Superstorm Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This ain’t done coming left.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just give me a couple Euro ensemble lows right off of the Cheasapeake. I'm not asking for a lot here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: This ain’t done coming left. . From your lips to Mama Nature's ears! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 CTP changing its tune better hoist WSW Thursday Night A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 22. Chance of precipitation is 30%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: This ain’t done coming left. . I hope your right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 45 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Wait...are you saying that your hot air is a result of Trixie? You just won the thread...lmao! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 30 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Ji would always pull that out back in the day when it was the only model left that gave him what he wanted. LOL I would never post it as a hail mary (Hail Kelce?) but its really not that much unlike the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Snowblower ready! Beer ready! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: Snowblower ready! Beer ready! So now the L post means Low and not loss, right? :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: So now the L post means Low and not loss, right? :-) You got it! HAHA! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Guys it's not going to snow. Sorry. (if anyone can't figure out what I'm doing .... ) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, canderson said: Guys it's not going to snow. Sorry. (if anyone can't figure out what I'm doing .... ) Beer me 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 FWIW the Ukie has wanted no part of this storm having a meaningful impact on the interior. Model wars developing..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I'm ready to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours because that was going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, GrandmasterB said: I'm ready to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours because that was going to get it done. It was aiming to be a crowd pleaser. Such a tease.... Nicely tucked at 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: I'm ready to extrapolate the NAM past 84 hours because that was going to get it done. We are already plowing at the 84 hour point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are already plowing at the 84 hour point. Even Pittsburgh would be happy with 4-6 even if out east they get 12+ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I 95 special brothas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: We are already plowing at the 84 hour point. All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Newman said: All the greats have the overrunning, I think much of central PA could see 3-6" from just the overrunning. Once the coastal takes over, that's when the shadow effect and sinking air ends up over central PA... but before that, some could still see advisory or low-end warning level snows To me, it's the key here vs. hoping for this to track along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 LOL. When the central/northern posters start throwing out the congrats for the southern crew at 90 hours out, that's a great sign it's not done trending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: LOL. When the central/northern posters start throwing out the congrats for the southern crew at 90 hours out, that's a great sign it's not done trending! The reverse physiology and self sustaining feel goodness posts of AMWx. Ha. Every "at least we are still tracking it" post falls under this category as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is the run that I'd really like the GFS to trend 30-50 miles towards the Euro. If it holds or goes east we can probably say the Euro is overamped. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, GrandmasterB said: This is the run that I'd really like the GFS to trend 30-50 miles towards the Euro. If it holds or goes east we can probably say the Euro is overamped. I don’t know about being over amped on the EURO we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 MU Weather thoughts...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 HH drink time I’ll buy everyone a drink if we get what we want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 MU Weather thoughts......Oh man, he compared it to the boxing day blizzard. That would be brutal to have that happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: MU Weather thoughts...... That was the storm they cancelled work for the day the previous evening and it turned out to be partly cloudy and pleasant (ie not too cold) IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yeah no Boxing Day storm please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The eastern third of PA is very much in the game for direct impacts from the coastal low, and for the state as a whole it may not be the all or nothing proposition it was looking like a few days ago if the coastal ultimately develops too far east for most in here. Models are pretty solid now on showing general snowfall developing across most the state Friday as the phasing northern energy drops down and attending arctic boundary presses. I Mentioned this in two posts on Sunday, even on the first post during the day when the coastal aspect of this wasn’t anywhere near close to C-PA and I was still skeptical on a bigger storm happening at all. If the coastal trends closer like the Euro this setup could help in terms of a more expansive precip shield (even though the axis of heaviest would probably tend to be just east of most of the subforum) What’s ultimately changed is the timeframe of this phasing occurring (faster). This was really well explained in the Mount Holly AFD that was shared in here first thing this morning. The faster ejection and phase presumably keeps the western ridge axis in a much more favorable positioning for us and not too far east. This is what changed the game with this and now that all the models are on board for the bigger storm happening this could absolutely trend better. We’ve been running a progressive pattern so it wouldn’t be too much to see this speed up a bit more. It also could trend back the wrong way too, let me be clear. The shortwave timing is very important. At any rate, for any thought of the Euro being over amped the 18z NAM in “guru” range said hold my beer lol. There was a large difference between 12z Euro at 90 and the 18z NAM at 84hr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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