Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Not officially but these transient events hardly ever - ever - work out for the LSV. 

#DAMNTRUTH

 

[pasnownut]

31 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Storm 1 is not a lost cause. It’s Monday.

i agree w/ canderson that timing rarely works for cold press wrt events like this.  That said, the way to the promise land is for the boundary keep pressing (like 18z NAM is ticking away at), and get boundary far enough south that we dont need to wait.  Also would like to see the SLP slow a bit, which give us time for boundary to eek south.  

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

i agree w/ canderson that timing rarely works for cold press wrt events like this.  That said, the way to the promise land is for the boundary keep pressing (like 18z NAM is ticking away at), and get boundary far enough south that we dont need to wait.  Also would like to see the SLP slow a bit, which give us time for boundary to eek south.  

Bingo. And that's my biggest hang up in a progressive pattern. Nothing is moving slowly right now. 

[medmax]

I’m out for the season. My snow weenie has gone flaccid.

[medmax]

OTS, too far inland, over and over again ad nauseum.

[paweather]

28 minutes ago, medmax said:

OTS, too far inland, over and over again ad nauseum.

Did you Loki at the 18z

[Bubbler86]

9 minutes ago, paweather said:

Did you Loki at the 18z

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You got your wife to capture the moment 

[medmax]

Did you Loki at the 18z

Don’t mess with my meltdown bro

[GrandmasterB]

2 hours ago, medmax said:

I’m out for the season. My snow weenie has gone flaccid.

See ya at 0Z!

[paweather]

1 hour ago, Bubbler86 said:

Yep you got it!

[CarlislePaWx]

Why is no one talking about the improvements in snow for our area on the 18z?  There was a noteworthy increase that also pushed quite a bit southward.

Also, if this depiction comes true we will have a major ice storm that precedes the sleet then snow.  MDT receives 0.84" of freezing rain that has an ice accretion of 0.38", which would be pretty substantial for around our area.  Here are the 18z maps:

First, the freezing rain accumulation:

That's a lot of rain with temps below freezing.  Next up is the ice accretion map:

The approximate time for the freezing rain period is starting around 7:00pm Thursday northwest lsv to around 9:00pm southeast lsv.  It's all over in less than six hours with the freezing rain transitioning over to sleet in the wee hours and then over to snow a few hours later, followed by the much-improved snow maps:

Here's 10:1

and here's Kuchera:

The snow actually falls for nearly 15 hours before ending around midnight Friday evening.  A very long duration event in total.

Also, once the temp drops to 32 it then proceeds to plunge pretty quickly, dropping to 20 degrees before dawn and then remaining around 20 degrees for the rest of the snow portion.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Why is no one talking about the improvements in snow for our area on the 18z?  There was a noteworthy increase that also pushed quite a bit southward.

Also, if this depiction comes true we will have a major ice storm that precedes the sleet then snow.  MDT receives 0.84" of freezing rain that has an ice accretion of 0.38", which would be pretty substantial for around our area.  Here are the 18z maps:

First, the freezing rain accumulation:

That's a lot of rain with temps below freezing.  Next up is the ice accretion map:

The approximate time for the freezing rain period is starting around 7:00pm Thursday northwest lsv to around 9:00pm southeast lsv.  It's all over in less than six hours with the freezing rain transitioning over to sleet in the wee hours and then over to snow a few hours later, followed by the much-improved snow maps:

Here's 10:1

and here's Kuchera:

The snow actually falls for nearly 15 hours before ending around midnight Friday evening.  A very long duration event in total.

Great post!

I was just getting ready to post about it. I’ll see if I can add anything to your thoughts soon.

Looks great & hopefully it gets more support at 0z tonight.

This one be a very interesting & long duration event if it went like this run.

 

[CarlislePaWx]

6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Great post!

I was just getting ready to post about it. I’ll see if I can add anything to your thoughts soon.

Looks great & hopefully it gets more support at 0z tonight.

This one be a very interesting & long duration event if it went like this run.

 

Haha!  Before I decided to create the post I checked to see if you were online!  When you weren't, I figured I could beat you to the punch...lol.

[Chris78]

40 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Why is no one talking about the improvements in snow for our area on the 18z?  There was a noteworthy increase that also pushed quite a bit southward.

Also, if this depiction comes true we will have a major ice storm that precedes the sleet then snow.  MDT receives 0.84" of freezing rain that has an ice accretion of 0.38", which would be pretty substantial for around our area.  Here are the 18z maps:

First, the freezing rain accumulation:

That's a lot of rain with temps below freezing.  Next up is the ice accretion map:

The approximate time for the freezing rain period is starting around 7:00pm Thursday northwest lsv to around 9:00pm southeast lsv.  It's all over in less than six hours with the freezing rain transitioning over to sleet in the wee hours and then over to snow a few hours later, followed by the much-improved snow maps:

Here's 10:1

and here's Kuchera:

The snow actually falls for nearly 15 hours before ending around midnight Friday evening.  A very long duration event in total.

Also, once the temp drops to 32 it then proceeds to plunge pretty quickly, dropping to 20 degrees before dawn and then remaining around 20 degrees for the rest of the snow portion.

If the GFS is correct it would be a memorable event.

Let's hope some other models jump aboard at 00z.

I didn't think I'd ever say this but I'd rather have the gfs on our side than the euro if I had to pick one.

[Blizzard of 93]

16 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

If the GFS is correct it would be a memorable event.

Let's hope some other models jump aboard at 00z.

I didn't think I'd ever say this but I'd rather have the gfs on our side than the euro if I had to pick one.

At this point, the GFS has been doing very well this Winter on most storms. The Euro & Ukie both have had 18z like solutions over the last couple of days.

Hopefully we get some consensus by tomorrow.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z Euro at the end of the 90 hour run ticked very slightly in the right direction for Friday.

12z top vs. 18z bottom 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 18z GFS had the follow up storm Sunday night into Monday that delivers a few more inches of snow in the LSV.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Here is the 2 event combined snow by Monday am per the 18z GFS.

 

[MAG5035]

Yea this event looks like a pretty big mess incoming. We will warm up especially Wed/Thur ahead and during the first portion of this system. Def not going to be a tremendous warm-up but some of the southern tier probably gets to 50  or so at some point (sufficient to get the AC fired up down there lol). Big thing I’ve noticed is despite the modeling differing and switching around with how it presses mixed and snowfall into the state, they’ve been building/pushing a stronger high more directly to our north. Initially it looked like the main body of high pressure was going to send the cold southward into the central US and not immediately push east as much. But now we have pretty much everything building 1040+ mb high pressure eastward just above Lake Huron roughly centered in the Ontario/Quebec border region. There’s way too much cold available in this pattern with a stronger high positioned like that, so I’m not buying an all rain event from this, or thunderstorms or whatever. 

There’s also no low that really cuts west of us on models/ensembles now, so this has tended a bit more progressive.  The big question I’m considering right now isn’t whether this cold presses and changes things over to a mix for at least a good portion of folks in here. It’s if we can get the depth of cold necessary in time to turn to any accumulating snow of substance. I do think any really significant snow chances generally favor NW and maybe some of NC PA at the moment, but I also think everyone sees some amount of ice/sleet as well.. potentially significant amounts for some. The setup screams favorability for a long swath of significant ice/sleet along the frontal boundary.

[CarlislePaWx]

18 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here is the 2 event combined snow by Monday am per the 18z GFS.

 

Since I didn't know the snow output from storm 1 is roughly twice what storm 2 delivers.  More than half the forum is 6+ for the 2-storm total.  This looks good!  I don't know why frownie faces have been moping around here today.  lol

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP had this posted today.

 

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-011330-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
826 AM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Accumulating snow and icy mix could result in hazardous travel
conditions Wednesday night through Friday.

[Bubbler86]

0Z Nam has some FRZ Wed night.

[pasnownut]

59 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Since I didn't know the snow output from storm 1 is roughly twice what storm 2 delivers.  More than half the forum is 6+ for the 2-storm total.  This looks good!  I don't know why frownie faces have been moping around here today.  lol

It's been a challenging year for tracking vs Mag's season to date totals...

I like what mag posted, and as I suggested earlier, the key is to get that boundary as far south prior to go time.  I'm largely in trouble here in the LSV w/ some back end taint to snow, but were I in true CTP to NW'sers, I'd be watching this like a hawk.  With the qpf and trajectory that is shown, whomever sits on the cold side, is going to be in for a nice event.  

[Ruin]

I don't see a double even happening at this moment. Just the trend I could see all rain or a dusting of snow lol

[canderson]

GFS is a bit colder for all of PA but still a huge ice and sleet fest it appears. 

[canderson]

If only it was mostly (or even a quarter) of snow …. I believe I’m reading thermals right and most is slept and zr, not actually snow  

[CarlislePaWx]

23 minutes ago, canderson said:

If only it was mostly (or even a quarter) of snow …. I believe I’m reading thermals right and most is slept and zr, not actually snow  

 

One correction is that the TT snowmap above does not include any freezing rain.  Only snow and/or sleet.  Based on the snow-only map I'm about to show, one can infer that a huge amount of sleet is going to be all over the southern tier.

Here's 10:1 snow only

And, here's Kuchera...

When compared to 18z there isn't much difference for accumulations of snow close to MDT.  0Z run has less snow down close to the m/d border.

Here's the freezing rain:

It looks like freezing rain ends around or by 4:00am Friday followed by the sleet storm. Freezing rain qpf a little lighter by about 0.15" at MDT;  I'll try to give a rough estimate for the start time of pure snow...but first the ice accretion map:

Still about a third of an inch of accrued ice...pretty substantial, especially if sleet and snow are going to follow behind.

Here's the map that shows the time around when the conversion from sleet to snow takes place:

4:00am northern lsv counties:

Southern counties follow a few hours later by around 9:00am; next map is time of first snow reaching MDT, around 6:00am...

Finally, 10:00am it has reached the southern border counties:

Based on all of these maps showing the transition of p-types it appears that there isn't a major sleet storm despite the portrayal by TT map.  Looks like no more than a few hours between zr and snow.

[CarlislePaWx]

Here's one last map to send you off to weenie land with pleasant dreams:

I forgot to take a look at the second follow up storm.  We can dub it the super bowl snow!  The timing of this has the meat of the second storm occuring at game time but not finishing until nearly midnight.  Here it is added to the Friday storm.  Around MDT it doubles the total meaning the 2nd storm delivers about the same or just a little more (an inch?).  Where the real difference lies is m/d counties, esp Lanco where nearly all of the snow depicted here is just from the Sunday storm.

[Blizzard of 93]

Here are some to me stamps for our region from the 0z GFS for Thursday night into Friday showing the transition from freezing rain to sleet to snow.