canderson Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I’m in a WWA but my grid forecast calls for less than half an inch. I’m not even expecting a coating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 31 minutes ago, canderson said: I’m in a WWA but my grid forecast calls for less than half an inch. I’m not even expecting a coating. Yes! Thanks, this usually means that we are going to over perform on an event when you make these doom & gloom posts! Thanks sir! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Here is a CTP map from this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is a CTP map from this evening. Looks like 1-2 inches of snow over Canderson’s house! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This place was dead today. Come on! We are not the only place getting shafted by the weekend storm. The Euro sucked everyone in and then crapped on their dreams. I still think we have a shot in the next two weeks for a bigger storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 So if nearly all the short range models are showing less that one inch, where is CTP getting a 1-3 range for my location? How much we get and when it stops will determine where I run tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 39 minutes ago, anotherman said: This place was dead today. Come on! We are not the only place getting shafted by the weekend storm. The Euro sucked everyone in and then crapped on their dreams. I still think we have a shot in the next two weeks for a bigger storm. Exactly…lots of potential over the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 MDT normal snow through today is 10.4 inches. Today MDT is sitting at 10.0 inches of snow. If MDT gets even 1 inch of snow tomorrow morning, they will be back above normal again for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Topped out at 47 today. Currently sitting at 37/25. Putting my “I’ll be happy with that” total at 2” for tomorrow morning. Good luck to all southerners! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 7 hours ago, paweather said: Another L Down 10 at halftime. Ive never wanted somebody to lose their season tickets so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I don't know how much I'll ultimately end up with...but surprisingly I'm already down below freezing at 31.3 degrees. Guess I don't have to worry about the initial "mush" NWS was speaking of. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: I don't know how much I'll ultimately end up with...but surprisingly I'm already down below freezing at 31.3 degrees. Guess I don't have to worry about the initial "mush" NWS was speaking of. lol Just read CTP's disco, and they also are not worried about losing much to boundary layer issues, as the cold is pressing and should cool column sufficiently. Hope thats the case. I'll be happy w/ 2 or 3, and just want it to stick around. HH for next tues. looked a bit more strung out, but still plenty of time for that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I won't keep updating but my temperature continues to drop even though skies are overcast and it is not precipitating. I"m now down to 29.1 and headed down. One other thing that is noteworthy is that from this point forward my temperature is not forecast to rise above freezing for at least the next 7 consecutive days. That doesn't happen too much around these parts anymore. Just going by memory, I think the last such period of consecutive days below freezing was 11 back in January of either 2014 or 2015...which ever year was the brutal cold winter with the "polar vortex". With a high temp today of only 41.7 degrees I lost very little snowpack. I still have about 2.5" solid everywhere. Hopefully after tomorrow morning there will be another inch or two. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 @Itstrainingtimeis lucky. He shall live to see another snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Is it me or are the radar returns way more juicy the models suggested? I heard no talk of heavy rain downpours thunderstorm etc a bunch of deep greens yellows just down to out south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 CTP just reissued the Advisory a few minutes ago, so they seem confident. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201130- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.220120T0700Z-220120T1600Z/ Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 1028 PM EST Wed Jan 19 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EST THURSDAY... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From 2 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures will be falling steadily from the mid 30s at the onset of the snow to the mid and upper 20s during the peak morning commute hours. This will cause freezing of any untreated wet roads, as a result of the initial snow melting on the warmer paved surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: I won't keep updating but my temperature continues to drop even though skies are overcast and it is not precipitating. I"m now down to 29.1 and headed down. One other thing that is noteworthy is that from this point forward my temperature is not forecast to rise above freezing for at least the next 7 consecutive days. That doesn't happen too much around these parts anymore. Just going by memory, I think the last such period of consecutive days below freezing was 11 back in January of either 2014 or 2015...which ever year was the brutal cold winter with the "polar vortex". With a high temp today of only 41.7 degrees I lost very little snowpack. I still have about 2.5" solid everywhere. Hopefully after tomorrow morning there will be another inch or two. During the winter of 2017-18, we had 364 consecutive hours below freezing, from 12/25/17 to 1/9/18. MDT set record lows of -2 and -1 on January 1 & 3, respectively. I recorded my lowest ever temp on my home station of -5.2 at 6:38am on January 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: During the winter of 2017-18, we had 364 consecutive hours below freezing, from 12/25/17 to 1/9/18. MDT set record lows of -2 and -1 on January 1 & 3, respectively. I recorded my lowest ever temp on my home station of -5.2 at 6:38am on January 1. Wow. Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be. So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well. 364/24=15 days + 4 hours. That's half a month! Impressive. I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows. Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol. Thanks for the info! I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data. He's always been pretty good with that stuff. PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees. Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Wow. Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be. So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well. 364/24=15 days + 4 hours. That's half a month! Impressive. I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows. Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol. Thanks for the info! I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data. He's always been pretty good with that stuff. PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees. Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries. Remarkable difference- I'm at 38.4! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 hours ago, Atomixwx said: @Itstrainingtimeis lucky. He shall live to see another snow. It took a superlative effort from Joel for them to win. 50 points in 27 minutes. That's sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 41.9 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Wow. Well I know my memory isn't quite what it used to be. So the time frame was quite a bit longer and it was more recently as well. 364/24=15 days + 4 hours. That's half a month! Impressive. I'm surprised I did not remember those sub-zero record lows. Instead of the snow being mush I think it's my brain beginning to turn...lol. Thanks for the info! I'm surprised I did not hear from @djr5001 with the historical data. He's always been pretty good with that stuff. PS>>My temp has been very slowly heading back higher and I'm now up to 31.6 degrees. Once the precip begins it will bring down the temperature with it so no worries. Oh don't worry it wasn't my memory that produced that haha. I had it noted in my spreadsheet that I use to track precip totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 How strange with the temp reversing from earlier. It's been very slowly rising and now is back above freezing at 33.1 degrees. I'm still not worried about much loss at the beginning. It won't take long for precip to become snow and start to accumulate. I see the radar is showing rain echoes over me right now but so far it's been dry. I'll be back in the morning (after 9:00) with a total measurement for whatever falls overnight. Off to bed for me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 34 and raining lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Went from 33 to 36um ok precipitation falling thought temps would go down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Welp its dead in here heh. My temp is now up to 38 temps were fore cast to go down. front passed 2 ish hours ago this is kind of sad lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 CTP again reissued this at 3:35 am, so they must still be confident at this time. Winter Weather Advisory URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 PAZ036-057-059-063>066-201600- /O.CON.KCTP.WW.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-220120T1600Z/ Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Harrisburg, Hershey, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 335 AM EST Thu Jan 20 2022 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING... * WHAT...Wet snow expected. Total snow accumulations of generally 1 to 2 inches. Spotty 3 inch totals will occur, mainly on hill tops. * WHERE...South Central and Southeastern Pennsylvania. * WHEN...Until 11 AM EST Thursday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The onset of the snow will be just before the morning commute begins, and temperatures will fall below freezing during the morning commute. At first, the snow will melt as it hits warmer paved surfaces. This will cause freezing of any untreated wet roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Radar is juicing up & back filling across south central PA, Hopefully we get a few hours of snow this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Here are CTP’s thoughts in their am discussion: NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... First wave moving off to the east and taking the light rain over the SE with it. A stronger short wave trough will move up through WV and nrn VA by morning. This will bring in a second batch of precip. By that time, almost everyone across the srn tier will be cold enough to have snow or a rain/snow mix for an hour or so before going to plain snow. Onset of snow still looks like 5-6AM for the SE, and some moderate rates (<1"/hr) are likely thru mid-morning. Keeping the forecast solid with 1-2" totals for most and a sprinkling of 3" numbers in there for the higher elevs SE of I-81. Temps across the entire CWA look like they will waggle only a couple of degrees all day long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Radar is juicing up & back filling across south central PA, Hopefully we get a few hours of snow this morning. raining here and on top of the cold ground it is ice, temp 34 it was 29@900pm last night. So it went up during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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