paweather5 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Not bad. Long Range HRRR shows snow? Throw it out, right? LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Not bad. That looks good low to our south. More than 2" on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, paweather said: That looks good low to our south. More than 2" on there. The snow map is one panel behind. It would go up at hour 49. Example, the radar shows snow over all of Cumberland county at 47 but the snow map shows nothing. Plus more snow post 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The snow map is one panel behind. It would go up at hour 49. Example, the radar shows snow over all of Cumberland county at 47 but the snow map shows nothing. Plus more snow post 48. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 the NAM is a hit. Overdone but good hit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Showing off my low-lying cold here as I dropped to 24 last night, same as THV. Incredibly thick fog this morning (ice fog no less), couldn't even remotely see the Amishman's barn less than 1/8 mile away. Remarkably, it fully burned off by like 9am. Waiting for the precip from yesterday to fully melt but looks like I should come in somewhere around .6". My way-too-early thoughts for LSV Saturday......I think we wake up to a period of heavy rain, followed by a quick transition to a cold wind-driven snow and temperatures plummeting through the 20s throughout the day. Flash freeze in full effect. I'm thinking something like 1-3" for the LSV, 3-6" for the middle parts of the valley, and 6-12" for western and northern tier areas. As others have mentioned, always tricky having the cold chase the precip in these scenarios but this one looks to have real potential, and the needle seems to want to thread just right with the two pieces of energy. I think it was @losetoa6 who mentioned the HRRR doing well lately and I couldn't agree more. I used to ignore that model beyond like 12-18 hours out but it's done a really nice job of picking up on the finer details even at range lately. The 12z HRRR sure looks like it's about to be a flush hit and the 12z NAM just came in very strong as well. This could be the real deal for the forum. In any event, I think we're looking at one heck of a dynamic day of weather with some damaging winds, brutal cold, multiple precip types, and hopefully meaningful accumulating snow for mostly everyone. All aboard! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Showing off my low-lying cold here as I dropped to 24 last night, same as THV. Incredibly thick fog this morning (ice fog no less), couldn't even remotely see the Amishman's barn less than 1/8 mile away. Remarkably, it fully burned off by like 9am. Waiting for the precip from yesterday to fully melt but looks like I should come in somewhere around .6". My way-too-early thoughts for LSV Saturday......I think we wake up to a period of heavy rain, followed by a quick transition to a cold wind-driven snow and temperatures plummeting through the 20s throughout the day. Flash freeze in full effect. I'm thinking something like 1-3" for the LSV, 3-6" for the middle parts of the valley, and 6-12" for western and northern tier areas. As others have mentioned, always tricky having the cold chase the precip in these scenarios but this one looks to have real potential, and the needle seems to want to thread just right with the two pieces of energy. I think it was @losetoa6 who mentioned the HRRR doing well lately and I couldn't agree more. I used to ignore that model beyond like 12-18 hours out but it's done a really nice job of picking up on the finer details even at range lately. The 12z HRRR sure likes like it's about to be a flush hit and the 12z NAM just came in very strong as well. This could be the real deal for the forum. In any event, I think we're looking at one heck of a dynamic day of weather with some damaging winds, brutal cold, multiple precip types, and hopefully meaningful accumulating snow for mostly everyone. All aboard! The Black Knight standing up and doing some Thursday morning dirty talk. I like! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12k almost perfect hit for the area. Now if we can only avoid the dreadful north trend this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, paweather said: the NAM is a hit. Overdone but good hit: Yeah it's got many troll lines out, and I'm sure many wanna bite. Still on sidelines down here, but it was a step in the right direction with time left for another bump or 2. Hmmmmm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Showing off my low-lying cold here as I dropped to 24 last night, same as THV. Incredibly thick fog this morning (ice fog no less), couldn't even remotely see the Amishman's barn less than 1/8 mile away. Remarkably, it fully burned off by like 9am. Waiting for the precip from yesterday to fully melt but looks like I should come in somewhere around .6". My way-too-early thoughts for LSV Saturday......I think we wake up to a period of heavy rain, followed by a quick transition to a cold wind-driven snow and temperatures plummeting through the 20s throughout the day. Flash freeze in full effect. I'm thinking something like 1-3" for the LSV, 3-6" for the middle parts of the valley, and 6-12" for western and northern tier areas. As others have mentioned, always tricky having the cold chase the precip in these scenarios but this one looks to have real potential, and the needle seems to want to thread just right with the two pieces of energy. I think it was @losetoa6 who mentioned the HRRR doing well lately and I couldn't agree more. I used to ignore that model beyond like 12-18 hours out but it's done a really nice job of picking up on the finer details even at range lately. The 12z HRRR sure likes like it's about to be a flush hit and the 12z NAM just came in very strong as well. This could be the real deal for the forum. In any event, I think we're looking at one heck of a dynamic day of weather with some damaging winds, brutal cold, multiple precip types, and hopefully meaningful accumulating snow for mostly everyone. All aboard! Looks really good I am excited with white on the ground outside today that was beautiful this will top it though dynamic with heavy rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah it's got many troll lines out, and I'm sure many wanna bite. Still on sidelines down here, but it was a step in the right direction with time left for another bump or 2. Hmmmmm... 12K around 6-7" take 2" off and your still at 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, paweather said: 12K around 6-7" take 2" off and your still at 4" or so. Yeah I saw it. It would really be ironic to likely end the snow season with a well timed and nicely placed event that is being shown. It's what we waited for all winter, and Mo Nature throws us a bone for the last hurrah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Well full weenie mode with the nam runs, sitting At 12 inches on the year not much to track this year. 3k run is perfect. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, paweather said: the NAM is a hit. Overdone but good hit: I wouldn’t say it’s overdone, this is easily a 6-10” (or greater) type event for wherever the swath sets up. It’s a timing thing, NAM seems to both press the front pretty well and hold back the wave long enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: I wouldn’t say it’s overdone, this is easily a 6-10” (or greater) type event for wherever the swath sets up. It’s a timing thing, NAM seems to both press the front pretty well and hold back the wave long enough. Sounds good MAG. It is a wait and see for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I am trying so hard not to get excited about this, for fear of another letdown. It does look beautiful and what a way to wrap things up, if it happens. Hopefully it holds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: I am trying so hard not to get excited about this, for fear of another letdown. It does look beautiful and what a way to wrap things up, if it happens. Hopefully it holds. Trust me, you're not the only one feeling like that right now... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Trust me, you're not the only one feeling like that right now... We are all weeneis on this Thursday morning. Let's bring her home! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: We are all weeneis on this Thursday morning. Let's bring her home! GFS ticked a bit better for LSV. Holds serve for CTP shellackin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Not what I wanted to see: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, pasnownut said: GFS ticked a bit better for LSV. Holds serve for CTP shellackin... GFS is close to my thoughts on totals, with the hope that it ticks a few notches SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Let's see if the EURO holds serve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 37 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: We are all weeneis on this Thursday morning. Let's bring her home! If we're going to do this, I'm glad it's on a Saturday. Gives plenty of time to clear the roads for Monday work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS is close to my thoughts on totals, with the hope that it ticks a few notches SE.... i was looking at TT panels and saw a slight adjustment SE. 3k is money (if one believes it at this juncture.) A compromise of the 2 is a CTP beatdown for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: i was looking at TT panels and saw a slight adjustment SE. 3k is money (if one believes it at this juncture.) A compromise of the 2 is a CTP beatdown for sure. Let's do it NUT. Just once this year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, paweather said: Not what I wanted to see: If you zoom into the NE you'll note it came SE down around the M/D line and points south. Likely a byproduct of the slp being a tad SE of 6z and precip panels adjusted accordingly. This is why I look at the snow panels as they show a rough blend of thermal profiles, precip and even forcing in frozen and non frozen varieties. Not for the perty colors. Really wouldnt take much to get us in the game down here. Gonna be close either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: If you zoom into the NE you'll note it came SE down around the M/D line and points south. Likely a byproduct of the slp being a tad SE of 6z and precip panels adjusted accordingly. This is why I look at the snow panels as they show a rough blend of thermal profiles, precip and even forcing in frozen and non frozen varieties. Not for the perty colors. Really wouldnt take much to get us in the game down here. Gonna be close either way. Like you said a blend of the NAM/GFS is a solid hit right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, paweather said: Like you said a blend of the NAM/GFS is a solid hit right now. Very solid. Canadian just came in very solid as well, better than prior runs. Heck, even the Ukie moved SE, although it's been all over the map ha. Let the optimism flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 For those who want to really weenie-out, the long range RAP came through nice as well. I know I know ha. Hey, we haven't had many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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