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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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46 minutes ago, paweather said:

GFS is getting cold again on the 13th.

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now.  We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold.  Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view.  Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while.  There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me.  No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now.  We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold.  Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view.  Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while.  There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me.  No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

Yes it disappear with the SE ridge.

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6 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Transient cold shots much the same as we are seeing now.  We need wholesale changes discussed yesterday to get cold to hold.  Sorry, just not gonna do it in current view.  Yes, like next week, there can be well timed events to keep hope alive, but verbatim, your cold on the 13th is replaced w/ SE flow on the 15th w/ pig ridge. As much as I HATE being a Debbie, I'm just trying to temper hopes and expectations for a little while.  There absolutely can be an event that gets us and everyone can roast the hell outta me.  No problem, but as sad as it is to type it, I'm standing where I am until larger changes start to show upstream.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_49.png

I think you and I have temporarily taken on each other's personalities. :)

Truly, there is little to be excited about for wintry weather anytime soon. Pattern looks putrid for snow lovers, that's for sure. I've been watching this setup for next week and thinking "well...why not...there ain't nothing else to look at anytime soon" kind of  thing. 

Whether we get anything wintry or not next week, this month will likely go down as well above normal in the temp department, and likely below for snowfall. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think you and I have temporarily taken on each other's personalities. :)

Truly, there is little to be excited about for wintry weather anytime soon. Pattern looks putrid for snow lovers, that's for sure. I've been watching this setup for next week and thinking "well...why not...there ain't nothing else to look at anytime soon" kind of  thing. 

Whether we get anything wintry or not next week, this month will likely go down as well above normal in the temp department, and likely below for snowfall. 

I was wondering if the +8 had a shot but recent runs are tempering it a bit to just a run of the mill AN departure. 

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5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Whether we get anything wintry or not next week, this month will likely go down as well above normal in the temp department, and likely below for snowfall. 

And correct me if I am wrong, but most seasonal outlooks had December being the pick of the litter for winter? 

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think you and I have temporarily taken on each other's personalities. :)

Truly, there is little to be excited about for wintry weather anytime soon. Pattern looks putrid for snow lovers, that's for sure. I've been watching this setup for next week and thinking "well...why not...there ain't nothing else to look at anytime soon" kind of  thing. 

Whether we get anything wintry or not next week, this month will likely go down as well above normal in the temp department, and likely below for snowfall. 

Then I'm in good company.

Hope for next week would be deeper trough post Monday, or quicker ejection out of midwest for your storm to have a chance.  Keep an eye on NAO and if it keeps the neutral look, stale cold is better than no cold (even GFS hints at N Pa seeing ice).  IF any of these things happen, then the scorned KIng and his minions may briefly rule the day for next week. 

While MJO plots are met w/ some skepticism of late, in warming times, they are something I hold a little more weight with.  I've been on record of being a fan of AO as my favorite indicie for winter fun round here (that teacher dude in the MA forum used to roast me often about it- it seemed to work, so I'll claim a small victory), and when that happens (or our NAO buddy), then I get a bit excited.  JMO's though.  I'm not afraid to lay out my stance, cause that's partly why I'm here, to discuss learn, share, whatever.  No cats needed.   

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8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

And correct me if I am wrong, but most seasonal outlooks had December being the pick of the litter for winter? 

some said early start, but others have punted december and said around new years into Jan might be first real go time for winter lovers.

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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

some said early start, but others have punted december and said around new years into Jan might be first real go time for winter lovers.

And when do they punt New Year's? 

I think it's time to punt the lot. This feels like 2012. I think that was the year we had basically nothing. 

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1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

You have had a few biggies out there but I know what you mean.  The airmass we currently have means you will not miss much regardless. 

Very rare only 4 ever storms over 20", vs the many further east.  6" is a big storm here, but I doubt that's what we're looking at here in Pittsburgh.

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11 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

And when do they punt New Year's? 

I think it's time to punt the lot. This feels like 2012. I think that was the year we had basically nothing. 

I personally would not punt beyond mid Dec and even that is not as punt with a potential winter system next week.  I think all modeling shows wintery weather here except the GFS....

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