Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 High of 47 here with ample sunshine throughout the day and minimal wind. Beautiful day to take the baby and the dog for a walk. Haven’t had many lately. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, canderson said: Man you keep your house COLD. @Itstrainingtimeneeds to step up. AC...Your not running yours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Looks like the 18Z GFS with a noticeably colder solution vs. the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 51 minutes ago, canderson said: That 16" in Texas sits directly over my parents. If that happens I'll run down Front Street naked and let @sauss06 chase me with a firetruck. Hey, @sauss06, you comfortable with junior here having these kind of fantasies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: Not bad! Almost none of that is snow south of Williamsport as to Susquehanna Valley stuff due to TT's issues with ice. But decent ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Almost none of that is snow south of Williamsport as to Susquehanna Valley stuff due to TT's issues with ice. But decent ice. Now don’t ruin my excitement Lol I’m sticking to the GFS colder 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greensnow Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 BGM .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 415 PM Update... Rain will change over to mostly snow across the Finger Lakes and along/north of the Thruway by dawn, and across an area roughly north of the NY-17 to I-88 corridor by late morning, with the cold front slowing down ahead of an incoming shortwave trough. The shallower cold air will continue to slowly move south and east, undercutting warmer air just aloft. This warm nose will become more entrenched as low level (925-700mb) flow backs more to the south. By late afternoon/early evening, snow will still be the main precip type roughly north of the 17/88 corridor, with a zone of mixed precipitation extending into the northern Tier of PA. The "battleground" (pardon the cliche) will be across the Southern Tier of NY, where a sharp gradient in snowfall amounts will end up taking shape. For example, some of the higher end snowfall amounts (8 to 12 inches) will sneak into northern Broome County, while the Tri-Cities will be in the mix zone, potentially with an unusual amount of sleet. The cold airmass moving in is fairly deep, with a freezing layer extending upwards of 2000 to 3000 feet AGL, which favors refreezing of precip (thus sleet vs freezing rain). The leading edge of the colder air mass should become more shallow as it slowly pushes south through complex terrain into NE PA Thursday night. The risk of freezing rain will be greatest in NE PA and into Sullivan County NY, but there is still considerable uncertainty in the cold air depth, and its southern extent. Parts of southern Luzerne County may not see freezing temperatures until the tail end of the event, while areas further north in Lackawanna and Wyoming Counties could tip over to sleet. Somewhere in between, a narrow strip of freezing rain amounts over a half inch are possible Thursday Night into Friday morning. For this reason, we`ve extended the Winter Storm Watch south and east again, where the icing risk has increased, but where timing is still on our side. We upgraded another row of counties in NY to a warning, where time is getting short, and the precip changeover will occur by midday tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 18Z GFS snow and frz map. Snow is quite a bit back from 12Z as to LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 2, 2022 Author Share Posted February 2, 2022 Just now, paweather said: Now don’t ruin my excitement Lol I’m sticking to the GFS colder 18z LOL, I am not ruining anything just reminding that TT snow maps are crap unless all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Hey, @sauss06, you comfortable with junior here having these kind of fantasies? He’s from Texas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 20 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: LOL, I am not ruining anything just reminding that TT snow maps are crap unless all snow. Understood I know what you were doing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, canderson said: Man you keep your house COLD. @Itstrainingtimeneeds to step up. Haha I normally keep heat around 68ºF or so in the main parts of the house and I can fire up the wood pellet fireplace to warm it up more without bumping up the regular heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 I see State College is late to the warning and advisory party again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 8 minutes ago, Voyager said: I see State College is late to the warning and advisory party again... "Pass the buck to the night crew." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Lots of people minimizing this threat. At some point, it's hard to ignore what the models are saying could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 27 minutes ago, Voyager said: I see State College is late to the warning and advisory party again... Typical for them. I wonder if their office has the least warnings and advisory issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: Lots of people minimizing this threat. At some point, it's hard to ignore what the models are saying could happen. I don't see how most of us can't end up with a WWA. Isn't the criteria 0.10"+ of ice accrual? Also, I absolutely would not rule out the ice developing on highways even after an inch of rain and temps in the 40s. It's been darn cold here for over two weeks and many single digit lows. The roads are not going to warm up sufficiently with one day of rain. Maybe they stay on top of it on the major roads, but any secondary or local roads will be vulnerable to a rapid freeze. It looks like the temp is going to drop below freezing around 5:00am. That's almost 2 hours of darkness while these conditions develop. I totally agree with you, @anotherman. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 1 hour ago, sauss06 said: He’s from Texas "And I don't see any horns on ya, so I guess that kinda narrows it down..." 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 14 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Typical for them. I wonder if their office has the least warnings and advisory issued. Yeah really. Every storm we are an island as PIT, BGM, and PHL usually ring us with advisories/warnings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Well, unfortunately the GFS has kind of caved with this run at least as far as pure snow is concerned. Here are the differences between yesterday's 18z output (imby) and today's... Yesterday the total storm qpf was 2.12". Today it is 1.83" Yesterday the total freezing rain was 0.63". Today it is 0.38". Yesterday the total ice accrual was 0.50". Today it is 0.33". Yesterday the snow accumulation was 5". Today it is 0.00". Today's run has slowed down the arrival of the sub-freezing temperatures by over 3 hours. Yesterday the freezing line reached me by 10:00pm. Today it is 1:00am. If this is how the end results play out I would still say that the GFS handled the storm very well. I'm amazed at how consistent it's been going all the way back to Sunday. Virtually every run from then until just now it has put out the same kind of precip distribution. At least that's my own take for Carlisle. Currently the temp is down to 36.0 degrees and the dew point is 31.0 degrees. We know we're not going below freezing tonight. I'm curious as to has far north the warm air makes it during the later part of tomorrow afternoon. My very tenacious snowpack is still out in my back yard and still measures 2". I can't see the top of the grass yet. I really do not mind snowmelt when it occurs with sunshine and mild temperatures. However, there is nothing worse than watching the white gold fade away while it's pouring rain out there with any temp over freezing. The higher the temp the worse I feel...haha. I'm fairly certain a new mantle will make it here before the end of winter. As usual we just need to be patient. Our turn will come. PS>>I'm not saying this to make any of the snowless peeps feel any worse than they already do. Obviously we can't control the weather and it will do whatever it wants regardless of how it affects us individually. We all cash in eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 58 minutes ago, anotherman said: Lots of people minimizing this threat. At some point, it's hard to ignore what the models are saying could happen. I will say that the people posting here (not MA) have just been discussing modeling with a combo of "past experiences". I agree with the Lancaster people in wondering aloud if they see anything but minor ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I will say that the people posting here (not MA) have just been discussing modeling with a combo of "past experiences". I agree with the Lancaster people in wondering aloud if they see anything but minor ice. Don't get me wrong, I hope none of the ice actually materializes. I'm just not sure how we ignore it if GFS/NAM continue to double down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 So if models keep showing major ice storm why haven't we at least gots wwa or a wsw yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 This will be essentially a nonevent for MDT and southeast CTP says. Lancaster gets no frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, canderson said: This will be essentially a nonevent for MDT and southeast CTP says. Lancaster gets no frozen precip. This pretty well aligns with my thinking. Not expecting much of anything frozen down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Don't get me wrong, I hope none of the ice actually materializes. I'm just not sure how we ignore it if GFS/NAM continue to double down. Yea, if the GFS (especially) were to be true, this is an historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: This pretty well aligns with my thinking. Not expecting much of anything frozen down this way. You are 56 degrees at 4AM Friday morning on the HRRR. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birdbean Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 12 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: This pretty well aligns with my thinking. Not expecting much of anything frozen down this way. At least Lancaster can hold on to the “least snow in the state” title awhile longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Per the HRRR, which I don't know how reliable it is at this range yet, I would be at 33 with plain rain at 6am when I roll out with the truck. At that time, I probably wouldn't be able to call the boss man and say the roads are bad and it's icy...because they probably won't be, so I'll have to roll, then get into the icy goods about an hour later. At this point, I hope the cold press is faster, and we go to ice about 3am, so that when I wake up, everything here is a skating rink, and I have a legitimate reason to stay home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: You are 56 degrees at 4AM Friday morning on the HRRR. Crazy. Haha well I’m not quite buying that but yeah, not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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