Central PA - Winter 2021/2022

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 

If there's a ton of sleet that's included in snowfall measurements, correct? So, if someone gets 5" of snow followed by 2" of sleet in the central mountains, then the a Winter Storm Warning would have verified. Or do I have that wrong?

See below though some of the more snowy models do not show much sleet in their precip panels. 

 

[Albedoman]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That looks pretty good to me. I wonder if the 1-3" area should be farther west, but he's a great met for a reason. I'm just a dumb HR guy. 

WTH. Does this guy know the definition of a blizzard? He needs to stop posting.

[pasnownut]

10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Nice.  

It was nice to see the jump to off Va with our SLP albeit brief.  Still 55 + hours out . If we can get that SLP to pop mini bumps further east northeast next 2 days it would probably limit how far northwest it gets tugged once the ns starts to influence it. The more latitude it gains se of us more likely it runs up through Chesapeake bay instead of Baltimore for instance.  

This is exactly why I've been posting the trend GIF's.  A couple subtle moves will make a notable diff. for many in here and quite frankly, a 50-75 mile shift, would affect 75% of this forum.  Its quite easy to see.  IF we can smooth out the SLP placements a bit and have less jumping around, the models might present a better (or worse ) solution.  

All of us are still in the game, and any further SE ticks would erode the warm nose at lower levels.  Further NW...we know the drill. 

Anything further SE in SLP placement at the minimum, would save many from Zr and keep sleet as likely flavor of taint.  NAM's have us cooked, but CMC/ICON/GFS/EURO are not far away from being back to decent.  At 48hrs away, anyone hangin there hat on anything right now is a bold move IMO.  If they get it right....props to them.  Just not ready to concede I guess.

[canderson]

19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I saw this gem shared on my F-book feed. S&S needs to get their head in the game lol

I spit out tea when I saw this image. 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Bubbler 

See the dual 984 Lows . If the eastern one was to take precidence over the west low that surely would help with the column. 

 

Yea, not many people have been talking about it and not totally sure why.  Watching the model panels the last few days, the "L" has been flipping and flopping all over the place and these were not always zigzags.  It was the model going toward any convective features or just picking one of the two for the L if both had the same pressure.   Watching the 850 and 500 maps showed the dual nature more clearly.  The dual nature sucks plain and simple.    The Nam has been leading the way with this being our primary forecasting issue (especially for Western PA)  but the storm is not here yet so it could be bunk come game time.   But like usual, the faster the we get on the west side of the primary circulation of air, the less our column takes a beating. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

I spit out tea when I saw this image. 

I literally had to read it 2x....then check to see if my iced tea was spiked....

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

This is exactly why I've been posting the trend GIF's.  A couple subtle moves will make a notable diff. for many in here and quite frankly, a 50-75 mile shift, would affect 75% of this forum.  Its quite easy to see.  IF we can smooth out the SLP placements a bit and have less jumping around, the models might present a better (or worse ) solution.  

All of us are still in the game, and any further SE ticks would erode the warm nose at lower levels.  Further NW...we know the drill. 

Anything further SE in SLP placement at the minimum, would save many from Zr and keep sleet as likely flavor of taint.  NAM's have us cooked, but CMC/ICON/GFS/EURO are not far away from being back to decent.  At 48hrs away, anyone hangin there hat on anything right now is a bold move IMO.  If they get it right....props to them.  Just not ready to concede I guess.

The Euro says to concede nothing.

Here are CTP close of of 12z Euro both 10-1 & Kuchera.

 

[Bubbler86]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro says to concede nothing.

Here are CTP close of of 12z Euro both 10-1 & Kuchera.

 

 

 

Not many concedes in here.   

[Bubbler86]

Not much time to get off this complicated situation but may be right back in the same boat next weekend. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not many concedes in here.   

I definitely conceded 

[pasnownut]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Agree .

And as far as mesos go I'm not putting much stock in them until 12z tomorrow morning runs . Not that they couldn't be right but inside 36 I'll give them more weight. 

Mesos did not do well for us here in SE last event.  Many were showing 4+ 6+ additional and peeps were posting them....we all saw it.  

We got maybe 1-2 add'l at best....and that was inside 6hrs, so yeah, Mesos are gonna need to do well with this one for me (or others) to put much stock in them.  

[canderson]

Wasn't there a storm recently that was to feature heavy sleet that the Euro was showing as snow? 2019 maybe? 

[Bubbler86]

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

I definitely conceded 

You turned into a part timer. 

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The Euro says to concede nothing.

Here are CTP close of of 12z Euro both 10-1 & Kuchera.

 

In truth, the Euro is slowly ticking W with best accums, and based on current maps...it makes perfect sense.  I'm just saying, that w/ 8 more model runs till go time...50-75 miles is really nothing in the scope of things...and that scope is right over many of our houses.  

 

I'm away for the weekend.  Have fun tracking.  See yall Sunday....and hopefully it'll be a fun day..

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

I definitely conceded 

uh oh....did Fla turn you into a warmie??

If so, Voyager welcomes you to his team 

 

Hope vaca was great bud.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

You turned into a part timer. 

I know I needed a break after last weekend I will a part timer next week as well, but I want to hear about all the snow amounts in the area and then I am fully back.

[paweather]

Just now, pasnownut said:

uh oh....did Fla turn you into a warmie??

If so, Voyager welcomes you to his team 

 

Hope vaca was great bud.

Thanks we leave tomorrow that is why I said it but thanks again. 

[pasnownut]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Wasn't there a storm recently that was to feature heavy sleet that the Euro was showing as snow? 2019 maybe? 

I'm not sure.  Most models dont do a great job of showing snow vs sleet.  Need to look at model soundings for better look at thermal profile to see how deep/shallow critical layers are.  

[MAG5035]

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as this storm approaches and this becomes a matter the low track and the cold boundary. The mix period will come and depend on how far in the screaming 850mb jet adverts >0ºC air aloft. 925mb and surface eventually will get compromised for a time too in some of the LSV (esp further south and east) which will probably invite a change to rain but that could be after best precip. 

Let’s go on a deep dive, we’ll do the Euro and NAM side by side. 

Surface

850mb winds

850mb temps

So okay the NAM has a stronger 850mb jet deeper into PA and more robust advection. Let’s look at 925mb temps.

Look how cold the 925mb layer is, no way that is a widespread ZR profile. Surface temps from KAOO west to Pitt are still in the mid 20s in this frame. We could be talking more widespread sleet maybe at some point in the storm if the more robust warming aloft of the NAM comes to fruition but not straight heavy freezing rain from H-burg to Pitt. This strong 850mb jet and inside low track has been a concern of mine, but to counter this the storm is progressive. There’s no blocking up front to slow this down/cut it off and add more time to advect in warm air. This storm is also deepening pretty decently as it is approaching us so that warm nose will get however far it gets into PA but then as the low gets into (or hopefully just SE of PA).. the maturing system will be cooling the column top down. This whole event’s in about a 12 to maybe 18hr duration range.

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as this storm approaches and this becomes a matter the low track and the cold boundary. The mix period will come and depend on how far in the screaming 850mb jet adverts >0ºC air aloft. 925mb and surface eventually will get compromised for a time too in some of the LSV (esp further south and east) which will probably invite a change to rain but that could be after best precip. 

Let’s go on a deep dive, we’ll do the Euro and NAM side by side. 

Surface

850mb winds

 

850mb temps

 

So okay the NAM has a stronger 850mb jet deeper into PA and more robust advection. Let’s look at 925mb temps.

 

Look how cold the 925mb layer is, no way that is a widespread ZR profile. Surface temps from KAOO west to Pitt are still in the mid 20s in this frame. We could be talking more widespread sleet maybe at some point in the storm if the more robust warming aloft of the NAM comes to fruition but not straight heavy freezing rain from H-burg to Pitt. This strong 850mb jet and inside low track has been a concern of mine, but to counter this the storm is progressive. There’s no blocking up front to slow this down/cut it off and add more time to advect in warm air. This storm is also deepening pretty decently as it is approaching us so that warm nose will get however far it gets into PA but then as the low gets into (or hopefully just SE of PA).. the maturing system will be cooling the column top down. This whole event’s in about a 12 to maybe 18hr duration range.

Do not have the time to try and crack the code but would be interested to hear if someone can point out that the Nam algorithms are broken or there is something causing it to melt more than it looks like it should from the surface. But like you said, this is all digital and all that matters is the intrusion on the different layers.  Both support change over from snow for most of the LSV and near by counties to the West. 

[kerplunk]

10 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

We can debate how far into PA the warm air aloft punches but I simply do not buy the NAM’s expansive freezing rain.    This isn’t really a setup for a deep swath of ice IMO, the high moves east as this storm approaches and this becomes a matter the low track and the cold boundary. The mix period will come and depend on how far in the screaming 850mb jet adverts >0ºC air aloft. 925mb and surface eventually will get compromised for a time too in some of the LSV (esp further south and east) which will probably invite a change to rain but that could be after best precip. 

Let’s go on a deep dive, we’ll do the Euro and NAM side by side. 

Surface

850mb winds

850mb temps

So okay the NAM has a stronger 850mb jet deeper into PA and more robust advection. Let’s look at 925mb temps.

Look how cold the 925mb layer is, no way that is a widespread ZR profile. Surface temps from KAOO west to Pitt are still in the mid 20s in this frame. We could be talking more widespread sleet maybe at some point in the storm if the more robust warming aloft of the NAM comes to fruition but not straight heavy freezing rain from H-burg to Pitt. This strong 850mb jet and inside low track has been a concern of mine, but to counter this the storm is progressive. There’s no blocking up front to slow this down/cut it off and add more time to advect in warm air. This storm is also deepening pretty decently as it is approaching us so that warm nose will get however far it gets into PA but then as the low gets into (or hopefully just SE of PA).. the maturing system will be cooling the column top down. This whole event’s in about a 12 to maybe 18hr duration range.

Great explanation and comparison. The side-by-side really helped. Much appreciated.

[TimB]

40 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Not much time to get off this complicated situation but may be right back in the same boat next weekend. 

Noticed things don’t look as deep cold but more garden variety winter cold in that timeframe. Didn’t have time to investigate why, but usually those kinds of changes are brought on by something interesting.

[MAG5035]

7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Do not have the time to try and crack the code but would be interested to hear if someone can point out that the Nam algorithms are broken or there is something causing it to melt more than it looks like it should from the surface. But like you said, this si all digital and all that matters is the intrusion on the different layers.  Both support change over from snow for most of the LSV and near by counties to the West. 

Yea, ultimately unless this low track can bump east to at least maybe tracking through Philly.. the big thing for the LSV is how much can they get up front as that region is going to be subject to being advected out all the way to the surface with strong ESE flow from the inside tracking low, with York/Lancaster being the most vulnerable to an earlier transition. It was my original presumption that if this low was going to stay on the right side of the Apps that we would see the best pressure falls closer to the coast and the low pressure doing the same. That late shortwave dropping down from the Lakes does kind of force this thing’s hand to come straight up instead of escaping east or northeast, so hopefully we can see that. There is still time. 

[Bubbler86]

6 minutes ago, TimB84 said:

Noticed things don’t look as deep cold but more garden variety winter cold in that timeframe. Didn’t have time to investigate why, but usually those kinds of changes are brought on by something interesting.

I looked at one map and it the same Low swinging through the deep south situation. 

[Bubbler86]

[Bubbler86]

2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea, ultimately unless this low track can bump east to at least maybe tracking through Philly.. the big thing for the LSV is how much can they get up front as that region is going to be subject to being advected out all the way to the surface with strong ESE flow from the inside tracking low, with York/Lancaster being the most vulnerable to an earlier transition. It was my original presumption that if this low was going to stay on the right side of the Apps that we would see the best pressure falls closer to the coast and the low pressure doing the same. That late shortwave dropping down from the Lakes does kind of force this thing’s hand to come straight up instead of escaping east or northeast, so hopefully we can see that. There is still time. 

Anytime I see sleet getting into SW PA, I know I am toast unless something to my east starts deepening rapidly and closing off the assault.   Like you said, its not depicted to the east right now.  Its coming in right overhead. 

[Cashtown_Coop]

1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said:

Anytime I see sleet getting into SW PA, I know I am toast unless something to my east starts deepening rapidly and closing off the assault.   Like you said, its not depicted to the east right now.  Its coming in right overhead. 

See it to believe it kinda deal for me 

[Bubbler86]

Man, to look at the Nam 36, I would think we are going to be getting a Hec's.   High over NY, low in the gulf.  S/W in Canada. 

[TimB]

2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Man, to look at the Nam 36, I would think we are going to be getting a Hec's.   High over NY, low in the gulf.  S/W in Canada. 

Hope it doesn’t show a *** of freezing rain again.

[paweather]

3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Man, to look at the Nam 36, I would think we are going to be getting a Hec's.   High over NY, low in the gulf.  S/W in Canada. 

I was just thinking that what a great look for a HECS