Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 0Z GFS. MA Mauler. Digging even better this run. Just a tad more North on the transfer and its going to get exciting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Our winter’s been shit but it could be worse. Houston will have its warmest-ever warmest December. OK that’s a big deal - but it’s been so warm it would rank as a top 5 warm November too. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Voyager said: I know, right? Is it considered a bust if the fog forms five minutes earlier or later than the specified time??? Fog really is such a major part of the Pennsylvania climate. I have been especially reminded of this during my week back here. Sure, there was fog SOMETIMES when I lived in Michigan and occasionally where I'm at in Upstate New York. But all the hills, valleys, their topography, rivers, and radiational cooling make for the perfect environment for fog in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Good step by the 0z Euro in the right direction for the Sunday Night/Monday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 This better illustrates the good changes in the right direction on the 0z Euro. 0z Euro is the top photo. 12z Euro for same time stamp on the bottom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: 0Z GFS. MA Mauler. Digging even better this run. Just a tad more North on the transfer and its going to get exciting. The 0z GFS is exciting now for the LSV. Here is the Kuchera ratio map. Hopefully 6z keeps the good trends going… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 9 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Very nice by the sounds ! I use to install alarm systems/ vaults/ driveup tubes in for many banks along 11+15 from Williamsport to Mansfield at all the small whistle stop towns back in the mid late nineties . Your west of Mansfield. I actually have Les chased many times well west of your spot in a area called Edinboro ( sits between 1200'-1600' ) SE of Erie proper. Excellent spot . They usually double Erie's totals . Also spent time in Ashtabula , OH as well a few times . Yeah Bradford and places west are even better locals for LES, but I wanted to keep the drive from being more than 200 miles. I'm at 192. I like Wellsboro because its a great little town with things to do, in and all around...plus I'm a 20 min drive from it. Hope you get your chases on soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 8 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm curious to know what that microclimate averages in snowfall. When I lived in the Dubois area, considerably farther south...driving up Clearfield mountain on Interstate 80 was always like going into the twilight zone. It's about the same elevation as your cabin and the weather and snow were always more extreme up there. I can tell you in 3 events so far, we've had 10-12". I'm a snow nut, not a stats guy, so my love of it isnt for the exact number of how much, it's more of "how can I play in it kinda thing", so I dont keep a log or anything. I know they've had a couple other small events that I've missed, but i was there for the 3 I mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 4 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The 0z GFS is exciting now for the LSV. Here is the Kuchera ratio map. Hopefully 6z keeps the good trends going… The reasoning behind saying it could get exciting is that the lsv really needed a small bump north to remove itself from the outer periphery. No reason to get excited by one outlier run....unfortunately the 6z falls back in line with the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 As MJS and I posted earlier, there could some temp records challenged this weekend. Thought I would lay them out again as I see it. Daily Max Different suites have daily highs getting within 5 degrees of records Friday (65), Sat (64) and Sun (62). Friday seems the least likeliest right now. The Sat/Sun thing could be the somewhat rare two for one record as Sat's highs may happen at 11:59PM. If it is 65 at that point, it would break both the Sat and Sun records over the course of a minute. But as of now the mostly likely of these to be broken is still Sunday as most models keep the Sat temps under the threshold. Daily Min On the daily min side, the record for Friday is 41 and Saturday it is 44. Just going by this AM's numerical predictions, both of those numbers are at great risk of being topped with the temps never leaving the mid 40's on Friday and upper 40's on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 14 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/ My cousin lives up around Fairbanks. He said the beginning of the week they had a foot of snow and then and inch of rain. Which made for a mess. Now yesterday they got a foot of snow. He sais it has been pretty active up there. Mentioned it’s about time to clean the snow off his roof. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, pawatch said: My cousin lives up around Fairbanks. He said the beginning of the week they had a foot of snow and then and inch of rain. Which made for a mess. Now yesterday they got a foot of snow. He sais it has been pretty active up there. Mentioned it’s about time to clean the snow off his roof. Is that a Hex sign in Alaska? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Bub it could be. Him and his wife are originally from Pa. Next Monday a high of 24. But is don’t look like any precipitation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 44 and cloudy i heard back and forth for the 2nd and 3rd is today when we celebrate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 I really like the snow total through 372 for most of PA on the 6z. 1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said: The reasoning behind saying it could get exciting is that the lsv really needed a small bump north to remove itself from the outer periphery. No reason to get excited by one outlier run....unfortunately the 6z falls back in line with the others. But fear not, for there are more 60s in fantasyland on the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, TimB84 said: I really like the snow total through 372 for most of PA on the 6z. But fear not, for there are more 60s in fantasyland on the 6z. We have had great snow maps and nothing to show, so lets try reverse psychology, eh? It is getting to the point that we cannot go a full run without 50's or 60's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 23 minutes ago, pawatch said: My cousin lives up around Fairbanks. He said the beginning of the week they had a foot of snow and then and inch of rain. Which made for a mess. Now yesterday they got a foot of snow. He sais it has been pretty active up there. Mentioned it’s about time to clean the snow off his roof. If I lived in a climate where it snowed that much, and I had that much buildup on my roof every year, I'd seriously look into having a heated roof and keep it melted off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We have had great snow maps and nothing to show, so lets try reverse psychology, eh? It is getting to the point that we cannot go a full run without 50's or 60's. EC brings in a decent snowfall with the cold air later in the week. Might be the only game in town if the Sun/Mon event doesn’t pan out. Ens look almost as bad as the ops for D10+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 Just now, Voyager said: If I lived in a climate where it snowed that much, and I had that much buildup on my roof every year, I'd seriously look into having a heated roof and keep it melted off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: EC brings in a decent snowfall with the cold air later in the week. Might be the only game in town if the Sun/Mon event doesn’t pan out. Ens look almost as bad as the ops for D10+. If we get a decent one (especially both Western and Eastern PA simultaneously) we will probably quickly forget the pain of the pattern change that never came....but until then, we indeed have to keep searching for nuggets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: If we get a decent one (especially both Western and Eastern PA simultaneously) we will probably quickly forget the pain of the pattern change that never came....but until then, we indeed have to keep searching for nuggets. Is it too early to be legitimately worried about finishing winter with a single digit snow total? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 15 hours ago, MAG5035 said: Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/ It's funny, I have buddy moving up to Bethel, AK so I've been keeping tabs on things up that way and they actually had a brutally cold November. Anchorage was like 8 degrees below normal and Bethel was a whopping 18 below average! December has been more of a mixed bag with Anchorage running a few degrees below and Bethel like 8 degrees above, and other locations are all over the place. But November was something else up there, just locked in extreme deep cold. Bethel's average temp for the month of November was .7! Think about that, .7 as an avg., in November no less haha! I believe it was their second coldest of all time. Changing topics but thought some might find this interesting in regards to Sierra snowfall: With four days left to go in the month, Tahoe has already broken the record for December snowfall set 50 years ago. On Monday, December snow totals at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab reached 193.7 inches, blowing a 1970 record of 179 inches out of the water. The lab, located at Donner Pass, has received roughly 39 inches of snow in the past 24 hours and could break the 200-inch mark today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, TimB84 said: Is it too early to be legitimately worried about finishing winter with a single digit snow total? I very much think so, yes. Still in the first 1/3 of the season. (Met). Is it too early for it be discussed in the MA thread as people use the board for solace and counseling? Nope. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Midwest looking like 8-12” for the weekend. Moves East and avoids us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, pawatch said: Midwest looking like 8-12” for the weekend. Moves East and avoids us. "Wave 1" gets a lot of the upper midwest. The GFS has a train of snows lined up for some of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: "Wave 1" gets a lot of the upper midwest. The GFS has a train of snows lined up for some of them. For us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 30, 2021 Author Share Posted December 30, 2021 1 minute ago, paweather said: For us? The tracks are not running through our hood on this specific run. A train of cutters. 384 GFS has a MEC's for us but how often do we say that? Too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Sierra Navada is the place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 16 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Get a newer furnace... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 13 hours ago, pasnownut said: Gaines, Tioga county Pa. Cabin sits on top of mountain at 2275'. Its another world up there. By time we got to bottom of mountain, barely 1'' left on the ground, and once to Wellsboro barely a trace. I bought there for location and upslope for LES/snowmobiling/hunting/general outdoors, but big draw was it is often white when much of state is brown. Like you, I cherish my 4 months of snow chasing, and all the warm chatter just bums me out (thats not a complaint, but a fact), so I just sneak away when i know I have snow to look at. Last night looked good for a few days, so off we went. Entire event was snow last night. Drizzle n snizzle this am for a bit, but sure was enjoyable. When we left cabin at 12:20, it was still 32-33 on top. 35 down bottom and into Wellsboro. By the time we got to Wspt, it was 45. Back home now and waiting for the next chance to head up. Plenty of places to stay if you are ever interested, let me know. I can help w/ that. Good stuff Nut. I believe I've mentioned this to you before but I have a buddy with a cabin up that way that must be close to you, also in Gaines. He's a few miles south of Route 6 and doesn't sit quite as high as you (~1,900') but he is on the north side of the mountain and boy oh boy you ain't kidding about it being a different world up there. I specifically remember a time we went up for a late March bachelor party and there was nary a hint of snow on the entire drive but as soon as we rounded the bend on the top of the mountain the north face was completely covered. His yard still had damn near a foot in it. Then it proceeded to snow almost non-stop for three days, just glorious. We had a keg plopped in the snow. What a weekend and what a place ha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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