Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 986 mb over Va Beach . Lookin good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Impressive afternoon March temps on the Euro . The cold weekend into next week is quite impressive on all models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: That is exciting any month of the cold season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Haha, time for the role reversal. Trying to nail stuff in the Sus Valley has been extremely frustrating for me this winter. With this setup I’m only going to acknowledge the western half of PA has the best chance of seeing what could be significant snow (6+) for now. I do agree on the flash freeze potential and likely some kind of snow accumulation with a big time shot of cold being pulled into a very rapidly deepening coastal low. Models, especially the global ones have been too overzealous on the eastern edge of snow swaths so I’m taking some pause for this. The potential for a good snow event for everyone is there though. We have had a lot of issues - too far north, too far west, too far east, not cold enough, etc. I slightly disagree about today's event specific to my area regarding temps and rates. Heavier rates simply lowered my temp from the upper 30s (it was 38 and raining steadily when I left for work) to the mid 30s during the most intense periods of snow. If we would have been say 35-36 and fell to 33 or so, it would have been a different story. @CarlislePaWx was holding at 32.9 I believe for a good portion of the event - I'll be interested to hear how much QPF he had to see if he had more snow because he had lower temps and or higher QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Now that's pretty So are these….for what they are worth after today’s let down… 10-1 & Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The cold weekend into next week is quite impressive on all models. Someone better tell CTP because they have me at 56 on Monday which is 5 degrees AN, and then in the low 60s starting Tuesday which is a +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Yea, living in the real world is bad news. You know I was only kidding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 @MAG5035 What was your final snow amount today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Eps Great run! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here is the 18z EPS & Control snow maps for Saturday. Slight uptick in amounts over the last few runs on the EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Here are CTP’s thoughts on the weekend. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 2 pm update... The highlight of this period will be the expected winter storm Friday night and Saturday. Still the customary model uncertainty with just how quickly colder air pours into the region late Friday night and Saturday morning, and how that timing meshes with the best forcing/heaviest precipitation. The latest model consensus has the highest chance for accumulating snow and perhaps locally heavy (4-6"+) amounts north of I-80 and west of I-99. A tight gradient in snowfall is likely south and east of these regions. One factor that was noted in model guidance this far out, unlike some other systems we`ve had this winter, is a very sharp rain to snow transition and little in the way of either sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 18z EPS & Control snow maps for Saturday. Slight uptick in amounts over the last few runs on the EPS. Seems low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Haha, time for the role reversal. Trying to nail stuff in the Sus Valley has been extremely frustrating for me this winter. With this setup I’m only going to acknowledge the western half of PA has the best chance of seeing what could be significant snow (6+) for now. I do agree on the flash freeze potential and likely some kind of snow accumulation with a big time shot of cold being pulled into a very rapidly deepening coastal low. Models, especially the global ones have been too overzealous on the eastern edge of snow swaths so I’m taking some pause for this. The potential for a good snow event for everyone is there though. It’s all good man. Glad you are getting some opps this year. Yeah the southern/eastern edge is what I was chatting about earlier. Things have adjusted north inside of 36 more than a few times of late. With no HP to help, my worry was that we didn’t have sufficient cold at lower levels. Couple that with the last minute adjustment north and here we are again. Good luck this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I agree, it was nice to see snow falling for most of the day, even though it didn’t add up to much in the LSV. The grass & mulch & car tops were covered in northern Harrisburg and Marysville today. Mrs. Blizz and the Blizz kids reported around 2 inches of snow on the grass and car tops at work & school near Duncannon today. This could have easily been an Advisory event for most of the LSV if the radar would have cooperated early this am. Oh well…on to Saturday! I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday. Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked. Oh well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 43 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem and long range Hrrr did the best on today's storm imo. Rgem has done really well imby for 3 winter storms in a row . The HRRR has been solid all winter....30 hours out, 20 hours out....much less flopping than some other mesos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 That was a nice NAM run for just about everyone NW of I-81. Hopefully maybe a tick or two more SE so Harrisburg can get it too. There may be some help from ratios too, Kuchera shows over a foot for I-99/Rt 220 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: I’d say we got 1/2 of a car topper here. Sounds like elevation also played the role that many thought as chickies did better than lower spots. Yes it did flip to snow with better rates but better rates went largely north and some models showed that late yesterday. Once I saw that last night that was my worry that we were cooked. Oh well. Where I grew up in Southern Lancaster county (about 600 feet) I remember several times each winter we would have snow on the ground during borderline events while at Penn Manor high school in Millersville (lower in elevation) would have rain or just wet snow. Mt. Nebo and Martic Township, at their higher elevations, were even snowier. That area is a VERY unique microclimate that many people don't know about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k Euro Good to see these 2 that you posted agree. The Canadian is also onboard now, but the GFS needs some work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I really haven't been paying attention, Is this a Friday into Saturday thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 CTP is ramping up their discussion today&& “LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An impactful winter storm is on tap for the beginning half of the weekend. Precipitation enters the region from the northwest as rain and quickly overspreads PA beginning Friday night. The transition to snow in the northwest will be rather swift given the influx of frigid air. The tight temperature gradient associated with this system will lead to a mainly rain event in the southeast and an impactful winter event for the north, west, and central PA. The rain/snow transition zone will be located near and along the I-80/I-99 corridor with rain in the southeast and snow in the northwest. Given the vast amount of cold air that will plunge into the region swiftly, there is little likelihood that there will be any wintry mix or ice out of this system. The dominant precipitation types will be rain and snow. By Saturday afternoon, all of the Commonwealth transitions over to snow before tapering off by late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Snow rates and SLRs are expected to be high, but the exact location of the heaviest banding of snow is still uncertain. Currently, the forecast has 6 to 8" in the northeast and 4 to 6" for much of the rest of the Commonwealth aside from the southeast, which will likely only see about an inch or two of snow. As snow starts to taper off on Saturday the wind is going to pick up and temperatures will tank. Gusts of 30+ mph combined with fresh dry snow will likely lead to drifting snow.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 WSW hoisted for Blair, Cambria, and Clearfield counties so far for 5-8. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 A numbing 25 here with a heavy. snow like, frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Dipped to 26 with a thick freezing fog and an inch of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 46 minutes ago, sauss06 said: I really haven't been paying attention, Is this a Friday into Saturday thing? Canderson wrote this one off before it even started. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: Canderson wrote this one off before it even started. Speaking of which, it hit 30 at MDT this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 Things are glazed this morning from freezing fog. Ended up with 2.5” yesterday before it started melting. it snowed from approx 7:00 am to 5:00 pm. Bring on Saturdays storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 Incoming on the HRRR at 1 AM Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think Penndot dropped the ball here. I didn't see hide nor hair of a salt truck. at 5am was the closest i have come to wrecking without wrecking in my driving years. I-81 and all on/off ramps were horrible ice. I81 was like a demolition derby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 10, 2022 Author Share Posted March 10, 2022 1 minute ago, sauss06 said: I think Penndot dropped the ball here. I didn't see hide nor hair of a salt truck. at 5am was the closest i have come to wrecking without wrecking in my driving years. I-81 and all on/off ramps were horrible ice. I81 was like a demolition derby Scary when that happens....loss of control. Not just the car but ones well being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 I think Penndot dropped the ball here. I didn't see hide nor hair of a salt truck. at 5am was the closest i have come to wrecking without wrecking in my driving years. I-81 and all on/off ramps were horrible ice. I81 was like a demolition derbyIsn't 81 always a demolition derby? What was so different about today? A little ice? LolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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