Ruin Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Thought it would be more active tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: You’d probably get more speed going down Sandy Ridge Mountain from P-burg to the Snappy’s in Bald Eagle lol. I'd like to not die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Here's this mornings Mount Holly AFD regarding the weekend storm. It's a shame we're stuck with CTP. All eyes remain on the late week period with the potential for a strong coastal storm to affect portions of the Eastern Seaboard. In short, there has not been much change to the forecast philosophy nor the gridded forecast. Overnight guidance, minus the 0z EC, generally favored a further offshore and less impactful evolution from this storm versus yesterday`s 12z runs. But at this stage, it is difficult to say whether these runs are any more reliable than those of yesterday, which generally showed a higher impact event. The storm threat remains, and we will be continuing to monitor. In terms of the technicals, it is pretty remarkable the sensitivity that operational guidance is showing to what the placement of a shortwave trough moving out of western Canada will be come late Thursday. There are other factors in play, and it will be a complex evolution, but that shortwave is the big one. It will be somewhere over the Southwest US by Thursday evening, but how far west it is will determine whether that shortwave gets left behind, or whether it phases with additional energy downstream. Much of the 24.12z guidance was more aggressive in ejecting that shortwave faster and further east, resulting in an earlier phase and major winter weather impacts for the mid-Atlantic. But the trend in most of the 24.18z and 25.00z guidance was for that shortwave to hang back more, resulting in an incomplete phase or a phase too late for much impact. The 25.0z EC was an exception, and shows what could happen in a faster phase scenario. These sort of fluctuations are common at this lead time, and will likely continue today. I hesitate to speculate too much on which outcome is more likely. However, will reiterate that the pattern does have similarities to past events where models displayed a right of track bias in the 3-5 day range. So if nothing else am definitely not inclined to write it off based on some of the more eastward 0z runs. Think we will probably start to see model solutions stabilize and converge towards tonight or tomorrow as shortwave energy is better sampled. For now, more generic messaging remains prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The 0z Euro was the best of the overnight runs to bring decent snow to the LSV while heavy snow gets to Philly, NYC & New England. We have a few days to move the track 50 to 100 miles west to get better snow to the Susquehanna Valley if we get better phasing of all of the pieces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Here is the 0z Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Picked up 0.3” snow overnight. Snow flurries this morning 28 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Well it looks like a L for the weekend what is next? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 21 minutes ago, paweather said: Well it looks like a L for the weekend what is next? You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude! It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg. Chin up paweather! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude! It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg. Chin up paweather! Yep agreed we can still hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The heavier qpf knows exactly where the coast is. Still .10 to .25 for all the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the 0z Euro snow map. That map is painful - it looks almost EXACTLY like the Boxing day Blizzard in 2010. In fact, Lancaster was projected to get 3-6" from that storm, but most areas of the county were left with flurries while NYC's suburbs had over 30" of wind-driven snow. If someone has a map from that storm and can post it beside the image above...the similarities would be striking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: The heavier qpf knows exactly where the coast is. Still .10 to .25 for all the state Just enough for a sloppy mess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 46 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: You can't weenie wishcast a nor' easter with that attitude! It's still close enough to pray for small trends at least for those of us east of Harrisburg. Chin up paweather! Absolutely. No matter where this ends up...still plenty of time for this to move around a bit. One thing this event has is that it has trended back west in the last 2 days, and not OTS like the last few, so there is something different about this one. Does is stop today, or continue eeking towards us, we'll find out soon. IF that ULL dives in a tad sooner, it can make a notable difference in trajectory as it comes up at us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not so much as a stray flurry here yesterday, not that I was expecting anything. Friday looks like some extreme morning cold, followed by scattered snow showers from the frontal passage, and then the coastal likely slides off below us. Hoping for some NW trends to bring meaningful precip back into eastern zones of the forum. Wouldn't bet on it but not ruling it out either. Today and tomorrow's runs crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Not so much as a stray flurry here yesterday, not that I was expecting anything. Friday looks like some extreme morning cold, followed by scattered snow showers from the frontal passage, and then the coastal likely slides off below us. Hoping for some NW trends to bring meaningful precip back into eastern zones of the forum. Wouldn't bet on it but not ruling it out either. Today and tomorrow's runs crucial. You nailed it. Very well stated...every word. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, paweather said: Well it looks like a L for the weekend what is next? Warmth 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Atomixwx said: Warmth Yeah probably still got a chance this weekend I should not have said L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, paweather said: Yeah probably still got a chance this weekend I should not have said L. I read your post and thought you meant the L was coming/closer to shore for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Still don't see a real chance the weekend system moves west enough to get anyone here within anything plowable. This is a hallmark SNE special - something they've not had in a few years seemingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: I read your post and thought you meant the L was coming/closer to shore for the weekend. LOL Yeah I can see how you took that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Yesterday was well modeled for our area to be a zero sum flake total. Canderson saw like 20 and thats 20 more than he should have got. It's definitely been a challenging year, and we've sure have the fail part down pretty well...but like said so often, anyone that says fail, is right 70% of the time....without even looking at a map. And that takes no talent/skill whatsoever. This is a weather board, and the fun for some of us is to discuss (good and bad). This winter has been a great opportunity to learn (even if it's just another way to fail). Dont forget, we've also had years where "it wants to snow" in less than stellar patterns, and they've puzzled us in a good way. That's the fun of this. Here's to hoping for a good nooner set of runs, and if not...so be it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 For those that still want to track.... RGEM and NAM dont look horrible for Friday. Were I to extrapolate, HH Friday night has it snowing for eastern 1/2 of state as arctic boundary approaches and looks to interact w/ coastal. Does coastal pop n save us...dunno, but like I said, its something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Icon trended better out to 90, but as coastal pops, its too late for this forum. Verbatim a little light snow and then we salute the eastern Jersey and NE folks for their win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS nice light snow hit on Friday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS a bit NW to these eyes but still not going to get it done. Baby steps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Long Island E NE (Boston) getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, paweather said: GFS nice light snow hit on Friday yep at 84 it is slightly west and 90 it carries that same theme. Precip panels responded well to interaction w/ arctic boundary. I think if one sets reasonable expectations, we might eek out our first legit WWA or low end (easters) Warning event if we can keep this tracking a bit further west. Any better interaction w/ arctic boundary likely gives mood snows for many here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 @96 and 102 it is about 100 miles W of 6z. Thats what we need to see. IF we get a couple more ticks W, its a nice event for many here. Not saying its happening, but its the trend we need. 500's look notably better (not there yet), but sharper/more neg tilt. I'll take this as a good step. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS definitely keeping the door open. 2-4" east of the river without much precip from the coastal. Still 3+ days out. I know NE gets hammered, but I'm not tossing a moderate event just because I'm not jacked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, GrandmasterB said: GFS definitely keeping the door open. 2-4" east of the river without much precip from the coastal. Still 3+ days out. I know NE gets hammered, but I'm not tossing a moderate event just because I'm not jacked. 100% agree. 2-4 IS a big win for many in LSV. I'll gladly take in hopes that the next one...or one after that...whatevs....gets me in the jackzone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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