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Central PA - Winter 2021/2022


Bubbler86
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1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

HRRR was way too high at the surface out here.  Seems to be more correct further east in PA. 

nice as hoping it was a bit off with temps even if we can shave 5 off the top for today ill be near frz still 

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2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Geez, I'm up to 25 with no sign of the temp leveling off. Going to be a huge difference in weather between Lanco and areas N&W. 

really im right near Middletown obs at airport says 21 and im sitting at 20.

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1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Trying to figure this out, not that it's super important, but I'm just wondering why the discrepancy...

Here is the forecast for overnight for Nesquehoning, five miles away from me, in Carbon County. They have a winter storm warning...

Tonight

Snow and sleet before 1am, then freezing rain between 1am and 2am, then rain after 2am. The rain could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 37 by 5am. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
 
Then here is mine, and I only have an advisory...
 
Tonight
Snow, possibly mixed with freezing rain and sleet before 11pm, then snow and freezing rain between 11pm and midnight, then rain after midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Temperature rising to around 38 by 4am. Breezy, with an east wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 22 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
 
Yet, the criteria for a winter storm warning is the same for both counties, as evidenced by the map below..
NewWinterStorm12.thumb.png.8a6255c3edf276e233f64c9bad17e73f.png
If the criteria is the same for both counties, and we're forecasted to get more snow, then why do we have an advisory and they have a warning? To me, it doesn't make sense...

I believe I had it explained to me a few years ago that they have discretion to issue warning because of the ice when forecasted to be more than a glaze.

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