paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18z GFS total miss ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Newman said: All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows I just saw that Kyle is comparing this to the boxing day storm. I literally said the same thing this morning. Right now he's thinking 1-3" locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That’s 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS has definitely shifted towards the Euro camp. All good signs. Trying not to get too worried being on the western side of this. Then again, I'm about as close to CTPs eastern limit as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: That’s 12Z Poof. Thanks. Too many windows open at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I thought the end result was going to be a lot better on the 18Z GFS. The trends were noticeably better early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Attempt #2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I thought the end result was going to be a lot better on the 18Z GFS. The trends were noticeably better early on.The important thing is that it trended towards the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I expect 00z will be even better with western extent of snowfall.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yep, agreed on both points! GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels. Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later. Which wouldn't work. Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast. The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase. Let's see if we can keep that going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Yep, agreed on both points! GFS did not take a step back and I thought improved in the upper levels. Other thing I also noticed is that a few days ago the storm wasn't really developing until at our latitude or later. Which wouldn't work. Now the models are strengthening it around the outer banks as it moves northeast. The trend has been to strengthen the storm further south...I'm guessing because of an earlier/cleaner phase. Let's see if we can keep that going! Exactly, great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 20 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I expect 00z will be even better with western extent of snowfall. . I didn’t see the 12z Euro Control posted. It’s only available to me at 10-1 ratio. It won’t take much to get more of the Susquehanna Valley involved. We have 3 days to reel this back a little more west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I didn’t see the 12z Euro Control posted. It’s only available to me at 10-1 ratio. It won’t take much to get more of the Susquehanna Valley involved. We have 3 days to reel this back a little more west. Do it Blizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Anyone have the 18Z Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jt17 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: Anyone have the 18Z Euro? Rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Dang was the euro bad ? It's dead in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 18Z Euro. It may still be snowing lightly in our hood at this point as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm missing 18 hours of that map (vs. 12Z). I just stole it from the Mid-Atl forum. I don't have Euro access Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: 18Z Euro. It may still be snowing lightly in our hood at this point as well. Yes, still more to go after this. The 18z Euro only goes out to 90 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Here are a few panels of the 18z Euro, which was very similar to its 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I’m one step closer to going to Arcadia to witness this. My friend is going tomorrow to see if he can get power/water restored (it’s winterized( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here are a few panels of the 18z Euro, which was very similar to its 12z run. We need a touch further west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 18z EPS says the the LSV is still in the game. Several ensemble members are taking the inner track more towards the coast and to the west of the mean. If that western cluster of lows ends up winning out as the final track, then we are in business back here. Some of these ensemble members have 960’s lows south of our latitude! This is far from over… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Here is the 18z EPS snow map, which is similar to the 12z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The 18z Euro Control run is impressive. It’s not far from delivering a major storm to the LSV. As it is, it still delivers low end Warning level snow to the LSV at 10-1 ratios. It has the low pressure at 964 at our latitude off of the coast of NJ. With this much deepening, I would think the deform band would expand even further west than depicted on this run. So much potential, we just need a little bump west…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Here is a frame from the height of the Euro showing the deform wrap around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Here is the Euro Control precip & snow at 10-1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nice seeing a cluster of lows to the west of the mean. As pointed out by Blizz93, some of those are strong and close to the coast. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 43 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the Euro Control precip & snow at 10-1. Yeah that wouldnt take much of a shift West to get a bunch of folks in the game. I wont be up for the Euro, but were countin on you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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