Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Mount Joy Snowman]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

At this point it's fair to say (I think) that the GFS > Euro. 

Not sure 3 years ago I'd ever believe that...

Yeah I'm pretty stunned myself.  I recall back in the day the Euro was always considered the top dog and would typically lead the way, particularly with winter coastal storms, no?  Just seems to have really fallen off but I would need to see hard data on that to be more certain.

[paweather]

Well close the books on this one and don't know when the next one will come

[Mount Joy Snowman]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

So funny story - scoring this season shows the Euro is the best model.  There is a link in the NE forum. 

Funny I saw this right after my post about needing hard data.  I totally believe it, as often times our perception and reality can be far off.  Perhaps the Euro has still been the best with mean SLP placement and things like that but has also struggled more with patterns that would typically yield us our best storms, hence why the perception of it (as @Itstrainingtime noted) is somewhat diminished around these parts.  Just food for thought.  But it certainly has had more high profile misses lately.

[Burghblizz]

1 hour ago, KPITSnow said:

Look, I complain, but my area has had like 1 storm in the past decade that surpassed a foot. How many has DC had?

We quite literally just had DCs annual snowfall in the last 9 days. People in my neighborhood are running out of places to put it. And 3 9-12” storms in 4 years, and like 8 6” storms in 4 years

But go ahead. Move a mile from DCA. Post often. 

Or go to Columbus. They ain’t seen 6” in 6 years.

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Funny I saw this right after my post about needing hard data.  I totally believe it, as often times our perception and reality can be far off.  Perhaps the Euro has still been the best with mean SLP placement and things like that but has also struggled more with patterns that would typically yield us our best storms, hence why the perception of it (as @Itstrainingtime noted) is somewhat diminished around these parts.  Just food for thought.  But it certainly has had more high profile misses lately.

See, that's my point. We've had 2 storms this season that really had the potential to deliver significant snowfall. Granted, the second of these 2 hasn't occurred yet, but assuming that it does miss, both times it was the Euro who suckered us in only to cave to the GFS with a final sucker punch finale. 

[Santa Clause]

15 minutes ago, paweather said:

Well close the books on this one and don't know when the next one will come

Yup this was the big dog we were looking for, but really slipped away fast.

[Bubbler86]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My post was a personal observation not based on any data, so there's that for sure. But...which model has disappointed this subforum the most this winter season?

It's the Euro and it isn't close. 

Those official model scoring scenarios, used by the Government, just use placement of fronts and pressure points vs. ground truth on weather.   I can' seem to find it but there is another system that picks random sports around the country and uses actual vs. front locations as a scoring method.  They just grade the Globals.  Last I looked, GFS was one, Icon, 2 and Euro 3.  UK was 4th. 

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Those official model scoring scenarios, used by the Government, just use placement of fronts and pressure points vs. ground truth on weather.   I can' seem to find it but there is another system that picks random sports around the country and uses actual vs. front locations as a scoring method.  They just grade the Globals.  Last I looked, GFS was one, Icon, 2 and Euro 3.  UK was 4th. 

Thanks for that. Makes sense. 

[pasnownut]

Was out on client meetings, and it sounds like I missed a whole lotta nothing....just like my snow bucket....

Seeing the chatter about the Euro vs GFS, and yeah GFS (if this verifies, and probably will) has been pretty darn steady...and not in a good way for us.

 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Thanks for that. Makes sense. 

LOL, random spots not random sports.  Wish I had more time to spell check. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

LOL, random spots not random sports.  Wish I had more time to spell check. 

I enjoyed both iterations of said word. LOL

[Mount Joy Snowman]

17 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

See, that's my point. We've had 2 storms this season that really had the potential to deliver significant snowfall. Granted, the second of these 2 hasn't occurred yet, but assuming that it does miss, both times it was the Euro who suckered us in only to cave to the GFS with a final sucker punch finale. 

I hear ya man, I hear ya.  Very frustrating, but also perhaps these high profile misses are distorting the larger picture for us.  

[pawatch]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My post was a personal observation not based on any data, so there's that for sure. But...which model has disappointed this subforum the most this winter season?

It's the Euro and it isn't close. 

And Nam is still king  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z NAM removes any and all snow chances for PA.  Not that this confirmation was needed but there it is.  On to the rain-maker next week 

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

18z NAM removes any and all snow chances for PA.  Not that this confirmation was needed but there it is.  On to the rain-maker next week 

To that point...

@canderson - time to move your weekend plans to Cape Hatteras, my friend:

[Itstrainingtime]

...and just like that, the weenies in Hampton Roads and NE North Carolina have awakened again! 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

...and just like that, the weenies in Hampton Roads and NE North Carolina have awakened again! 

Haha how about it.  I mean, I'm not going to take one off-hour NAM run to the bank but if even places like coastal NJ and RI/MA get little to nothing out of this then, yikes.

[Itstrainingtime]

14 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha how about it.  I mean, I'm not going to take one off-hour NAM run to the bank but if even places like coastal NJ and RI/MA get little to nothing out of this then, yikes.

I was having fun and not fully expecting that to be the final chapter of the story.

Wasn't it the Ukie that's been consistently a fish storm to this point? 

[canderson]

My uncle has a boat at St. Michaels. Maybe we can take it out to the middle of the Atlantic! 

[Bubbler86]

38 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

18z NAM removes any and all snow chances for PA.  Not that this confirmation was needed but there it is.  On to the rain-maker next week 

Bad look for the Nam this time around if this does not turn around and change.  Terrible depiction just 24-36 hours ago.  The Euro is not far behind with the badness though. 

 

-Signed,

Nam Sympathizer 

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

My uncle has a boat at St. Michaels. Maybe we can take it out to the middle of the Atlantic! 

Scotland might be getting into the game before we know it.  

[Bubbler86]

23 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I was having fun and not fully expecting that to be the final chapter of the story.

Wasn't it the Ukie that's been consistently a fish storm to this point? 

This guy should be the motto of when the story of models being wrong all the time will come to an end.  Maybe too obscure.  

 

[GrandmasterB]

Just a little different than the Euro!

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Just a little different than the Euro!

Zoom it in a little to show how blessed we are east of the river:

[Itstrainingtime]

35 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

This guy should be the motto of when the story of models being wrong all the time will come to an end.  Maybe too obscure.  

 

You're the LSV jackpot on the 18z GFS. LOL

[Bubbler86]

8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

You're the LSV jackpot on the 18z GFS. LOL

It actually skips around me and hammers Cashtown.    Plows out (sparks). LOL

[Ruin]

We need to start holding the national weather service accountable yeah this is going to be slightly ranty. But think about it logically for a minute how often are the models actually write and I'm not just talking about three or four days out I'm talking about the day before storm. I swear to God models were more accurate before all these upgrades in 2000 and 2005 or so models I would say 50/50 would get it right now it's like every single storm they show even the day before we're supposed to get it oh all of a sudden all models show it's going to jog 150 to 200 miles east. Does anyone have an actual percentage of what they're right about I mean to show Pennsylvania from Central to East and most of Maryland having 48 or 12 in and then all of a sudden now nothing every single model shifted from a slightly Coast hugger now to out the sea in a way. I mean think about it for a second if we were wrong that much at our jobs you would have been fired lol

[Itstrainingtime]

8 minutes ago, Ruin said:

We need to start holding the national weather service accountable yeah this is going to be slightly ranty. But think about it logically for a minute how often are the models actually write and I'm not just talking about three or four days out I'm talking about the day before storm. I swear to God models were more accurate before all these upgrades in 2000 and 2005 or so models I would say 50/50 would get it right now it's like every single storm they show even the day before we're supposed to get it oh all of a sudden all models show it's going to jog 150 to 200 miles east. Does anyone have an actual percentage of what they're right about I mean to show Pennsylvania from Central to East and most of Maryland having 48 or 12 in and then all of a sudden now nothing every single model shifted from a slightly Coast hugger now to out the sea in a way. I mean think about it for a second if we were wrong that much at our jobs you would have been fired lol

Trying to read and interpret this - what forecasters have been way off? The only one that I've posted discussion from has clearly said since last weekend that this was NOT going to be storm for us. The chances of getting snow from the coastal were always low...for reasons that many on here talked about. Also, given how many moving pieces there are flying around, models aren't going to lock into a set outcome days and days in advance. I won't speak for anyone but me, but at no point did I "expect" to get anything from the coastal storm. 

I haven't heard or read any met (worth their salt) predict a significant snowstorm in our area. Not saying it hasn't happened, but the ones I follow have been downplaying this from day #1 and haven't wavered one bit. 

[dcfox1]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Trying to read and interpret this - what forecasters have been way off? The only one that I've posted discussion from has clearly said since last weekend that this was NOT going to be storm for us. The chances of getting snow from the coastal were always low...for reasons that many on here talked about. Also, given how many moving pieces there are flying around, models aren't going to lock into a set outcome days and days in advance. I won't speak for anyone but me, but at no point did I "expect" to get anything from the coastal storm. 

I haven't heard or read any met (worth their salt) predict a significant snowstorm in our area. Not saying it hasn't happened, but the ones I follow have been downplaying this from day #1 and haven't wavered one bit. 

Agree

[Albedoman]

18 minutes ago, Ruin said:

We need to start holding the national weather service accountable yeah this is going to be slightly ranty. But think about it logically for a minute how often are the models actually write and I'm not just talking about three or four days out I'm talking about the day before storm. I swear to God models were more accurate before all these upgrades in 2000 and 2005 or so models I would say 50/50 would get it right now it's like every single storm they show even the day before we're supposed to get it oh all of a sudden all models show it's going to jog 150 to 200 miles east. Does anyone have an actual percentage of what they're right about I mean to show Pennsylvania from Central to East and most of Maryland having 48 or 12 in and then all of a sudden now nothing every single model shifted from a slightly Coast hugger now to out the sea in a way. I mean think about it for a second if we were wrong that much at our jobs you would have been fired lol

 I blame one thing and one thing only- the lack of empirical data over the Pacific Ocean in a very progressive west to east weather pattern. Not enough buoys, balloons and flight to gather information to ingest into all of the models to make deterministic and more accurate locations of upper air winds and pressures. Surface precip maps do not control the weather , upper winds do plain and simple. The more equipment we have to get temps, pressure and wind speeds the more accurate the models will be.   My solution to this mess:  Launch drones in the areas of the pacific ocean (the great void)  where we we currently lack the available data  and design these drones to exceed 50,000 sq ft. the capability to  launch weather balloons and gather air pressure humidity and temps throughout the profile of the atmosphere.  If companies can produce a drone to deliver a frickling amazon package, they can make them to fly over the pacific ocean with the appropriate weather data gathering equipment. Something is better than nothing