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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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32 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said:

53 for me.  

Forgot what it was but the 2p discussion was on it.   Maybe too late to adjust by then. 
 

With sunshine expected to hang tough for at least the next few hours, high temperatures will overperform in the south central mountains and lower Susquehanna Valley. High temperatures should range from the upper 30s to near 40 north to the mid 50s in southern PA. These temperatures are +10 to +15 compared to normal, and the mild weather will stick around through Saturday.

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Just now, MAG5035 said:

I still contend we have not been all that warm.  It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there.  Plenty of very cold nights. 

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50 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yea, no wind meant the winter Version of a Chamber of Commerce day.  MDT got to 54 or 55. The zone forecasts were well under done but I figured that was coming when I looked last night. 

Took some of my family to the Strasburg Railroad (I go A LOT) and we had to open the windows in our car...they must have had the heat on because it was way hotter than this guy can handle. LOL

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12 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Gulf of Alaska Tropics > Susquehanna Valley Tropics

Bubbler definitely would’ve been running the AC in Kodiak, AK yesterday lol. 

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/baked-alaska-record-december-warmth-winter-rains-2021-12-29/

My AC hasn't stopped running. It was on a few times during the snow Monday morning. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Took some of my family to the Strasburg Railroad (I go A LOT) and we had to open the windows in our car...they must have had the heat on because it was way hotter than this guy can handle. LOL

The "winter memories" are taking a hit over here as well.    We have windows and doors open right now...to avoid having to put the A/C on. 

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19 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

I still contend we have not been all that warm.  It may go down as one of the top 5 warmest but it sort of nickeled and dimed its way there.  Plenty of very cold nights. 

Yea I agree with you. We started the month out pretty chilly and weren’t super warm but somewhat above average highs for most of it, with those dry chilly nights kind of counter balancing some. Up until this week we have been in a really dry pattern since November. Big thing is we have had zero legitimate winter cold shots (even something more mundane like 20s for highs) and that’s really weighing into that temperature average. That and of course the last few days to close out the year are definitely going to be significantly above average day and night. 

Take Dec 98 for example, that year got to #2 way differently with the front half of that month way above average and most of the first week of the month in the mid 70s+ for highs (one day cracked 80) at MDT. I remember it well.. I was 12 and it was my first deer season hunting. I’ve had some warm hunts in recent years but there still isn’t anything that compared to the opening day of rifle season that year. 

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7 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I agree with you. We started the month out pretty chilly and weren’t super warm but somewhat above average highs for most of it, with those dry chilly nights kind of counter balancing some. Up until this week we have been in a really dry pattern since November. Big thing is we have had zero legitimate winter cold shots (even something more mundane like 20s for highs) and that’s really weighing into that temperature average. That and of course the last few days to close out the year are definitely going to be significantly above average day and night. 

Take Dec 98 for example, that year got to #2 way differently with the front half of that month way above average and most of the first week of the month in the mid 70s+ for highs (one day cracked 80) at MDT. I remember it well.. I was 12 and it was my first deer season hunting. I’ve had some warm hunts in recent years but there still isn’t anything that compared to the opening day of rifle season that year. 

Yea, definitely a soft top 5 hot month.  5 days in the 60's so far....none in the 70's.  Just no artic intrusions as you mentioned. 

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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

There is our Jan 3rd precious again...starting off warm though its definitely going to snow over some of the LSV on this run.

image.png.9a0f84cb3628470a09832d7349fc1b16.png

 

Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? 

Just model discussion, not a forecast....I think it's tricky with the slightly delayed frontal passage.  Farther north is ok as long as it is a bit farther east.  But as modeled there is a chance of some decent snow maxes in the transition zone.  With the cmc not even acknowledging a formation at that time, it's still suspect though the icon defintely tipped its hat to the gfs at 18z. 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Where?

Deep Creek?...

N.Pa ?

Gaines, Tioga county Pa.  Cabin sits on top of mountain at 2275'.  Its another world up there.  By time we got to bottom of mountain, barely 1'' left on the ground, and once to Wellsboro barely a trace.  I bought there for location and upslope for LES/snowmobiling/hunting/general outdoors, but big draw was it is often white when much of state is brown. 

Like you, I cherish my 4 months of snow chasing, and all the warm chatter just bums me out (thats not a complaint, but a fact), so I just sneak away when i know I have snow to look at.  Last night looked good for a few days, so off we went.  Entire event was snow last night.  Drizzle n snizzle this am for a bit, but sure was enjoyable.  When we left cabin at 12:20, it was still 32-33 on top.  35 down bottom and into Wellsboro.  By the time we got to Wspt, it was 45.

Back home now and waiting for the next chance to head up.  Plenty of places to stay if you are ever interested, let me know.  I can help w/ that.

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2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Importantly, that low pressure has been getting modeled deeper (slightly) each passing day it seems. I would think that deeper low = chances of it being farther north? 

Perhaps the ridge to the south & east will put up just enough resistance in order for the follow up wave to ride the boundary in a spot that works for us?

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2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Gaines, Tioga county Pa.  Cabin sits on top of mountain at 2275'.  Its another world up there.  By time we got to bottom of mountain, barely 1'' left on the ground, and once to Wellsboro barely a trace.  I bought there for location and upslope for LES/snowmobiling/hunting/general outdoors, but big draw was it is often white when much of state is brown. 

Like you, I cherish my 4 months of snow chasing, and all the warm chatter just bums me out (thats not a complaint, but a fact), so I just sneak away when i know I have snow to look at.  Last night looked good for a few days, so off we went.  Entire event was snow last night.  Drizzle n snizzle this am for a bit, but sure was enjoyable.  When we left cabin at 12:20, it was still 32-33 on top.  35 down bottom and into Wellsboro.  By the time we got to Wspt, it was 45.

Back home now and waiting for the next chance to head up.  Plenty of places to stay if you are ever interested, let me know.  I can help w/ that.

I'm curious to know what that microclimate averages in snowfall. When I lived in the Dubois area, considerably farther south...driving up Clearfield mountain on Interstate 80 was always like going into the twilight zone. It's about the same elevation as your cabin and the weather and snow were always more extreme up there.

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