow showers to foothills and front range by sunrise." They are supposed to get 5-10" of snow. Everybody will just love that. I can see myself calling something "weather whiplash" in the future for sure. https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/30/weather/colorado-wildfires/index.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 37 minutes ago, canderson said: Colorado is on fire. Thousands are going to be homeless. The weather pattern is amiss cause the climate is amiss. It seems so many bad things are happening, either simultaneously or in succession, that is getting hard to stop and focus grief or concern on any given one. I had not heard about this until you brought it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The Nam is getting close to go time as to the short term stuff. A good 'ole namming would not be bad. Unfortunately the 0z NAM went the wrong way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Unfortunately the 0z NAM went the wrong way. Yea, the boundary was quite a bit farther south and though the second wave formed, it was a goner for us. What was a closed off look at 18Z is progressive now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, the boundary was quite a bit farther south and though the second wave formed, it was a goner for us. What was a closed off look at 18Z is progressive now. That...has been the reoccurring theme since last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoralRed Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: It seems so many bad things are happening, either simultaneously or in succession, that is getting hard to stop and focus grief or concern on any given one. I had not heard about this until you brought it up. People are busy and not hearing everything so I am going to share this doomy and gloomy but I am afraid accurate prediction about January from one of those disease experts always on TV. I myself have been meaning to think about what I need to get before Omicron hits every area hard and I hope to God I get what I need by the end of next week. This makes me more aware how out of luck I might be if I don't stock up: "Right now we have a very imperfect situation that's going to require some very imperfect responses,' he said. 'Over the next three to four weeks, we are going to see the number of cases in this country rise so dramatically that we'll have a hard time keeping everyday life operating.' 'Already we are seeing it in our healthcare settings where we can lose 10 to 20 percent of healthcare workers who are not available to work. 'We are seeing that right now in critical infrastructure areas where people can't come to work.' https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-10355849/US-hits-record-nearly-500-000-Covid-cases-24-hours-Experts-says-viral-blizzard.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: RGEM with a decent run . M/D crew in the blues that made a nice bump N/NW w/ precip field. Its not an outlier as it has similarities to NAM/18z GFS. Hoping GFS keeps hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 GFS looks to tick SE for trailer. Not the move we wanted, but still not DOA IMO. I find this interesting. Opens up at 500, but looks like NS and SS are interacting a bit. look at NS height fields into CTP. hmm....I'll keep watching.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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