Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[CarlislePaWx]

Holding at 62.6 here with CALM winds.  The cold air does not appear to be anywhere close to behind the front.  The rain is already half way through Pittsburgh but they're still in the upper 50s all the way back to central Ohio.  Should be interesting this evening.  BTW, my low this morning was 52.2.  That would blow away the max min for today if it didn't drop below that by midnight.  If the colder air does lag behind the front perhaps temps could still be around 50 even at midnight?

[canderson]

71. It’s muggy out. 

[LakeEffectKing]

I haven't started one of these in a long time.  Trying to change it up.

New thread. 

 

[Bubbler86]

35 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Stuck at 74 here for the past hour plus. 

We have never gone above 66 here. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said:

I haven't started one of these in a long time.  Trying to change it up.

New thread. 

 

This would be our first and only thread, on the C Pa forum, on fake snow :-) 

[LakeEffectKing]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

This would be our first and only thread, on the C Pa forum, on fake snow :-) 

Lol!

[paweather]

not bad:

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, paweather said:

not bad:

 

Paw Paw jackpot. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I briefly touched 76 but am back down to 72 now.  LNS hit 77 but THV and MDT haven't been above 72, with rain on the doorstep.  Interesting. 

[paweather]

Rain just about to begin

[sauss06]

2 hours ago, paweather said:

It is time to get the blower out in Myra. 

Mine will remain in my shed. I never got it out or serviced it prior to winter. Maybe next winter........Maybe

[Bubbler86]

To further the post from MJS, not exactly chilly out west but some cool down.  Rain has started here and we are down to 64 so appears 66 will be the high today here.

 

[paweather]

Brightening skies with rain

[paweather]

HH runs soon up will it be party time

[WmsptWx]

Let me tell you people something about a porcupine's balls: They are small and they don't give a shit.

Also, the Motorola Edge has this incredible feature where YOU CANT POST IN ****ING FORUMS. I've been trying for the past two and a half weeks to figure out how to reply and I finally installed Tapatalk to do so.

Motorola can suck on my entire ass.

Oh, and it's raining.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk

[Bubbler86]

28 minutes ago, Atomixwx said:

Let me tell you people something about a porcupine's balls: They are small and they don't give a shit.

Also, the Motorola Edge has this incredible feature where YOU CANT POST IN ****ING FORUMS. I've been trying for the past two and a half weeks to figure out how to reply and I finally installed Tapatalk to do so.

Motorola can suck on my entire ass.

Oh, and it's raining.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

So many great quips gone....never to be heard. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

As for Wednesday, with dew points hovering in the low to mid 30s throughout the event, I don't expect very efficient accumulation or many issues on any paved surfaces.  I do think some in our area could see a couple, to perhaps a few, inches on north-facing decks and grassy surfaces and whatnot.  Looking forward to hopefully putting something in the books for March.  All snow is good snow. 

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

As for Wednesday, with dew points hovering in the low to mid 30s throughout the event, I don't expect very efficient accumulation or many issues on any paved surfaces.  I do think some in our area could see a couple, to perhaps a few, inches on north-facing decks and grassy surfaces and whatnot.  Looking forward to hopefully putting something in the books for March.  All snow is good snow. 

ALWAYS my man. 

[MAG5035]

Have to acknowledge the winter threat coming up on Wednesday, I know I haven’t been posting as much lately. The key thing I see for this is simply where the best QPF and rates set up. It’s as simple as that really, given good agreement on progged low track to the south of PA and sufficient cold for a snow column. We go through this Every. Single. March/late season. If the rates are there, the snow is going to pile up on more than the mulch.. and that includes roadways and everything else in between except maybe @canderson’s property lol.

With that said, having chilly but somewhat marginal surface temps and the higher March solar insolation… an event with light rates (and/or the fringe areas within the precip shield)  is probably going to have some trouble accumulating on a lot of surfaces outside of higher elevations. Most guidance and ensembles are showing decent rates/amounts over a good part of our subforum. The NAM seems to be the least on board for a widespread heavier event in C-PA actually having the axis of heaviest QPF running the northern half Mid-Atlantic forum’s turf and also our southern tier. 12z was pretty nice, however the new 18z has the same axis but tightened up the good QPF. It seems like the biggest amounts in play for this event is probably going to reside in the 3-6” range. Again, rates are important.. especially with this being progged to be generally a daytime event. 

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Have to acknowledge the winter threat coming up on Wednesday, I know I haven’t been posting as much lately. The key thing I see for this is simply where the best QPF and rates set up. It’s as simple as that really, given good agreement on progged low track to the south of PA and sufficient cold for a snow column. We go through this Every. Single. March/late season. If the rates are there, the snow is going to pile up on more than the mulch.. and that includes roadways and everything else in between except maybe @canderson’s property lol.

With that said, having chilly but somewhat marginal surface temps and the higher March solar insolation… an event with light rates (and/or the fringe areas within the precip shield)  is probably going to have some trouble accumulating on a lot of surfaces outside of higher elevations. Most guidance and ensembles are showing decent rates/amounts over a good part of our subforum. The NAM seems to be the least on board for a widespread heavier event in C-PA actually having the axis of heaviest QPF running the northern half Mid-Atlantic forum’s turf and also our southern tier. 12z was pretty nice, however the new 18z has the same axis but tightened up the good QPF. It seems like the biggest amounts in play for this event is probably going to reside in the 3-6” range. Again, rates are important.. especially with this being progged to be generally a daytime event. 

 

Yep.  Good summary.  All the standard March caveats apply. 

[paweather]

My prediction 3-4" Low end 5-6" high end

[canderson]

Line out in western PA has tstorm warnings from south to north border. Impressive. 

[canderson]

2 hours ago, Atomixwx said:

Let me tell you people something about a porcupine's balls: They are small and they don't give a shit.

Also, the Motorola Edge has this incredible feature where YOU CANT POST IN ****ING FORUMS. I've been trying for the past two and a half weeks to figure out how to reply and I finally installed Tapatalk to do so.

Motorola can suck on my entire ass.

Oh, and it's raining.

Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk
 

I thought all Motorola phones had been sent to be Syria now?

[Voyager]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
455 PM EST MON MAR 7 2022

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 37 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES 

PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS                BEDFORD             BLAIR
CAMBRIA              CAMERON             CENTRE
CLEARFIELD           CLINTON             COLUMBIA
CUMBERLAND           DAUPHIN             FRANKLIN
FULTON               HUNTINGDON          JUNIATA
LANCASTER            LEBANON             LYCOMING
MIFFLIN              MONTOUR             NORTHUMBERLAND
PERRY                POTTER              SCHUYLKILL
SNYDER               SOMERSET            SULLIVAN
TIOGA                UNION               YORK
$$

[Bubbler86]

Temp has gone from 62 to 66 here. 

[MAG5035]

Nothing crazy to report here, I ended up going through a broken part of the line and didn’t even get a downpour. Only a gust to 32mph with the passage. Getting some higher gusts now post front (up to 34 mph max gust so far). Temp falling rapidly down to 52ºF… a 10 degree drop in the last 30 min. 

[canderson]

10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Temp has gone from 62 to 66 here. 

Been a wild swing here today - low of 51, got to 73 at 1230, down to 58 at 2:50 and now up to 70 again. 

Incoming line out west is strengthening a bit. Don’t expect the mountains to do much to disrupt it. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 hours ago, MAG5035 said:

Have to acknowledge the winter threat coming up on Wednesday, I know I haven’t been posting as much lately. The key thing I see for this is simply where the best QPF and rates set up. It’s as simple as that really, given good agreement on progged low track to the south of PA and sufficient cold for a snow column. We go through this Every. Single. March/late season. If the rates are there, the snow is going to pile up on more than the mulch.. and that includes roadways and everything else in between except maybe @canderson’s property lol.

With that said, having chilly but somewhat marginal surface temps and the higher March solar insolation… an event with light rates (and/or the fringe areas within the precip shield)  is probably going to have some trouble accumulating on a lot of surfaces outside of higher elevations. Most guidance and ensembles are showing decent rates/amounts over a good part of our subforum. The NAM seems to be the least on board for a widespread heavier event in C-PA actually having the axis of heaviest QPF running the northern half Mid-Atlantic forum’s turf and also our southern tier. 12z was pretty nice, however the new 18z has the same axis but tightened up the good QPF. It seems like the biggest amounts in play for this event is probably going to reside in the 3-6” range. Again, rates are important.. especially with this being progged to be generally a daytime event. 

 

This was the post of the day!

So many great points, especially about how March snow can actually accumulate!

I laughed out loud and got some strange looks when I read your @canderson comment! Well done….

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, paweather said:

My prediction 3-4" Low end 5-6" high end

Most models agree with your call.

We are due for an over performing storm.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

I’m riding the Canadian models for the Wednesday event.

The Canadian sniffed out this event before any other model a few days ago and it has not wavered.

Here is the 18z RGEM.